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The Lucky Last A1/A2 525
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Bluejig Teddyd 3y 24 | - | - | 50 | - | 96 (1) | 81 (4) | 85 (3) | 48 (4) | 79 (2) | 89 (1) | 52 (5) | 63 (4) | 74 (2) | 93 (1) | 21 | 39 | - | 44 | 78 | 51 | 4 | 5/2 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Highview Flareb 2y 14 | Liam O'Rourke — 5% R41 W2 P20 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 57 | - | 67 (5) | 66 (5) | 57 (6) | 70 (4) | 94 (1) | 69 (4) | 80 (1) | 82 (1) | 69 (3) | 48 (6) | 28 | - | 17 | 37 | 70 | 47 | 3 | 4/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Carrickhill Viewd 2y 14 | David Murray — 17% R70 W12 P45 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | - | 89 (2) | 88 (3) | 97 (1) | 97 (1) | 61 (5) | 52 (6) | 71 (3) | 42 (4) | 62 (5) | 58 (3) | 18 | 44 | 12 | 31 | 78 | 54 | 1 | 1/1F | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Rearin N Tearinb 2y 25 | Joe Ivory — 18% R11 W2 P10 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | - | 85 (3) | 93 (1) | 88 (2) | 71 (3) | 74 (4) | 96 (1) | 88 (1) | 65 (2) | 80 (1) | 66 (3) | 2 | 52 | - | 42 | 83 | 54 | 2 | 6/4 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Bailie Boyd 3y 14 | Paddy McCormack — 14% R7 W1 P3 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 32 | - | 52 (6) | 82 (3) | 97 (1) | 57 (4) | 73 (4) | 96 (1) | 71 (4) | 70 (4) | 73 (3) | 50 (6) | - | 38 | - | 31 | 73 | 41 | 6 | 4/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Creevy Wishd 1y 25 | Gerard Quigley — 17% R6 W1 P3 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 41 | - | 84 (1) | 59 (5) | 56 (3) | 65 (1) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 33 | 20 | - | 35 | 67 | 42 | 5 | 4/5 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Rearin N Tearin | 28.88 | 29.34 | 28.88 | 52 | 0.00 | Model pick | |
| 3 | Carrickhill View | 28.90 | 29.35 | 28.90 | 51 | 0.00 | Best track suit | |
| 1 | Bluejig Teddy | 28.94 | 29.27 | 29.01 | 50 | +0.07 | Steps up from A2 | |
| 2 | Highview Flare | 28.88 | 29.08 | 28.88 | 57 | 0.00 | Fastest speed rating | |
| 5 | Bailie Boy | 28.91 | 29.59 | 29.86 | 32 | +0.95 | Slowest last run | |
| 6 | Creevy Wish | 29.04 | 29.64 | 29.04 | 41 | 0.00 | Big class rise |
This is the top race of the night at Mullingar, run at the track's highest grade over the standard 525 metres, and unlike the debutant heats earlier on the card there is a wealth of genuine, proven form to work with here. The venue carries no logged first-bend interference data, so the running order has to be read through form and rating rather than trap notes, but the trap split for this grade shows the black jacket and stripes as the leading boxes historically and the orange jacket the weakest, for what a sample of only a few dozen runs is worth at this level. Rearin N Tearin from the black jacket and Carrickhill View from the white jacket have been racing right at the head of this grade in recent weeks and should share the pace between them, with Bluejig Teddy from the red jacket fresh off an eye-catching win at the level below and capable of matching strides if the step up suits. The likely storyline is a straight fight between the two most battle-hardened dogs in the field, with the class-rise runners further back needing everything to go right just to be competitive at this level.
Carries the highest average rating in this whole field and the form to match it — six races running at this exact top grade and trip, never dipping much below the low 70s and touching the mid-90s twice in that spell, capped by a solid third-placed effort last time out. That is genuine, proven top-grade substance rather than a flash in the pan. Trainer Joe Ivory has the best strike rate of any connection in this field at just over one in five, a real positive at the top level where every edge counts. The suitability figures back it up too — strong readings for both track and distance at this course, even though the trap-specific figure is modest. Sits mid-table on the recorded time, not the outright fastest, but with the strongest all-round rating and form package in the race, the pace gap is not enough to change the pick.
Runner-up last time out at this exact grade and trip, and the run before that produced back-to-back ratings in the high 90s — as strong a recent peak as anything else in this race. Matches the top selection on the overall rating and carries the best track suitability reading of anyone in the field at this course, a genuine structural positive. Trainer David Murray's record in these conditions is modest, around one in eight. The recorded time is competitive without being the standout in the field. Consistently placed at the very front of this grade recently and matching the selection on the raw rating — the clearest threat if the pace goes its way.
Won last time out, but that victory came two grades below tonight's level — a much softer test than what awaits here, and with only four recorded runs in total this is a genuinely inexperienced dog being asked a serious question in one big leap. The rating from that win doesn't translate cleanly to this level, and the earlier form in that short career was modest by comparison. Carries a fair suitability reading at this course. Trainer Gerard Quigley has a fair strike rate in these conditions. A sharp rise in class off limited experience makes this genuinely hard to call — either the raw talent that produced an easy win at the lower level carries through, or the step up in class proves too much too soon.
Won impressively last time out at the grade below with an excellent rating, but steps up to face this level for the first time tonight, which is a genuine test — winning well at the grade below doesn't automatically transfer to holding your own here. The underlying form across six runs has been strong regardless, rarely dipping far and touching the high 80s more than once. Carries a fair suitability reading at this course for both track and distance. No trainer statistics are logged for this connection. A big step up off the back of a genuinely eye-catching win — the sort of booking that can go either way, and worth watching closely in the market.
Finished fifth last time out at this exact grade and trip, disappointing given a big rating in the mid-90s a few runs back showed real ability is there. The recorded time is the second-quickest in the field, so the pace itself isn't the issue. Trainer Liam O'Rourke's record in these conditions is the weakest of any connection in this race. Carries a reasonable distance suitability reading at this course. The raw ability has been shown before, but the below-par latest run and the modest trainer record leave this some way below the leading pair tonight.
Well beaten last time out at this grade, a real low point in a form line that has otherwise touched the mid-to-high 90s twice in the last six runs — the volatility here is extreme, ranging from the best figures in the race down to the worst. The recorded time is comfortably the slowest of any runner tonight, which is the biggest concern. Trainer Paddy McCormack has a fair strike rate in these conditions. Genuine ability has been shown in patches, but the inconsistency and the weak recent time make this too hard to trust with real confidence tonight.
Key insight: The top-rated dog wins better than one in three at this grade and trip — a genuinely strong hit rate for the ratings, albeit from a modest sample — and tonight's race sees two runners essentially tied on that rating, which is what makes this the most competitive heat on the card.
Trap 6 best at 28.57% and trap 4 close behind at 26.67%; trap 5 has drawn a blank from 15 runs.
85 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 525m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 525m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (525m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 400m | 525m | 550m | 575m | 600m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bluejig Teddy | 0.546 | 0.557 | — | — | — |
| 2 | Highview Flare | — | 0.553 | 0.554 | 0.552 | 0.560 |
| 3 | Carrickhill View | 0.553 | 0.557 | — | — | — |
| 4 | Rearin N Tearin | — | 0.559 | — | — | — |
| 5 | Bailie Boy | — | 0.564 | — | — | — |
| 6 | Creevy Wish | — | 0.565 | — | — | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.