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The Comerford Bros A4/A5 600 Round 1 Heat 3
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Trapper Shadowd 1yN/R 32 | - | - | 41 | - | 37 (6) | 84 (1) | 43 (6) | 64 (4) | 71 (2) | 56 (6) | 83 (1) | 53 (3) | 47 (3) | 49 (3) | - | 27 | 22 | - | 58 | 29 | - | - | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Burj Azizid 1y 23 | Ian Reilly — 16% R63 W10 P29 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 61 | - | 83 (1) | 72 (2) | 60 (4) | 78 (1) | 74 (2) | 46 (5) | 47 (5) | 75 (1) | 68 (2) | 56 (3) | 20 | 43 | 32 | - | 69 | 39 | 2 | 1/2F | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Apache Robinb 3y 33 | - | - | 42 | - | 63 (3) | 52 (4) | 53 (4) | 74 (2) | 77 (1) | 61 (4) | 64 (2) | 65 (1) | 52 (4) | 47 (4) | 23 | 26 | 10 | - | 61 | 28 | 1 | 4/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Killeshil Messid 3y 23 | Vincent Lynch — 29% R24 W7 P15 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 57 | - | 67 (3) | 72 (3) | 68 (3) | 66 (4) | 83 (1) | 74 (2) | 61 (3) | 50 (5) | 70 (2) | 62 (2) | 24 | 37 | 11 | - | 68 | 38 | 5 | 6/4 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Fahy Shopd 4y 42 | Paddy McCormack — 14% R7 W1 P3 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | - | 55 (6) | 66 (4) | 64 (4) | 64 (4) | 82 (1) | 68 (3) | 69 (2) | 76 (1) | 59 (2) | 50 (6) | 37 | 35 | 12 | 23 | 65 | 30 | 3 | 5/2 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Brynoffa Samueld 4y 32 | - | - | 37 | - | 43 (5) | 59 (5) | 64 (4) | 60 (4) | 49 (5) | 50 (6) | 43 (6) | 67 (3) | 53 (6) | 56 (6) | - | - | - | - | 54 | 10 | 4 | 4/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Burj Azizi | 33.42 | 33.94 | 33.44 | 61 | +0.02 | Model pick | |
| 4 | Killeshil Messi | 33.34 | 33.89 | 33.87 | 57 | +0.53 | Drops from A3 | |
| 5 | Fahy Shop | 33.50 | 33.83 | 34.02 | 54 | +0.52 | Best suitability | |
| 3 | Apache Robin | 33.57 | 34.27 | 34.14 | 42 | +0.57 | 525m -> 600m | |
| 1 | Trapper Shadow | 33.33 | 34.07 | 34.73 | 41 | +1.40 | 0 wins from 6 | |
| 6 | Brynoffa Samuel | 33.63 | 34.27 | 34.45 | 37 | +0.82 | Steps up in grade |
The third and final 600-metre race of the night at Mullingar carries the same health warning as the two before it — barely three dozen runs exist on file for this exact grade and trip, so the trap and ratings patterns simply cannot be trusted with any real confidence. Recent form, class movement and genuine peak performances are the more reliable guides tonight. Burj Azizi from the blue jacket and Killeshil Messi from the black jacket both arrive in the sharpest form in the field and should be involved from the get-go, with little reliable trap data to suggest either draw is a hindrance. Burj Azizi's combination of the fastest recorded time, the strongest recent form and a genuine last-time win gives it the clearest case, with Killeshil Messi's drop out of tougher A3 company the obvious response if the pace doesn't go its way. The rest of this field have question marks over pace or grade rise that leave them some way behind the leading pair on the numbers available.
Won impressively last time out over 550 metres with the best rating this field has produced recently, and the six-run form line backs it up thoroughly — consistently in the 60s and 70s with barely a poor run in the mix. Tops this field on the clock too, the fastest recorded time of any runner tonight, and carries a fair suitability reading at this course with the track figure standing out as a genuine positive. Trainer Ian Reilly has a modest but respectable strike rate in these conditions. Every measure that matters — recent form, raw pace, course suitability — points the same way here, even allowing for how thin the overall sample is at this grade and trip. The most complete case in the race by some distance, built on genuine substance rather than a single standout number.
Drops down from A3 grade off a third-placed run at that tougher level, a genuine positive when weighing this dog against tonight's opposition. The six-run form line is strong and consistent, touching the low 80s a couple of runs back and rarely dipping below the mid-60s since. Trainer Vincent Lynch has a fair strike rate in these conditions, adding some further confidence. Carries the second-fastest recorded time in the field, not far behind the selection. The class drop combined with genuinely strong, consistent form makes this the clearest threat to the top selection tonight.
Well beaten last time out over 525 metres, but the run before that was considerably stronger, rated in the low 80s, and the overall six-run picture is fair rather than poor. Carries the most well-rounded suitability profile of the remaining runners, with track, class and distance figures all showing some positive signal at this course. Trainer Paddy McCormack has a fair strike rate in these conditions. A competitive time on the clock, sitting mid-pack for pace. A reasonable each-way case built on the suitability reading rather than the underwhelming latest run.
Finished third last time out over 525 metres with a fair rating, and the six-run form has been reasonably steady, touching the high 70s a few runs back. Carries a modest suitability reading at this course. No trainer statistics are logged for this connection. The recorded time sits towards the slower end of the field. A fair, honest sort without the standout structural case of the leading two tonight.
A well-beaten sixth last time out over 550 metres, though the form has been genuinely volatile — a big effort in the mid-80s sits alongside a couple of really poor runs in the recent picture. No meaningful trap suitability history is logged at this course. No trainer statistics are available either. The recorded time is well off the pace of the leading contenders. The volatility shows there is ability in there somewhere, but nothing reliable enough to build a case around tonight.
Steps up from A5 grade off a fifth-placed run at that easier level, with modest, unremarkable form across the last six starts. No meaningful suitability history is logged at this course. No trainer statistics are available. The recorded time is the slowest in the field. Facing a step up in grade with the weakest recent form on show — the outsider of the six tonight.
Key insight: The third 600m race of the night carries the same caveat as the first two — the sample at this grade and trip is too thin to trust — so the pick here leans on individual recent form, raw pace and suitability rather than the track's own ratings history.
Sample far too thin to trust (5-7 runs per trap) — no trap here has a large enough sample to build a genuine pattern from.
35 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 600m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (600m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 525m | 550m | 600m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trapper Shadow | 0.568 | 0.579 | — |
| 2 | Burj Azizi | 0.567 | 0.557 | — |
| 3 | Apache Robin | 0.571 | — | — |
| 4 | Killeshil Messi | 0.565 | — | — |
| 5 | Fahy Shop | 0.566 | — | 0.564 |
| 6 | Brynoffa Samuel | 0.571 | — | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.