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Winning Night Out @ Sunderland Dogs Stakes
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Strike It Freyab 1y 18 | P Miller — 20% R610 W124 P337 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 49 | 79 (1) | 55 (4) | 55 (4) | 62 (3) | 50 (4) | 65 (2) | 64 (1) | - | - | - | 18 | 7 | - | 21 | 62 | 38 | 3 | 7/4 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Please Nancyb 2y 38 | M K Bulmer — 20% R275 W55 P152 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 56 | 85 (1) | 69 (4) | 82 (1) | 61 (4) | 92 (1) | 52 (4) | 56 (4) | 90 (1) | 72 (2) | 61 (5) | 23 | 35 | 20 | 24 | 70 | 42 | 2 | 6/4F | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Cape Sunsetd 3yN/R 36 | C Mcnicholas — 14% R536 W77 P260 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 32 | 41 | 39 (5) | 53 (5) | 72 (2) | 82 (1) | 77 (1) | 51 (4) | 59 (4) | 61 (4) | 45 (6) | 56 (3) | 31 | 33 | 44 | 31 | 59 | 23 | - | - | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Kerabellec Delphb 2y 8 | P Miller — 20% R610 W124 P337 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 64 | 50 | 79 (1) | 65 (2) | 58 (5) | 60 (3) | 50 (3) | 64 (5) | 59 (2) | 74 (3) | 58 (1) | - | 26 | 24 | - | 40 | 64 | 51 | 1 | 9/4 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Coolaboola Lassb 3y 9 | D Blackbird — 16% R1106 W178 P611 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 55 | 80 (1) | 59 (4) | 36 (6) | 64 (3) | 18 (3) | 58 (3) | 76 (1) | 73 (1) | 48 (5) | 73 (1) | 33 | 22 | - | 39 | 58 | 46 | 4 | 7/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strike It Freya | 27.81 | 28.05 | 27.62 | 50 | -0.19 | Up in class after A4 win | |
| 2 | Please Nancy | 27.83 | 27.84 | 27.84 | 54 | +0.01 | Dropping from A2 | |
| 3 | Cape Sunset | 27.85 | 28.23 | 28.61 | 32 | +0.76 | Well below best | |
| 4 | Kerabellec Delph | 27.36 | 28.01 | 27.36 | 64 | 0.00 | Model pick | |
| 5 | Coolaboola Lass | 27.61 | 28.13 | 27.51 | 55 | -0.10 | Fader, won last time |
Sunderland over 450 metres remains one of the toughest circuits in the country to read consistently, but this A3 contest at least has a genuine standout on the figures. The grade-specific trap data here is notably flat - trap 5 edges it at 19.5% with trap 2 the weakest at 15.4% - so the draw isn't doing much of the heavy lifting this time; it comes down to raw pace and current form. One dog combines the best recent times and the best top-line rating in the field, while the danger drops in from a tougher grade with a huge performance a few starts back and looks capable of running to a different level if she gets the run of the race from off the pace.
The quickest dog in the field on recent times and the best-rated on the blended figure too, backing that up with a big win last time out that matched her career-best performance. Trainer D Blackbird is doing well at this track, right on a three-in-ten strike rate, and the form has been climbing steadily over her last few starts. Trap 4 is a reasonable if unspectacular draw in this grade, but the pace and rating combination is the strongest in the race.
Drops back down after running at A2, a tougher grade than this, and her overall figures back up the case - the highest average rating in this field, with a huge performance a few starts back that dwarfs anything else in the race. She's a pure closer with very little early pace, so she needs a genuine gallop up front to be doing her best work in the closing stages, but the class edge from racing tougher opposition recently is real and shouldn't be discounted just because her early speed looks poor on paper.
Steps up after leading throughout to win at A4 last time out, backing up a run of solid mid-fifties performances before that. Trainer S Linley wins right around one in five at this track, a reasonable if unspectacular signal. The step up to A3 is a fair test of whether that improvement is real, and trap 1 hasn't been among the better boxes in this specific grade lately.
Well below the rest of this field on recent times and finished down the field last time out, five and a half lengths off the winner. Nothing in the recent figures suggests she's ready to trouble this grade, and she's the slowest in the field by a clear margin on the clock.
Won impressively last time out with a career-best performance, showing sharp early pace that tends to fade in the closing stages. Drawn in the best-performing trap in this specific grade, which gives her every chance of getting the run of the race up front, but her tendency to weaken late means she needs to have enough in hand before the closers arrive.
Key insight: A flat trap picture at this grade with trap 5 marginally best (19.5%) - the composite top pick here (20.7%) is below the national average, reinforcing that Sunderland needs genuine analysis rather than a rubber stamp on the model.
T1:17.2% T2:15.4% T3:16.1% T4:18.2% T5:19.5% T6:15.6%
1,976 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 450m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Strike It Freya | 51 | 50 | All-Rounder |
2Please Nancy | 3 | 100 | Closer |
3Cape Sunset | 47 | 50 | All-Rounder |
4Kerabellec Delph | 50 | 54 | All-Rounder |
5Coolaboola Lass | 62 | 10 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 450m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (450m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 435m | 450m | 480m | 525m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strike It Freya | — | 0.623 | — | 0.563 |
| 2 | Please Nancy | 0.605 | 0.617 | — | — |
| 4 | Kerabellec Delph | — | 0.622 | — | — |
| 5 | Coolaboola Lass | — | 0.625 | 0.624 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.