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Good Night & Safe Home To You All A2 525
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Barntick Boltd 2y 25 | - | - | 42 | - | 66 (5) | 47 (6) | 33 (6) | 85 (1) | 67 (4) | 54 (6) | 64 (3) | 70 (1) | 52 (2) | 52 (3) | 1 | 22 | - | 20 | 59 | 35 | 6 | - | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Tullymurry Harpb 1y 12 | Damian Maginn(NI) — 10% R20 W2 P10 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 59 | - | 79 (2) | 77 (3) | 76 (2) | 82 (3) | 91 (1) | 73 (2) | 54 (5) | 66 (3) | 68 (3) | 63 (1) | - | 35 | 37 | 34 | 76 | 58 | 1 | - | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Ellebellb 3y 32 | - | - | 47 | - | 73 (3) | 70 (2) | 63 (5) | 71 (2) | 63 (4) | 67 (4) | 48 (5) | 63 (4) | 62 (5) | 79 (2) | 29 | 21 | - | 13 | 67 | 37 | 5 | - | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Mandeville Patsd 1y 24 | - | - | 49 | - | 87 (1) | 56 (5) | 63 (5) | 66 (2) | 51 (5) | 51 (4) | 55 (2) | 67 (1) | - | - | - | - | - | 31 | 64 | 28 | 4 | - | - | |
| 5 | ▶ False Statementd 3y 24 | John McQuillan(NI) — 9% R23 W2 P10 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | - | 83 (2) | 58 (5) | 87 (1) | 85 (6) | 85 (1) | 85 (1) | 84 (1) | 62 (1) | 85 (5) | - | 22 | - | - | 56 | 79 | 44 | 2 | - | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Dominicod 3y 14 | Tina McGrane — 25% R4 W1 P2 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 66 (4) | 90 (1) | 68 (4) | 71 (4) | 83 (1) | 66 (2) | 65 (3) | 68 (3) | 65 (4) | 63 (4) | 30 | 33 | 14 | 33 | 72 | 52 | 3 | - | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tullymurry Harp | 28.91 | 29.14 | 28.96 | 59 | +0.05 | Model pick | |
| 5 | False Statement | 28.92 | 29.38 | 28.92 | 55 | 0.00 | First time here | |
| 4 | Mandeville Pats | 29.02 | 29.52 | 29.02 | 49 | 0.00 | First 525m here | |
| 3 | Ellebell | 29.04 | 29.61 | 29.04 | 47 | 0.00 | Mixing trips | |
| 6 | Dominico | 29.08 | 29.25 | 29.24 | 50 | +0.16 | Hot kennel | |
| 1 | Barntick Bolt | 29.20 | 29.59 | 29.20 | 42 | 0.00 | Down from A1 |
The class act of the evening — an A2 over the 525-metre trip with three genuine win candidates, and as with the rest of this card no historical Dundalk trap data to lean on. Tullymurry Harp sets the standard from trap 2: the fastest best time in the field, the top speed figure, and five consecutive top-three finishes at this grade including a big win in late May. Dominico won at the grade three weeks ago and represents the only red-hot kennel in the race, his trainer striking at a third of her recent runners. Then there is False Statement, the enigma — six wins in his last ten starts and the highest average rating here, but every one of them earned somewhere else: he has never set foot on this track. The Harp's proven early pace over this course and distance should have him in front where it matters.
Sets the standard on every clock in the book — the fastest best time in the field at 28.91, the quickest average, and the top speed figure. He has finished in the first three in five consecutive starts at this grade, winning one of them in late May with the single biggest performance figure in this field, and his seven course and distance runs have produced a win and four seconds. The honest knock is that he keeps finding one too quick — four of those five frame finishes were placings, not wins — but with the proven early pace on this circuit to lead from trap two and nothing here demonstrably faster, he is the percentage call in the best race on the card.
Won at this exact grade three weeks ago with a monster performance — the second-biggest figure in this field — and his ten course and distance runs include two wins, so he knows every blade of the track. The strongest angle is the kennel: trainer Tina McGrane is winning with a third of her recent runners, far and away the best strike rate in this race. Fourth at the grade last week keeps expectations honest, but on his June best he wins this, and hot kennels have a habit of getting these dogs back to their best quickly.
Dropped back from two runs against the track's elite A1 company, which excuses a fifth and a sixth on form grounds, and his win at A4 in May came with a huge figure. But the clock is the problem: his best time is the slowest in this field, and at this level that gap is very hard to bridge on class alone. Seven course and distance runs mean the track is no excuse either.
An interesting one — she has been mixing 400-metre sprints with staying trips and ran well at the track's top sprint grade last month. Her only course and distance start produced a second place and her best time over the trip is competitive with anything here bar the front two. The lack of a recent 525-metre run is the worry: she has the speed, but match-fitness at tonight's distance is unproven.
Won at A4 in June with one of the biggest figures in the field, but that is his only start in the past five weeks and he has never raced over Dundalk's 525 metres. The engine is clearly there — several of his recent performances would win an average A2 — yet the combination of a light campaign and a first try at this course and distance makes him a watch-first proposition at this level.
Six wins in his last ten starts, the highest average rating in the race and a best time just one hundredth off the selection's — the raw resume is the best on show. The catch is that every line of it was written somewhere else: he has never raced at this track, and even the classiest dogs can take a look around on a first visit to a new venue. His latest clocking is actually the fastest last-time figure in the field, so he arrives sharp. Impossible to dismiss, risky to rely on.
Key insight: Sample is the field's own combined course-and-distance runs (25) — no track-level historical database exists for Dundalk yet. Top-of-card contest — the pick is fastest on every clock measure with five straight frame finishes at the grade, against a track-debutant with better raw form and a grade winner from the hottest kennel.
No historical trap data for Dundalk yet
25 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 525m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 525m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (525m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 335m | 350m | 400m | 525m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barntick Bolt | — | 0.560 | — | 0.562 |
| 2 | Tullymurry Harp | — | — | 0.548 | 0.555 |
| 3 | Ellebell | 0.554 | — | 0.544 | 0.564 |
| 4 | Mandeville Pats | — | — | — | 0.563 |
| 5 | False Statement | — | — | — | 0.560 |
| 6 | Dominico | — | — | — | 0.557 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.