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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Amka Wolfb 2y 6 | D Jeans — 13% R245 W31 P111 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | - | 37 (1) | 30 (2) | 24 (4) | 30 (3) | 30 (3) | 29 (3) | 31 (3) | 34 (3) | 30 (3) | 37 (1) | 49 | 26 | - | 26 | 39 | 37 | 4 | 6/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Swift Flourishb 3y 8 | N J Deas — 17% R450 W76 P247 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | - | 41 (1) | 36 (3) | 34 (4) | 32 (4) | 32 (5) | 46 (1) | 47 (1) | 38 (3) | 34 (3) | 41 (1) | 75 | 58 | 45 | 58 | 35 | 45 | 3 | 6/4F | |
| 3 | ▶ Trapstyle Grumpyd 2y 24 | J M Liles — 19% R427 W79 P224 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 43 | 55 | 39 (4) | 38 (4) | 42 (2) | 58 (1) | 42 (1) | 37 (1) | 47 (3) | 28 (4) | 34 (2) | 23 (6) | 40 | 39 | 23 | 45 | 32 | 35 | 2 | 4/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Kiskeam Lucyb 2y 4 | D D Porter — 17% R527 W90 P288 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 45 | 26 (5) | 36 (3) | 36 (2) | 30 (4) | 28 (5) | 41 (1) | 53 (5) | 66 (2) | 62 (2) | 45 (5) | 53 | 71 | - | 40 | 56 | 56 | 1 | 5/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Disembarkd 2y 27 | J A Knape — 23% R39 W9 P16 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | - | 47 (6) | 33 (6) | 61 (1) | 61 (1) | 37 (1) | 20 (6) | 32 (4) | 37 (1) | 29 (4) | 34 (3) | 33 | 33 | - | 33 | 31 | 32 | 5 | 10/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Dupalight Boyd 3y 15 | D D Porter — 17% R527 W90 P288 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | - | 37 (5) | 34 (2) | 34 (3) | 32 (3) | 38 (4) | 38 (3) | 38 (3) | 35 (3) | 37 (3) | - | 36 | 16 | 38 | 16 | 35 | 31 | 6 | 11/4 | |
A massive class override pick. Her avgP of 56 towers over this field — the next best is Amka Wolf at 39, making the gap 17 points. The field average is approximately 36, putting Kiskeam Lucy 20 points above — more than three times the 6-point threshold for a class override. The reason is clear from her racing history: she raced at Swindon A4 level (grade mult 105) for most of her career, posting 2nd places against A4 company (28.80s, 28.89s at 476m). She's now at Towcester in trials/D-grade sprints — a completely different level. Her recent Towcester form confirms the class advantage: 1st in T3 270m (16.05s), 2nd in T3 270m (16.21s), 1st in T4 500m (29.76s). She wins and places at will against this calibre. Her track suitability of 71 is far and away the best in the field, showing the system recognises her venue competence. Speed rating of 53 is the best in the field. Her Closer label (CS 100, EP 44) would normally be a concern at sprints, but the class override principle says raw ability overwhelms pace profile when the gap is this large. She's 20 points above average — even starting mid-pack, she'll be too fast for these to hold off. Trainer Porter at 10% is poor, but trainer signals are irrelevant when class does the talking.
DANGER: Best trap (26.04%), best EP (56), best bend (55), proven D2 winner. At sprint distance, these structural factors can overcome the class gap. The main threat to Kiskeam Lucy and the value alternative if you want to oppose the class dropper.
Solid D2 runner who consistently places but doesn't win — three 3rds from five recent D2 runs. The class gap to Kiskeam Lucy makes a win very unlikely, and he lacks the early pace to beat Trapstyle Grumpy for the lead.
Excellent suitability scores and proven D2 270m form, but avgP of 35 means she's outclassed by Kiskeam Lucy's 56. Could pick up a place if the class dropper has trouble, but the gap is too wide for a win pick.
Knape 32% is a strong signal but T5's 13.31% dead draw and avgP of 31 in a field with a 56 make this an uphill battle. The trainer may be targeting a place rather than a win.
D1 class drop and fastest raw time (16.00s) give him a place chance, but seven consecutive 3rd places at D1 suggest he can't convert to wins even with a class advantage. Not a serious threat to the pick.
T3 dominates at 26.04% from 384 runs — 5 percentage points clear of T1 at 21.82%. T5 is the dead trap at just 13.31% from 263 runs. Speed R1 wins 24.60% from 935 runs. Large dataset (1994 runs) gives high confidence in these patterns.
T3:26.04% T1:21.82% T2:21.15% T4:19.28% T6:16.50% T5:13.31%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 270m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.