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The Join The Track Supporters Club A4/A5 525
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Rosies Flashb 1y 23 | - | - | 48 | - | 51 (6) | 52 (5) | 67 (1) | 40 (4) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 3 | 23 | - | 20 | 53 | 35 | 3 | 2/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Another Jimjoed 1y 21 | - | - | - | - | 59 (3) | 55 (3) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 57 | 25 | 1 | 2/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Glamorous Queenb 1y 21 | Brian Reilly — 39% R18 W7 P10 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | - | - | 56 (3) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 3 | - | - | - | 56 | 29 | 4 | 4/7 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Blackberry Lassb 2y 55 | - | - | 52 | - | 34 (6) | 60 (4) | 55 (5) | 46 (6) | 74 (2) | 78 (1) | 60 (2) | 71 (2) | 63 (3) | 86 (1) | 49 | 53 | 41 | 46 | 58 | 27 | 5 | 3/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Ballyhealy Tomd 1y 36 | Joe Ivory — 18% R11 W2 P10 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 69 | - | 60 (3) | 65 (3) | 65 (3) | 53 (6) | 68 (1) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 62 | 39 | 2 | 2/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Icecool Chanelb 2y 35 | - | - | 28 | - | 53 (5) | 53 (4) | 62 (2) | 54 (3) | 51 (5) | 60 (2) | 65 (3) | 61 (2) | 82 (1) | 55 (2) | 32 | 42 | 25 | 38 | 57 | 21 | 6 | 3/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ballyhealy Tom | No proven 525m form — all recorded races over 350m. Times not directly comparable. | — | 350m -> 525m | ||||
| 4 | Blackberry Lass | 29.22 | 29.70 | 29.64 | 52 | +0.42 | Best trap | |
| 1 | Rosies Flash | 29.41 | 29.70 | 29.69 | 48 | +0.28 | 0 wins from 4 | |
| 6 | Icecool Chanel | 29.77 | 30.00 | 30.31 | 28 | +0.54 | 325m -> 525m | |
| 3 | Glamorous Queen | No recorded time — one graded start only. | — | No time on file | ||||
| 2 | Another Jimjoe | No recorded time on file yet. | — | No time on file | ||||
Mullingar runs solely over 525 and 600 metres, with no logged first-bend interference data for the venue, so the draw and the raw clock have to carry the analysis. At A4 grade over 525 metres the black jacket has been the standout box, winning close to one in five, while traps two and five have lagged around one in ten — a meaningful spread worth building the race around. This is also an unusually mixed field: two runners jump up from novice company with next to no graded experience, and two more step up sharply from 350-metre sprint trips with zero proven form at tonight's distance, so the readable, proven form is actually concentrated in just a couple of runners. Blackberry Lass gets the nod from the best draw in the race and the strongest all-round course-and-distance profile, but keep a close eye on the market for Ballyhealy Tom — the fastest dog in the race on paper, purely on speed carried over from a much shorter trip, and capable of making this look easy if that pace translates over the extra ground.
Last time out was a well-beaten sixth, but that run came over 600 metres, a longer trip entirely — drop her back to 525 metres tonight and a very different picture emerges, because the suitability figures built up over a much longer history at this exact course and distance are among the strongest in the race across the board: track, class, trap and distance all rate well above what anything else here can show. Drawn in the black jacket, which has been the single best box in this grade and trip at Mullingar, winning close to one in five compared with barely one in ten from the next-worst draw. The recorded time is solid too, only just behind the fastest in the race and clearly the fastest among the runners with genuine, proven form at this trip. Form over the last six starts has been up and down — a couple of big efforts mixed with the odd flat run — but the best of it, several rated in the high 70s, shows the underlying ability is there when things click. The combination of the best draw in the field and the strongest all-round course-and-distance profile makes this the most complete case in the race, even without topping the raw ratings.
Four runs on file at this exact grade and trip, form that has bounced around — a big effort rated in the high 60s three starts back, but well beaten last time out. Carries the second-highest rating of the proven runners in this field and is a fair way up the speed table too, only a fraction slower than the best of the confirmed 525-metre form. Drawn in the red jacket, an average box for this grade and trip — not a help, not a hindrance. This dog's own personal record from that specific draw has been modest, which tempers the trap picture slightly even though the raw pace and rating are competitive. A perfectly solid case built on rating and pace rather than any standout structural edge, and the obvious form horse if the draw specialist in the black jacket doesn't fire.
On the raw numbers this is the pick by a distance — the highest rating in the race, comfortably the fastest recorded time, and a trainer with a fair record in these conditions — but every one of those figures comes from racing over 350 metres, a sprint trip barely two-thirds of tonight's distance, and there is no record at all of this dog handling 525 metres. That is a genuine unknown, not a minor caveat: a dog that has never raced beyond a sharp sprint trying to settle into a much longer test for the first time can go either way, and the suitability figures for this course and distance sit at zero because there is simply nothing there to measure. Trainer Joe Ivory has a fair record in these conditions historically, which offers some reassurance about placement, but that's a team record, not evidence this individual stays. If the raw pace translates over the longer trip this walks it; if it doesn't, the extra ground could catch it out entirely — genuinely impossible to call with confidence either way, which is exactly what a wildcard looks like.
Six runs on file, all fairly consistent in the low-to-mid 50s, but every one of them came over 325 metres — another sprinter stepping up markedly in trip tonight, much like the wildcard in trap five. Unlike that rival, though, this one does carry a reasonable suitability profile at this course, class and distance, suggesting there may be a little more to go on here despite the shorter recent form. The recorded time is the slowest in the race, which is unsurprising given it comes from sprint company rather than this trip. Drawn in the white-and-black jacket at the widest station, which has been a below-average box in this grade and trip. The distance step-up and modest pace figures leave this some way behind the leading contenders tonight.
Just one graded run on record, a third-place finish at novice grade last month — genuinely limited evidence for a dog stepping straight up into this company tonight, and that single number shouldn't be treated as an established level. What does stand out is the trainer: Brian Reilly's record in these conditions is the strongest of any connection in this race by some distance, which suggests this runner has been placed here with real confidence. No recorded time exists yet to compare against the pace of the rest of the field. Drawn in an average box for this grade and trip. A case built entirely on trainer confidence rather than proven form — worth noting for that reason alone, but too thin on data to trust fully.
Two graded runs on file, both at novice grade rather than this level, with a third-place finish last time out — a step up into tougher company tonight with minimal evidence to judge how it will hold up. No recorded time or trainer statistics are available to add any further context. Drawn in an average box for this grade and trip, neither helping nor hurting the case. With so little to go on and a genuine rise in class, this is very much an each-way watch rather than a confident selection.
Key insight: The fastest dog on the clock at this grade and trip wins close to 29% of the time — one of the strongest speed signals anywhere on this card — but tonight's fastest recorded time belongs to a runner with zero proven form at the distance, which complicates a straightforward speed-first read.
Trap 4 best at 18.52% (135 runs), traps 2 and 5 weakest around 10.4-10.7%.
809 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 525m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 525m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (525m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 325m | 350m | 400m | 525m | 600m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rosies Flash | — | — | — | 0.569 | — |
| 2 | Another Jimjoe | — | — | — | 0.567 | — |
| 3 | Glamorous Queen | — | — | — | 0.570 | — |
| 4 | Blackberry Lass | — | — | — | 0.566 | 0.578 |
| 5 | Ballyhealy Tom | — | 0.556 | 0.556 | — | — |
| 6 | Icecool Chanel | 0.562 | — | 0.550 | 0.571 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.