| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Polar Expressb 2y 26 | W M Lyons — 18% R942 W168 P493 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 44 | 76 (1) | 76 (1) | 75 (1) | 29 (3) | 36 (1) | 31 (6) | 39 (6) | 70 (1) | 65 (3) | 44 (5) | 20 | 33 | 10 | 48 | 63 | 40 | 3 | 5/2F | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Deecee Smileb 2y 26 | W M Lyons — 18% R942 W168 P493 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 52 | 56 (4) | 60 (4) | 76 (1) | 55 (3) | 27 (5) | 34 (2) | 35 (2) | 38 (1) | 31 (3) | 32 (2) | 19 | 29 | 5 | 33 | 61 | 36 | 4 | 4/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Swift Oftend 2y 27 | J Robinson — 19% R288 W54 P160 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 43 | 65 (3) | 50 (5) | 38 (6) | 76 (1) | 57 (3) | 61 (4) | 63 (3) | 56 (3) | 61 (2) | - | 35 | 26 | 4 | 24 | 58 | 39 | 6 | 7/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Hazelgrove Pixieb 3y 2 | W M Lyons — 18% R942 W168 P493 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 57 | 46 | 61 (4) | 62 (2) | 78 (1) | 59 (3) | 52 (3) | 67 (2) | 71 (2) | 58 (3) | 63 (2) | 24 (5) | 38 | 34 | 37 | 37 | 64 | 51 | 2 | 10/3 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Private Kevind 4y 37 | K J O'hara — 0% R8 W0 P5 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 57 | 64 (3) | 60 (3) | 48 (6) | 64 (2) | 68 (3) | 27 (5) | 36 (2) | 83 (1) | 79 (1) | 60 (3) | 29 | 33 | 26 | 25 | 64 | 41 | 1 | 3/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Bellmore Ozzyd 4y 36 | I Zivkovic — 13% R588 W79 P277 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 54 | 51 (5) | 34 (2) | 35 (3) | 24 (6) | 46 (6) | 65 (2) | 67 (2) | 40 (3) | 40 (3) | 36 (4) | 44 | 25 | - | 18 | 56 | 41 | 5 | 9/2 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Hazelgrove Pixie | 28.23 | 28.61 | 28.61 | 57 | +0.38 | Model pick | |
| 1 | Polar Express | 28.42 | 28.81 | 28.42 | 53 | 0.00 | ||
| 3 | Swift Often | 28.47 | 28.83 | 28.82 | 46 | +0.35 | Best trap for the grade | |
| 5 | Private Kevin | 28.47 | 28.69 | 28.59 | 52 | +0.12 | ||
| 2 | Deecee Smile | 28.45 | 28.73 | 28.90 | 47 | +0.45 | ||
| 6 | Bellmore Ozzy | 28.50 | 28.67 | 28.96 | 47 | +0.46 |
Kinsley's 462-metre trip gives the field time to sort itself out over four bends rather than deciding everything in the first strides. Several of these show early pace, so the opening two hundred yards should be competitive, with Hazelgrove Pixie and Polar Express both likely to be up with the pace from their boxes. The white jacket has been the most productive draw at this grade, so Swift Often gets a structural boost if she can land a spot on the rail into the first bend. Whoever leads with authority into the back straight has a real chance of holding on all the way home.
Tops the ratings here, though the underlying case has some question marks. His trainer has managed just one win from six starts in these exact conditions, a small sample but not an encouraging one, and the orange jacket is below the field average for this grade. He's not the fastest dog in the race either, sitting mid-pack on the clock. Recent form has been steady without winning — three placed efforts in his last six. Top of the ratings but the data underneath raises questions — neither the trainer record nor the draw give much extra confidence.
The fastest dog in this field by a clear margin on both best time and average, and she's been competitive without quite winning lately — three placed runs from her last six starts. Shows early pace but has also been a slow starter on occasion, a slightly mixed pace picture. Her trainer's 16% strike rate at this grade is solid, and the black jacket is a workable draw sitting above the field average. The most dangerous runner in this race on the data — the clock says she's clearly the quickest of the six.
In excellent recent form, winning three of her last six starts, though she does step up in grade here after winning last time at a lower level. The red jacket is a real concern — statistically the weakest draw at this grade and trip, winning barely one in nine — which is an awkward fit for a dog who shows early pace and wants a clean run into the first bend. Her trainer's 16% strike rate in these conditions is respectable. The class rise combined with the poor draw makes her hard to fully trust, even with the recent wins.
Modest recent form, with just one placed effort from her last six starts and a fifth two runs back. Her trainer's 16% record at this grade and trip is reasonable, and the blue jacket sits in the middle of the trap rankings without offering a real edge. Not the quickest in the field on the clock, and her last-time run was comfortably her slowest in recent memory. Hard to build a strong case.
Has been a slow starter in recent races, which is a genuine handicap on a track where early position matters. She does have one big positive: the white jacket, which is the strongest draw at this grade and trip by a clear margin. Her trainer's 20% strike rate here is the best in the race. The slowest dog in the field on the clock is a real drag on her chance, but the trap and trainer combination keep her in the reckoning if she can break alertly for once.
Mixed recent form, racing between grades with two sixth-placed runs in his last six starts alongside two seconds. His trainer's 14% record here is unremarkable, and the black jacket is a fair rather than outstanding draw. His last-time run was the slowest recorded in this field relative to his own best, suggesting he's not currently at peak sharpness. Needs more than the raw ability suggests to figure prominently.
Key insight: The red jacket is a notably poor draw at this grade and trip, winning barely one in nine historically.
White jacket (trap three) strongest at 20%, red jacket (trap one) weakest at 12%
1,859 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 462m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Polar Express | 43 | 58 | Closer |
2Deecee Smile | 53 | 46 | All-Rounder |
3Swift Often | 43 | 60 | Closer |
4Hazelgrove Pixie | 50 | 54 | All-Rounder |
5Private Kevin | 50 | 44 | All-Rounder |
6Bellmore Ozzy | 55 | 41 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 462m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (462m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 268m | 462m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polar Express | 0.628 | 0.629 |
| 2 | Deecee Smile | 0.622 | 0.622 |
| 3 | Swift Often | — | 0.624 |
| 4 | Hazelgrove Pixie | 0.630 | 0.621 |
| 5 | Private Kevin | 0.621 | 0.620 |
| 6 | Bellmore Ozzy | 0.619 | 0.621 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.