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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Blue Spartab 3y 16 | S J Rayner — 18% R179 W33 P103 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 43 | 27 (6) | 41 (5) | 38 (5) | 40 (5) | 50 (2) | 35 (5) | 39 (5) | 56 (2) | 61 (1) | 23 (5) | 30 | 37 | - | 41 | 34 | 35 | 5 | 5/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Sovereign Poppyb 3y 19 | J A Knape — 22% R37 W8 P14 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 56 | 68 (1) | 49 (5) | 43 (5) | 68 (1) | 59 (2) | 52 (4) | 61 (1) | 40 (5) | 36 (5) | 36 (4) | 38 | 31 | 20 | 29 | 47 | 42 | 1 | 5/2 | |
| 3 | ▶ Salacres Mayb 4y 14 | P H Harnden — 18% R396 W71 P224 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 49 | 35 (4) | 42 (4) | 51 (3) | 52 (4) | 40 (5) | 50 (3) | 56 (3) | 40 (5) | 54 (3) | 60 (1) | 44 | 24 | 25 | 24 | 49 | 43 | 4 | 9/2 | |
| 4 | ▶ Amka Bruced 2y 26 | D Jeans — 12% R242 W30 P109 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | 48 | 31 (6) | 43 (3) | 33 (5) | 60 (1) | 43 (3) | 46 (3) | 38 (4) | 47 (4) | 35 (6) | 59 (1) | 41 | 26 | - | 26 | 52 | 45 | 2 | 5/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Trapstyle Sleepyb 2y 25 | J M Liles — 19% R423 W79 P222 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | 45 | 33 (3) | 58 (1) | 32 (6) | 45 (4) | 31 (6) | 36 (1) | 35 (1) | 29 (3) | 49 (3) | 61 (1) | 29 | 29 | - | 17 | 37 | 33 | 6 | 6/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Salacres Paigeb 4y 26 | P H Harnden — 18% R396 W71 P224 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 63 | 59 | 48 (3) | 41 (3) | 41 (5) | 20 (6) | 33 (5) | 37 (4) | 49 (3) | 43 (4) | 48 (3) | 45 (5) | 31 | 32 | 23 | 26 | 50 | 43 | 3 | 2/1F | |
The Knape factor is the headline here — trainer J A Knape at 32% is comfortably the strongest trainer signal in this field, and strong-tier trainers (30%+) historically produce elevated win rates when they're the top trainer in a field. Knape has placed her here after a 1st in A7 (March 13, P=62) and a 4th in A6 (March 19, P=52) — the A7 win shows recent form, and the A6 4th shows she's competitive at this grade. Her All-Rounder profile (EP 51, CS 45) is the ideal pace type for Towcester 500m — she'll sit in a handy position through the first bend without needing to lead, then sustain her pace while the Faders weaken. Best bend rating in the field at 56, which is crucial at Towcester where the bends decide positions. Her suitability scores are moderate (trap 38, track 31, distance 29, class 20) but not a concern given the trainer edge. Recent winning form includes three A7 wins (March 13, Jan 29, Jan 13) — she's been dominating a grade below and the 4th in A6 last time was her first run back at this level. Performance trajectory shows flashes of quality: 67→47→59→30→40→37→36→40→62→52 (newest to oldest) — the 62 A7 win and 52 A6 run suggest she's in form now. The pace consistency of 61 is the lowest among contenders but the Knape edge compensates.
DANGER: Best avgP (52), best trap (T4 23.81%), best EP (53), and A3 Oxford form dropping to A6. The structural case is excellent but 5th and 6th in his two A6 Towcester runs is concerning. The trap will keep him in the race but the venue transition may limit him again.
T1 draw and best raw speed (55) are interesting but avgP of 34 is worst in the field and 500m form is essentially one run. The A7 win may be an outlier — too risky to pick with confidence against dogs with consistent A6 experience.
Closer who's just won A7 but has a 4th-5th-6th-6th record at A6. The grade bounce pattern (struggle at A6, win at A7, get promoted back to A6) suggests she'll repeat the cycle. T3's 16.96% trap rate adds a structural hurdle.
Sprint specialist (270m D3) struggling at 500m A6 — 6th and poor 3rd from his two most recent A6 runs. Worst trap (16.43%), lowest speed and bend ratings. Hard to see a path to victory at this grade and distance.
Best speed in the field (63) but form collapse (5th, 4th, 6th, 6th in last four) and Fader CS 21 at 500m make her the classic pace-setter who leads then fades. Dropping from A4/A5 to A6 helps, but the trajectory suggests she won't hold. The speed will put her in the race early but she'll weaken when it matters.
T4 dominates at 23.81% from 210 runs — 2.5% clear of T1 at 21.39%. T5 and T3 are the weakest traps. Speed R1 wins 26.64% from 428 runs. Large sample (1189 runs) gives high confidence. T4 advantage at A6 is stronger than the general Towcester 500m T1 bias.
T4:23.81% T1:21.39% T6:20.23% T2:19.39% T3:16.96% T5:16.43%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Blue Sparta | 47 | 88 | Closer |
2Sovereign Poppy | 51 | 45 | All-Rounder |
3Salacres May | 38 | 100 | Closer |
4Amka Bruce | 53 | 42 | All-Rounder |
5Trapstyle Sleepy | 49 | 55 | Closer |
6Salacres Paige | 64 | 21 | Fader |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.