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The Welcome To Youghal 525
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Only Janeb 4y 34 | - | - | 54 | - | 69 (5) | 68 (2) | 62 (2) | 51 (3) | 58 (5) | 62 (3) | 77 (3) | 50 (5) | 68 (5) | 43 (4) | 4 | 20 | 16 | 19 | 62 | 45 | 5 | 13/8JF | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Whitty Islandd 4y 23 | - | - | - | - | 41 (5) | 69 (1) | 55 (3) | 46 (5) | 48 (3) | 39 (5) | 52 (4) | 49 (4) | 44 (3) | 40 (5) | 26 | 24 | - | 16 | 50 | 32 | 6 | 6/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Witches Humb 2y 25 | - | - | 49 | - | 69 (1) | 39 (6) | 65 (2) | 56 (4) | 61 (3) | 59 (4) | 66 (2) | 67 (3) | 64 (3) | 69 (3) | 37 | 15 | 17 | 28 | 60 | 30 | 3 | 4/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Ardrath Jewelb 1y 5 | John Kiely — 13% R15 W2 P8 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | - | 57 (4) | 55 (4) | 75 (2) | 50 (6) | 77 (1) | 48 (6) | 53 (3) | - | - | - | 2 | 23 | 14 | 20 | 60 | 46 | 1 | 13/8JF | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Knockglass Sonicd 2y 16 | - | - | 34 | - | 40 (6) | 64 (3) | 70 (1) | 53 (3) | 49 (3) | 56 (2) | 36 (6) | 56 (2) | - | - | 14 | 23 | 10 | 21 | 54 | 36 | 4 | 5/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Mary Job 4y 14 | - | - | 54 | - | 54 (6) | 42 (6) | 55 (5) | 76 (1) | 57 (5) | 62 (3) | 51 (5) | 74 (1) | 74 (1) | 46 (6) | 24 | 39 | - | 21 | 57 | 48 | 2 | 10/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Only Jane | 29.49 | 29.90 | 29.49 | 54 | 0.00 | ||
| 2 | Cavies Spike | 29.68 | 30.50 | 29.68 | 36 | 0.00 | ||
| 3 | Witches Hum | 29.54 | 29.87 | 29.80 | 49 | +0.26 | ||
| 4 | Ardrath Jewel | 29.39 | 29.83 | 29.80 | 52 | +0.41 | ||
| 5 | Knockglass Sonic | 29.69 | 30.17 | 30.29 | 34 | +0.60 | ||
| 6 | Mary Jo | 29.48 | 29.83 | 29.60 | 54 | +0.12 |
Youghal's 525 metre trip is a fair galloping test, but the grade-by-grade data shows trap 3 has quietly been the best box at A5 level here, winning close to one in five, while trap 6 has been the weakest performer at just over one in ten. The model's own top-rated dog only wins around one in six races at this grade at Youghal, so the raw ratings need real support from speed or course form before being trusted. Mary Jo goes from the less favoured trap 6 but arrives with by far the strongest course and distance record in this field, and that proven local form is the stronger signal. Ardrath Jewel has flashed a career-best performance that nobody else here has matched, while Only Jane and Witches Hum both have claims from better boxes if the in-form types disappoint.
By some distance the strongest course and distance record in this field — three wins and three places from ten runs at this exact trip and track, a proven percentage that nobody else here can match. Also matches the fastest recorded time in the race on the clock. Trap 6 has been the weaker box at this grade here, which is a genuine knock, but the specialist local form is hard to ignore and she gets the vote as the one with the clearest proven formula for winning at Youghal over 525 metres.
Has posted a career-best performance rating of 77 in recent form that nobody else in this race has matched, showing she has a level in hand if it clicks. Course and distance record is moderate — one win from seven — but she was placed last time out from this same grade. Trainer John Kiely's string isn't prolific but the raw ability shown recently makes her the biggest threat if the selection under-performs.
Carries the highest average performance figure in the field and comes from trap 1, which has been a reasonably productive box at this grade. Her most recent run was over a much shorter trip, so this is a return to more suitable ground for her. Course and distance form has produced places but not a win from six attempts, meaning she's competitive without yet nailing one down at this exact test.
Drawn in the box that has produced the most winners at this grade over this trip, and she arrives on the back of a win at a lower grade last time out. Course and distance form of one win and three places from ten is respectable without being outstanding. A step up in company from that recent win, but the favourable draw keeps her firmly in the shake-up.
Finished last of six last time out but has shown better form before that, with a course and distance record of one win and three places from eight starts here. The recent dip looks more like a blip than a genuine decline given the level she's shown previously. Others in this field carry stronger recent claims.
The slowest recorded time in the field and carries the lowest average performance figure of the six. Course and distance record shows no wins and no places from ten attempts at this exact test, which is a genuine structural concern rather than bad luck. Hard to make a case for her against this opposition.
Key insight: Trap 3 is the strongest box at A5 level here (18.3% winners) and trap 6 the weakest (11%). The model's own top pick only wins around one in six at this grade, so course and distance form and current speed carry more weight than the raw rating.
Trap 1:16.75% Trap 2:14.36% Trap 3:18.32% Trap 4:14.08% Trap 5:16% Trap 6:10.99%
1,201 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 525m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 525m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (525m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 325m | 525m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Only Jane | 0.562 | 0.570 |
| 2 | Whitty Island | — | 0.579 |
| 3 | Witches Hum | — | 0.569 |
| 4 | Ardrath Jewel | — | 0.569 |
| 5 | Knockglass Sonic | — | 0.575 |
| 6 | Mary Jo | — | 0.568 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.