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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Tickity Tillyb 5y 25 | S Atkinson — 20% R245 W50 P167 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 51 | 47 (5) | 70 (2) | 75 (1) | 55 (4) | 59 (3) | 64 (2) | 66 (2) | 46 (4) | 46 (5) | 50 (5) | 45 | 25 | 14 | 25 | 57 | 48 | 4 | 6/5F | |
| 2 | ▶ Bogger Cutieb 2y 14 | S Atkinson — 20% R245 W50 P167 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 43 | 67 (3) | 56 (4) | 79 (1) | 63 (2) | 77 (1) | 53 (4) | 56 (4) | 48 (4) | 56 (4) | 75 (1) | 25 | 36 | 35 | 14 | 62 | 49 | 3 | 7/2 | |
| 3 | ▶ Knackstarb 3yN/R 11 | G A Foot — 19% R294 W56 P170 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 40 | 47 | 81 (1) | 78 (1) | 53 (4) | 39 (6) | 49 (5) | 68 (2) | 66 (6) | 66 (2) | 64 (3) | - | 38 | 28 | 22 | 29 | 48 | 42 | - | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Caseys Barbrab 4y 25 | S Atkinson — 20% R245 W50 P167 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 46 | 71 (1) | 53 (3) | 43 (5) | 53 (4) | 71 (1) | 56 (2) | 61 (3) | 75 (1) | 50 (4) | 50 (4) | 23 | 15 | 23 | 16 | 59 | 45 | 2 | 9/4 | |
| 5 | ▶ Glenbowen Mabelb 2y 18 | M J Watson — 24% R46 W11 P28 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 62 | 100 (1) | 32 (2) | 22 (5) | 32 (1) | 65 (2) | 27 (2) | 61 (3) | 52 (4) | 29 (2) | 71 (1) | 40 | 44 | 18 | 34 | 53 | 48 | 5 | 6/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Kirstiethepenterb 2y 8 | R Rotherham — 13% R16 W2 P8 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 57 | 72 | 46 (4) | 61 (4) | 76 (1) | 57 (3) | 60 (3) | 56 (3) | 53 (5) | 54 (4) | 64 (2) | 75 (1) | 35 | 35 | 37 | 35 | 69 | 57 | 1 | 6/1 | |
Kirstiethepenter has the best avgP in the field at 69 and the most eye-catching pace metrics: EP 68, bend 72, and speed 57 — all field-leading numbers. She's a Fader (CS 31) which normally causes concern at 435m, but her class advantage is significant — avgP 69 is 10 points clear of the next best (Bogger Cutie at 62, who is a Closer from the dead draw). When a Fader's performance gap is this large (6+ above field average is the class override threshold, and she's 10 above the average), the class advantage means she fades from 1st to 1st rather than 1st to 6th. Recent form includes a 2nd at A4 (26.38s) and a 1st at A5 (26.92s), confirming she's competitive at this level and above. Her last run was a 2nd at a 245m trial (15.38s) which is irrelevant to 435m form — ignore it. The concern is the previous 19 in the last-5 (also a trial run). At her standard 435m distance, her form is strong and improving. Trainer Rotherham at 35% is strong-tier. T6 at 18.6% from 70 runs is neutral. The combination of best-in-field performance, elite early pace, strong trainer, and proven CD form makes her the pick despite the Fader tag.
DANGER: Dominant trap (24.0%) gives her a structural platform that partially compensates for the Closer disadvantage. At a grade where R2 outperforms R1, she's the structural upset candidate.
Honest sort who'll run her race from the rail. Mid-field form and modest suitability limit her ceiling — a place contender but unlikely to win.
Closer from the dead draw at the tightest track in the UK. The numbers simply don't support this combination regardless of raw ability.
Lowest rated dog in the field stepping up from A6. The form profile suggests he'll struggle for a place, let alone win.
Best suitability and good early pace but the Fader profile means she's vulnerable to being caught late. Place contender who could win if the pace holds, but too inconsistent (26-74 range) for confidence.
Unusual composite pattern — R2 (29.1%) massively outperforms R1 (16.3%). This suggests the top-rated dog at A5 is often overhyped. T4 is the dominant trap at 24.0% from 75 runs. Speed R1 wins 23.1% — speed matters here.
T1:19.1% T2:14.6% T3:19.6% T4:24.0% T5:18.2% T6:18.6%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 435m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Tickity Tilly | 53 | 54 | All-Rounder |
2Bogger Cutie | 0 | 100 | Closer |
3Knackstar | 47 | 46 | All-Rounder |
4Caseys Barbra | 0 | 100 | Closer |
5Glenbowen Mabel | 59 | 42 | Fader |
6Kirstiethepenter | 68 | 31 | Fader |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.