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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Savana Ribenab 2y 15 | J M Ray — 16% R249 W39 P146 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 59 | 38 | 65 (3) | 69 (3) | 17 (4) | 77 (2) | 58 (4) | 72 (2) | 77 (3) | 79 (3) | 65 (3) | 82 (1) | 43 | 35 | 18 | 44 | 71 | 57 | 2 | 9/4 | |
| 2 | ▶ Droopys Halleyd 3y 33 | P S Rea — 17% R520 W86 P255 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 50 | 37 (5) | 67 (1) | 22 (1) | 22 (2) | 54 (5) | 71 (5) | 60 (3) | 51 (3) | 62 (5) | - | 16 | 20 | - | 24 | 62 | 43 | 5 | 5/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Canya Tickb 2yN/R 15 | P S Rea — 17% R520 W86 P255 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 33 | 51 | 34 (1) | 24 (3) | 34 (1) | 25 (4) | 21 (2) | 17 (4) | 25 (1) | 14 (5) | 58 (5) | - | 62 | 39 | 17 | 37 | 58 | 54 | - | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Keady Wineb 2y 35 | E Gowler — 25% R56 W14 P40 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 57 | 56 | 29 (4) | 60 (1) | 45 (3) | 50 (2) | 48 (3) | 60 (1) | 60 (1) | 14 (4) | 17 (2) | 97 (1) | 59 | 38 | 36 | 28 | 73 | 61 | 1 | 5/6F | |
| 5 | ▶ Malbay Thord 2y 12 | P S Rea — 17% R520 W86 P255 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 42 | 47 | 46 (5) | 45 (5) | 67 (1) | 45 (4) | 62 (1) | 19 (2) | 19 (2) | 13 (4) | 22 (5) | 63 (2) | 36 | 32 | 28 | 35 | 51 | 44 | 4 | 8/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Melbury Lokid 2y 110 | M P Brown — 21% R425 W89 P244 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 42 | 52 | 60 (1) | 37 (5) | 45 (3) | 38 (4) | 42 (4) | 38 (4) | 21 (4) | 11 (1) | 71 (6) | - | 26 | 29 | - | 29 | 55 | 43 | 3 | 7/1 | |
Keady Wine takes the projection with avgPerf 71 (joint-best with Canya Tick) and the strongest suitability profile in the race — track 46, trap 55, class 30. The trap suit of 55 from T4 is especially notable, meaning she's individually proven from this draw. Her Closer profile (EP 0, CS 67) is normally a red flag at Suffolk Downs, but with three confirmed Faders in this race (Canya Tick, Malbay Thor, Melbury Loki all at EP 100), there's a genuine chance the pace burns itself out. Recent form includes a spectacular 97 performance when winning at 548m — she's clearly got elite-level ability. But at 388m the reads are more mixed: 57 (5th), 67 (3rd), 52 (5th) — she struggles to convert her ability into results at this shorter trip on this tight track. T4 at 23.58% from 106 runs is a solid structural position. Trainer E Gowler at 32% is a strong-tier signal — Gowler's 32% rate suggests shrewd placement.
DANGER: Best perf in field (73), strong recent form (78→72→77→79), inside rail at 23.26%, and class drop from A4/open. Pure Closer is a concern but the rail offsets some ground loss and three Faders create the pace collapse scenario she thrives in.
High composite (62) is misleading — Fader with CS 3 and speed 31 will lead early then fade severely. Recent A5 form (58 for 5th) doesn't support the headline number. Will contest the early lead with two other Faders but won't be there at the finish.
Best of the three Faders — faster (speed 58) and fades less (CS 33 vs CS 3). Has shown an 84 performance win at A5 proving the ceiling is high. But inconsistent since and weak track suit (25). Could hold on at his best but more likely fades to a place.
Sits in DOMINANT T2 (31.08%) but trap suit of only 17 means she hasn't personally succeeded here. Pure Closer can't exploit the inside draw advantage that makes T2 dominant. Erratic form and weak suitability make her a poor match for the position.
Third of three Faders — will show early but CS 17 from widest draw means severe fade. Wins came at A6 level (class suit 0 confirms step up). Prominent early but unlikely to sustain through four bends at A5.
LOW SEPARATION: R1 24.91% vs R3 25.45% — the model cannot reliably separate these dogs. Three Faders in the same race creates an unusual tactical dynamic. T4 at 23.58% from 106 runs is a solid structural position for the pick.
T1:23.26% T2:31.08% T3:17.65% T4:23.58% T5:21.31% T6:22.39%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 388m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Savana Ribena | 0 | 100 | Closer |
2Droopys Halley | 0 | 100 | Closer |
3Canya Tick | 100 | 0 | Fader |
4Keady Wine | 0 | 92 | Closer |
5Malbay Thor | 100 | 8 | Fader |
6Melbury Loki | 100 | 2 | Fader |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.