Reagrove Jenny is the pick despite facing a structural headwind from the weakest trap in the race. She has the strongest early pace in the field and showed that quality last week — leading from the start until the third bend before being overhauled. Her two most recent performances of 65 and 72 represent a significant bounceback from two very poor runs before that, suggesting she's found her form again at just the right time. She's a fader by nature and that's a concern at 491 metres, but when she's on her game, she sets fractions that the closers simply can't bridge. Her speed figures are the best in the field, and she could burn off the opposition before the stamina question arises.