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Suffolk Downs Maiden Sprint
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Westfield Tigrisb 3y 44 | J L Smith — 26% R81 W21 P45 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 36 | 75 | 35 (5) | 47 (4) | 44 (4) | 43 (5) | 65 (3) | 69 (2) | 67 (3) | 64 (1) | 47 (3) | 47 (2) | 57 | 30 | - | 37 | 49 | 47 | 4 | 10/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Browns Swiftiesb 2y 16 | M P Brown — 21% R425 W89 P244 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 0 | 83 | 26 (4) | 25 (6) | 39 (1) | 28 (4) | 33 (1) | 27 (3) | 13 (5) | 64 (4) | 77 (2) | 63 (2) | 37 | 51 | 18 | - | 67 | 56 | 1 | 3/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Moaning Sugarayd 2y 36 | D B Whitton — 26% R310 W81 P196 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 57 | 50 | 41 (6) | 100 (5) | 86 (1) | 72 (3) | 54 (1) | 29 (3) | 53 (2) | 65 (2) | 27 (1) | - | 41 | - | 10 | - | 55 | 49 | 3 | 1/1F | |
| 4 | ▶ Alfies Jetd 2y 24 | J L Smith — 26% R81 W21 P45 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 0 | 35 (5) | 65 (1) | 45 (3) | 38 (6) | 50 (5) | 61 (4) | 55 (5) | 59 (5) | 36 (1) | 70 (3) | 40 | 15 | - | 25 | 51 | 41 | 5 | 10/3 | |
| 6 | ▶ Westfield Rosieb 2y 35 | J L Smith — 26% R81 W21 P45 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 57 | 22 | 26 (5) | 48 (6) | 84 (2) | 42 (1) | 67 (4) | 39 (1) | 85 (2) | 46 (5) | 42 (4) | 58 (4) | 49 | 35 | 17 | 60 | 52 | 50 | 2 | 7/1 | |
The best sprint profile in the field by a clear margin: EP 82 (best), bend 83 (best), and the gap between her and the second-best on both metrics is substantial (8 points on EP, 8 on bend). At 220m where these two factors decide everything, that's dominance. P=67 is the second-highest. Her form is at higher grades: OR 2nd at 388m, A3 2nd at 388m, A4 1st at 388m — she's been competing at OR level and winning at A3/A4. The step to OR 220m is a distance change rather than a class jump. Trainer Brown at 24% is average. Speed shows as 0 (insufficient 220m data for a speed rating) which is a gap in the data rather than a reflection of ability — her EP 82 proves she's fast. Suitability (trk 51, dist 0, trap 37) has zero distance suit because she hasn't run 220m competitively before, but the one T3 270m start was her only sprint attempt. The Fader label (CS 43) is irrelevant at 220m — the race is over before any fade. From T2 with EP 82 and bend 83, she'll be at or near the front through the first bend and the tight geometry of Suffolk Downs means she holds position. The combination of clearly the best EP and bend in a sprint where those are the only factors that matter is the structural play.
DANGER: Front Runner profile + EP 74 + bend 75 + T1 rail. The pace profile is textbook for a sprint. But speed 36 and A7/A8 form raise serious class concerns at OR level. If the Front Runner profile overrides the raw speed deficit, he's live from the rail.
The T3 trap (39.13%) is extraordinary but she's never run at Suffolk Downs or 220m. The trap geometry may carry her, but EP 50 is well below the pace dogs and the A6/A7 415m form doesn't translate to an OR sprint. A bet on the trap, not the dog.
Triple structural mismatch: Closer at 220m + bend 0 + T4 dead trap (7.41%). Can be confidently opposed despite the Smith 34% connection.
Sprint form exists (OR 2nd, D2 1st) and the best distance suit (60), but Closer with EP 0 at 220m is a structural mismatch. She'll close in the final stages but may not have enough distance to catch the pace dogs.
T3 wins 39.13% from 126 runs — the dominant trap by a huge margin. T4 is the dead trap at 7.41%. SR1 wins 29.17%. With no T5 runner, the T3 bias is the headline factor. But the T3 runner (Moaning Sugaray) has zero track/distance suitability.
T3:39.13% T4:7.41%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 220m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.