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The Home Of The Produce Stakes A3 525
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Chamberlain Rubyb 4y 43 | - | - | 49 | - | 67 (5) | 80 (2) | 81 (1) | 51 (6) | 66 (3) | 63 (4) | 76 (3) | 55 (5) | 62 (4) | 84 (1) | 53 | 36 | - | 28 | 69 | 38 | 3 | 2/1F | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Happy Days Sydd 5y 25 | - | - | 46 | - | 59 (5) | 77 (2) | 73 (4) | 81 (1) | 67 (3) | 62 (2) | 58 (4) | 78 (1) | 67 (3) | 44 (6) | 32 | 36 | - | 30 | 68 | 49 | 5 | 11/2 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Jimmys Swiftd 3y 25 | - | - | 42 | - | 47 (5) | 60 (5) | 76 (2) | 87 (1) | 84 (1) | 59 (4) | 66 (3) | 82 (1) | 70 (2) | 77 (2) | 34 | 30 | 23 | 40 | 68 | 44 | 6 | 9/4 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Samrose Crashd 2y 15 | - | - | 59 | - | 73 (3) | 84 (1) | 84 (1) | 51 (6) | 59 (6) | 77 (2) | 77 (2) | 64 (4) | 67 (2) | 68 (2) | - | 31 | 24 | 41 | 72 | 57 | 2 | 7/2 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Pats Favourited 4y 15 | Maurice Organ — 13% R16 W2 P9 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | - | 77 (2) | 47 (6) | 71 (2) | 54 (5) | 59 (4) | 53 (6) | 60 (5) | 53 (5) | 72 (6) | - | 23 | 26 | 8 | 18 | 61 | 48 | 4 | 15/2 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Slaneyside Slided 1y 16 | Derek Kehoe — 23% R120 W27 P69 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | - | 76 (2) | 69 (3) | 76 (2) | 86 (1) | 65 (3) | 54 (5) | 72 (2) | 57 (5) | 69 (3) | 58 (2) | 20 | 33 | 37 | 36 | 71 | 54 | 1 | 10/3 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chamberlain Ruby | 29.02 | 29.46 | 29.54 | 49 | +0.52 | Worst trap | |
| 2 | Happy Days Syd | 29.09 | 29.49 | 29.65 | 46 | +0.56 | Consistent | |
| 3 | Purple Fire | 29.08 | 29.80 | 29.75 | 38 | +0.67 | Weakest rated | |
| 4 | Samrose Crash | 29.06 | 29.22 | 29.16 | 59 | +0.10 | Model pick, best trap | |
| 5 | Pats Favourite | 29.08 | 29.44 | 29.34 | 52 | +0.26 | Strong LTO | |
| 6 | Slaneyside Slide | 29.09 | 29.43 | 29.09 | 55 | 0.00 | Consistent 2nd on model |
Same A3 numbers as earlier tonight — trap 4 is the standout box at 15.7% from 1,039 runs, with trap 1 the weakest at just 10.5%. The composite model is a reasonably strong guide at this level, winning 19.2% of races for the top-rated dog, and tonight it lines up perfectly with the draw: Samrose Crash tops the model rating, carries the fastest recorded time in the field, and sits in the best trap on offer. Slaneyside Slide is the most consistent alternative, while Chamberlain Ruby has the form to trouble them both if she can overcome the least favoured box.
Ticks every box tonight — she tops the model's composite score, carries the fastest recorded time in the field, and she's drawn in trap 4, the best-performing box at this level at 15.7% from 1,039 runs. She was third last time out but has two recent figures of 84 in her locker showing the level she's capable of reaching. When the model, the clock and the draw all point the same way, that's about as strong a case as this card produces.
The most consistent alternative to the selection — her last six starts read 76, 69, 76, 86, 65 and 54, rating second on the model tonight, and she was runner-up last time out. Trainer Derek Kehoe has a fair strike rate at around one in five. Trap 6 is a below-average draw at this level, winning 11.6%, the one thing standing between her and a stronger claim.
Has shown some eye-catching form recently, with figures of 80 and 81 two and three starts back, though she was below that last time out in fifth. The problem is the draw — trap 1 has been the weakest box at this level, winning just 10.5% from 1,039 runs, which makes life hard even for a dog with her underlying ability.
Consistent without a recent win, finishing in the 60s and 70s throughout her last six starts and dropping down from A2 grade tonight. Trap 2 is the second-best draw at this level, winning 15.0% from 1,039 runs, which adds to a reasonably solid, if unspectacular, case.
Rates the weakest in the field on both the model score and average performance, and her recent starts have been well beaten with only one placed effort in her last five. There was a big peak of 81 four starts back, but nothing since has come close to matching it. Hard to make a case for her tonight.
Ran a big race last time out, chasing home the winner in second, though the rest of her recent form has been more modest. Trainer Maurice Organ's overall strike rate is on the low side. Trap 5 is a fair draw here at 13.4%, and she's capable of running well again but needs to repeat last time's effort rather than her wider recent average.
Key insight: Tonight's model top-pick, Samrose Crash, lines up perfectly with the best trap at this level (15.7%) and also carries the fastest recorded time in the field — a genuine three-way stack that's rare on this card.
T1:10.5% T2:15.0% T3:13.3% T4:15.7% T5:13.4% T6:11.6%
1,039 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 525m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 525m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (525m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 525m | 575m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chamberlain Ruby | 0.561 | — |
| 2 | Happy Days Syd | 0.562 | — |
| 3 | Jimmys Swift | 0.562 | — |
| 4 | Samrose Crash | 0.557 | 0.571 |
| 5 | Pats Favourite | 0.561 | — |
| 6 | Slaneyside Slide | 0.560 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.