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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Punkrock Perkeled 5y 14 | S Maplesden — 17% R276 W47 P152 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 18 (6) | 31 (1) | 32 (2) | 24 (5) | 22 (5) | 32 (2) | 26 (4) | 35 (1) | 29 (2) | 30 (3) | 64 | 45 | 32 | 49 | 28 | 37 | 3 | 10/3 | |
| 2 | ▶ Agincourt Mavkab 4y 14 | R H Tungatt — 16% R50 W8 P34 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 58 | - | 26 (3) | 35 (1) | 31 (1) | 20 (6) | 29 (3) | 35 (1) | 31 (2) | 35 (1) | 31 (1) | 27 (3) | 42 | 39 | 31 | 40 | 31 | 34 | 2 | 15/8 | |
| 3 | ▶ St Crispins Dayd 3y 6 | R H Tungatt — 16% R50 W8 P34 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 62 | - | 34 (2) | 30 (2) | 32 (2) | 24 (5) | 28 (3) | 32 (1) | 24 (3) | 15 (5) | 31 (2) | 28 (2) | 77 | 40 | 34 | 44 | 27 | 36 | 1 | 4/5F | |
| 5 | ▶ Cashout Roryd 3y 4 | M J Richards — 16% R166 W27 P87 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 43 | - | 24 (3) | 24 (4) | 22 (5) | 24 (3) | 29 (2) | 31 (1) | 14 (6) | 24 (3) | 31 (1) | 21 (5) | 51 | 34 | 35 | 34 | 24 | 29 | 5 | 25/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Portobello Quayd 2y 26 | D D Knight — 18% R236 W42 P135 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | - | 13 (6) | 17 (5) | 20 (5) | 30 (1) | 21 (4) | 30 (1) | 21 (5) | 21 (4) | 25 (4) | 19 (5) | 47 | 34 | - | 31 | 25 | 29 | 4 | 16/1 | |
St Crispins Day carries the highest speed rating in the field (62 points), a critical advantage at this 285m sprint distance where pure pace becomes the dominant performance factor. Trainer R H Tungatt's 20% strike rate is solid, and the dog's recent form at D3/D4 level shows one 1st place at D4, followed by inconsistent 3rd and 5th placings. The trap suitability (77) is the highest in the field, and track suitability (40) supports Hove experience. However, T3 lacks the dominant positional advantage of T1 (29.73%) or T6 (24.42%), and the dog's form line (32→24→15→31→28) shows volatility that reflects the composition inversion affecting this conditions set. The pick is based on speed rating and suitability alignment, but the inverted R3/R1 relationship and low field separation warrant tentative confidence only.
T1 positional advantage is structural and powerful at sprint distances. Trap suitability (64) confirms prior successful racing from this position. Speed (50) mid-field but trap advantage may offset St Crispins Day's speed superiority. Recent form stabilisation suggests dog finds racing rhythm from T1.
Stable-mate pairing with pick dog suggests neither has dominant trainer backing. T2 positional weakness (15.31%) constrains win probability. Speed (58) competitive for place finish. Form consistency (29→35→31→35→31) suggests reliable mid-level performance.
Structural disadvantage from trap 5 (10.26% win rate). Speed rating (43) and declining form (15 latest) create double weakness. No component of the profile suggests competitive potential at this level.
T6 positional advantage secondary to T1. Fader profile may generate tactical surprise. Volatile form (30→21→30→21→23) suggests unreliability. Composition inversion (R3 beats R1) may favour volatile racers, but dog's class consistency (0) indicates vulnerability at D3 compression.
Exceptional composition inversion: R3 beats R1 by 4.1pp. T1 trap advantage is pronounced at sprint distance. ML predictions show low separation and poor predictive accuracy at this conditions set. Speed rating becomes more critical than suitability.
T1:DOMINANT_29.73% T2:15.31% T3:14.71% T4:19.42% T5:DEAD_10.26% T6:24.42%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 285m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.