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The Comerford Bros A4/A5 600 Round 1 Heat 1
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Breffni Scardyb 3y 36 | - | - | 67 | - | 61 (3) | 67 (4) | 74 (3) | 82 (2) | 68 (4) | 73 (3) | 57 (4) | 81 (1) | 70 (3) | 68 (3) | 42 | 44 | 17 | - | 69 | 43 | 2 | 6/4 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Swift Yolandib 3y 23 | Ian Reilly — 16% R63 W10 P29 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | - | 65 (2) | 82 (1) | 53 (4) | 79 (1) | 50 (4) | 65 (2) | 58 (4) | 61 (4) | 61 (5) | 81 (1) | 20 | 33 | 14 | - | 66 | 33 | 3 | 2/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Antepost Ellieb 1y 24 | - | - | 37 | - | 57 (2) | 64 (3) | 54 (2) | 57 (3) | 45 (4) | 55 (3) | 45 (3) | 44 (5) | 42 (5) | 42 (6) | - | 9 | - | - | 53 | 17 | 4 | 3/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Super Trouperd 2y 26 | - | - | 50 | - | 90 (1) | 85 (1) | 63 (5) | 70 (2) | 82 (1) | 73 (2) | 37 (6) | 66 (2) | 53 (6) | 53 (6) | 45 | 59 | 46 | 51 | 72 | 56 | 1 | 4/5F | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Breffni Scardy | 33.06 | 33.50 | 34.03 | 67 | +0.97 | 525m -> 600m | |
| 2 | Nextoneout | No 600m form — recent run over 750m. Times not directly comparable. | — | 750m -> 600m | ||||
| 6 | Super Trouper | 33.76 | 33.89 | 33.98 | 50 | +0.22 | Model pick | |
| 3 | Swift Yolandi | 33.80 | 33.80 | 33.80 | 54 | 0.00 | 525m -> 600m | |
| 5 | Lahinch Toby | 34.02 | 34.02 | 34.02 | 43 | 0.00 | 525m -> 600m | |
| 4 | Antepost Ellie | 33.78 | 34.32 | 34.23 | 37 | +0.45 | Slowest in field | |
Mullingar's 600-metre races are a rare slot on the card here — barely three dozen runs exist on file for this exact grade and trip, nowhere near enough to trust any single trap or ratings pattern, and in that small sample the top-rated dog and the fastest dog on the clock have both drawn a blank so far. That thinness runs through all three staying races on tonight's card, so course-and-distance suitability, class movement and recent peak form are doing more of the heavy lifting here than the usual trap-and-speed read. Breffni Scardy from the red jacket and Super Trouper from the black jacket both have the pace to be involved early, and with so little reliable draw data to hang a running order on, this looks set to be decided by class and recent form rather than trap position. Super Trouper's drop out of A3 grade and clearly superior suitability profile give it the strongest all-round case, but Breffni Scardy's rock-solid recent form makes it the obvious danger if the class-dropper takes time to find its feet at the trip. Nextoneout is the wildcard that could turn the whole thing on its head if its marathon-trip class translates down to a standard staying test.
Won impressively last time out with the best rating anyone in this field has produced recently, and while that win came over the shorter 525-metre trip rather than tonight's distance, the underlying suitability picture at this course and distance is the strongest in the race by some way — track, class and distance figures all rate well clear of the rest of the field, suggesting genuine proven history over this exact trip at Mullingar even though the most recent line was run shorter. Also drops back in from A3 grade, tougher company than tonight's, which is a real positive when assessing what this dog is capable of at this level. Form across the last six starts has been consistently strong, several of them rated in the 70s and 80s, with barely a poor run in the mix. The trap data at this grade and trip is far too thin to lean on with any confidence, but for what it's worth the black jacket has a moderate record from a handful of runs. Between the class drop, the strong suitability profile and the sharp recent form, this stacks up as the most rounded case in the race even allowing for how little reliable data exists at 600 metres here.
Finished third last time out over the shorter 525-metre trip with a solid rating, and the six-run form line reads consistently well — nothing below the mid-60s in recent memory and a couple of runs rated in the 80s along the way. Carries a fair suitability profile at this course and distance, with the track figure standing out as a genuine positive even without a strong class rating. Sits second on the recorded time in the field too, not far off the pace of the top selection. No trainer statistics are logged for this connection. A consistent, well-founded case built on genuinely solid recent form rather than any one standout number — the clearest form threat to the selection tonight.
Won impressively last time out with a big rating, but that run came over 750 metres — an extreme marathon trip, nothing like tonight's 600 metres — and drops down from A3 grade, a step in the right direction on paper. The form before that win is genuinely volatile, swinging from the high 80s down into the low 40s and back up again, which makes this a hard dog to pin down. Trainer Fraser Black has a fair record in these conditions, which lends some credibility to the placement. With such a wide spread between the marathon win and the standard 600-metre test tonight, and no recent form at anything close to this trip, this is genuinely difficult to assess — a dog that could easily be too good for this grade on class, or could simply find the switch in trip unsettling.
Placed second last time out over the shorter 525-metre trip, and the recent form has been volatile — a big effort in the low 80s a few runs back but plenty of average performances mixed in. Carries a moderate suitability reading at this course, though the distance figure shows no proven record at 600 metres specifically. Trainer Ian Reilly has a modest strike rate in these conditions. A fair, honest sort without a standout structural edge in a race where several rivals carry stronger course-and-distance credentials.
Finished fourth last time out over 525 metres with a decent rating, and the six-run form line has been fair without ever hitting the heights of the leading contenders tonight — a best effort in the high 70s a handful of races back. Suitability at this course is moderate, with no proven record specifically at 600 metres. No trainer statistics are available for this connection. Drawn in a box that the tiny sample at this grade and trip suggests has struggled, though that reading should be treated with real caution given how few races have been run. A workmanlike sort without the standout profile of the leading two or three in this field.
Steps up from A5 grade off a second-place finish over 525 metres, a modest but reasonably consistent run of form in the mid-50s across the last six starts. Carries the lowest rating of anyone in this field and the slowest recorded time too, which is a real concern stepping up in class tonight. No trainer statistics are logged. Drawn in the trap that the small local sample rates best for this grade and trip, which is the one thing working in this runner's favour, though the sample itself is too thin to lean on heavily. A step up in grade off modest recent form makes this a tough ask against the leading contenders.
Key insight: Only 35 runs exist on file for this exact grade and trip, and in that tiny sample neither the top-rated dog nor the fastest dog on the clock has won yet — a genuine case where suitability, class movement and recent peak form have to do the work instead of the usual ratings-and-trap read.
Sample far too thin to trust (5-7 runs per trap) — trap 4 shows 33% and trap 1 shows 0% from tiny counts, neither remotely reliable.
35 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 600m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 600m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (600m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 525m | 550m | 600m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Breffni Scardy | 0.559 | 0.557 | — |
| 2 | Swift Yolandi | 0.567 | — | 0.563 |
| 4 | Antepost Ellie | 0.572 | — | — |
| 5 | Super Trouper | 0.566 | 0.572 | 0.565 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.