The This Runs Deep A3 525
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Doubtful Miamib 2y 24 | - | - | 51 | - | 87 (1) | 78 (2) | 82 (3) | 75 (1) | 54 (4) | 42 (6) | 47 (4) | - | - | - | 21 | 31 | 16 | 32 | 71 | 46 | 3 | 7/4F | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Gerpats Jackpotd 2y 4 | Matthew Ryan — 13% R16 W2 P9 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 58 | - | 71 (2) | 63 (4) | 81 (1) | 63 (2) | 52 (5) | 50 (5) | 62 (4) | 56 (5) | 40 (6) | 83 (1) | 27 | 29 | 34 | 34 | 64 | 53 | 2 | 11/4 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Breakaway Snooksd 2y 16 | - | - | 55 | - | 83 (1) | 69 (2) | 61 (5) | 70 (3) | 69 (3) | 69 (3) | 51 (5) | 37 (6) | 80 (1) | 70 (2) | 24 | 22 | - | 34 | 68 | 52 | 1 | 10/3 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Foxrock Mintab 1y 23 | - | - | 3 | - | 37 (5) | 42 (6) | 37 (5) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 39 | 14 | 6 | 5/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Chaotic Matildab 2y 25 | Ms. Dora Hattemore — 17% R41 W7 P21 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 40 | - | 61 (4) | 79 (1) | 48 (5) | 49 (4) | 41 (6) | 48 (4) | 45 (6) | 45 (5) | 44 (6) | 50 (5) | - | 9 | - | 12 | 54 | 31 | 5 | 8/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Chamberlain Starb 3y 14 | - | - | 50 | - | 65 (3) | 84 (1) | 70 (3) | 39 (6) | 65 (5) | 83 (2) | 73 (3) | 75 (1) | 56 (5) | 62 (3) | 24 | 25 | 10 | 23 | 68 | 46 | 4 | 7/2 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Doubtful Miami | 29.27 | 29.69 | 29.27 | 51 | 0.00 | Won LTO, drew clear | |
| 2 | Gerpats Jackpot | 29.03 | 29.56 | 29.21 | 58 | +0.18 | Model pick | |
| 3 | Breakaway Snooks | 29.22 | 29.55 | 29.27 | 55 | +0.05 | Rising through grades | |
| 4 | Foxrock Minta | 30.40 | 30.48 | 30.55 | 3 | +0.15 | Big grade rise | |
| 5 | Chaotic Matilda | 29.29 | 29.90 | 29.73 | 40 | +0.44 | Inconsistent | |
| 6 | Chamberlain Star | 29.14 | 29.56 | 29.63 | 50 | +0.49 | Weaker trap |
Clonmel's 525m trip is fairer on the draw at this A3 level than the lower grades — trap 4 actually edges it as the best box here at 15.7% from 1,039 runs, with trap 1 surprisingly the weakest at just 10.5%. The composite model's top-rated dog wins a healthy 19.2% at this level, one of the more reliable signals on the card tonight. Doubtful Miami arrives full of running after drawing clear to win her last start, but she's up against it from the poorest draw. Gerpats Jackpot and Breakaway Snooks are locked together on the ratings and both have claims to lead the way home, while Foxrock Minta looks desperately out of her depth stepping up sharply in grade.
Rates as the model's top pick tonight and has been knocking on the door, finishing second last time out and second the time before that at this exact grade, with a runaway win in between at A5. She's the second-fastest recorded time in the field and drawn in trap 2, the second-most productive box at this course and distance at 15.0% from 1,039 runs. It's an open-looking race but she ticks the most boxes across the board: model rating, trap, and sustained recent form.
Rising nicely through the grades — she won last time out at A4 by two and a half lengths and was second the start before that, and tonight represents a step back up rather than down, suggesting the yard rate her highly. Several of the site's secondary rating models single her out as the one to beat. Trap 3 is a moderate draw at this level, winning 13.3% from 1,039 runs — not a positive, but not prohibitive either given how well she's racing right now.
Won impressively last time out, leading throughout and drawing clear for a dominant success, and the run before that saw her go down by just half a length. Her overall average is boosted by strong sprint form at other distances, but her actual course-and-distance form — a win and a close second in her last two starts here — is the best in the race on paper. The obstacle is the draw: trap 1 has been the weakest box at this level, winning only 10.5% from 1,039 runs — she'll need to overcome that to follow up.
A big step up in company tonight from the N3, A6 and A7 grades she's been contesting, and nothing in those three runs suggests she's anywhere near competitive at A3 level — comfortably the slowest recorded time in this entire field. This looks a serious mismatch on the data and she should be watched with real caution rather than backed.
Capable of a big performance on her day — she won readily at A5 two starts back — but her other recent runs have been modest and she was only fourth last time out at this grade. Trainer Dora Hattemore has a fair strike rate at around one in five. Trap 5 is a moderate draw here at 13.4%, and she looks more of an each-way sort than a confident selection tonight.
Won well at A4 two starts back, leading inside the final furlong, and has been racing consistently around this level since, albeit without adding to the win tally. Her figures of 65, 84, 70, 39, 65 and 83 across her last six starts show she's capable of matching this company on her day. Trap 6 has been a modest draw at this level at 11.6%, which slightly dents her claims of adding to that solitary recent win.
Key insight: The top-rated dog on the model wins 19.2% at this level — a solid signal — but tonight's top two rated dogs, Gerpats Jackpot and Breakaway Snooks, are separated by just a single point on the composite score, making this one of the tightest calls on the card.
T1:10.5% T2:15.0% T3:13.3% T4:15.7% T5:13.4% T6:11.6%
1,039 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 525m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 525m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (525m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 300m | 325m | 525m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Doubtful Miami | 0.545 | 0.558 | 0.566 |
| 2 | Gerpats Jackpot | — | — | 0.563 |
| 3 | Breakaway Snooks | — | — | 0.563 |
| 4 | Foxrock Minta | — | — | 0.579 |
| 5 | Chaotic Matilda | 0.566 | — | 0.570 |
| 6 | Chamberlain Star | — | — | 0.563 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.