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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Hollyoak Poppetb 4y 25 | R W Butler — 17% R178 W30 P94 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 59 | - | 28 (1) | 36 (6) | 38 (5) | 42 (4) | 59 (2) | 40 (5) | 31 (1) | 24 (2) | 22 (3) | 30 (1) | 8 | 11 | 17 | 41 | 36 | 25 | 3 | 3/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Smooth As Satinb 4y 25 | G L Davidson — 16% R204 W33 P98 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | - | 19 (5) | 17 (6) | 27 (3) | 22 (6) | 28 (2) | 22 (4) | 28 (3) | 20 (6) | 27 (4) | 26 (5) | 28 | 26 | 12 | 13 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 3/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Ebony Trendb 4y 15 | M Mavrias — 13% R242 W32 P106 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | - | 28 (1) | 20 (4) | 17 (5) | 16 (6) | 21 (3) | 20 (4) | 23 (4) | 20 (4) | 21 (4) | 16 (6) | 26 | 13 | 2 | 20 | 21 | 20 | 6 | 10/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Eire Jeffd 1y | M Mavrias — 13% R242 W32 P106 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 30 | - | 17 (6) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 2 | - | - | - | 17 | 14 | 4 | 11/4 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Stophers Wotsitd 4y 25 | G L Davidson — 16% R204 W33 P98 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 58 | - | 24 (3) | 18 (6) | 20 (6) | 31 (1) | 19 (6) | 29 (2) | 26 (4) | 21 (4) | 30 (6) | - | 13 | 24 | 32 | 22 | 23 | 20 | 2 | 9/4F | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Free Derryd 6y 24 | B G Backhurst — 15% R226 W35 P117 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 43 | - | 22 (3) | 20 (4) | 18 (6) | 22 (3) | 24 (3) | 17 (5) | 15 (6) | 25 (3) | 21 (5) | 24 (4) | 30 | - | 15 | - | 21 | 22 | 5 | 8/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hollyoak Poppet | 16.87 | 17.14 | 17.23 | 59 | +0.36 | 3 wins from 5 | |
| 2 | Smooth As Satin | 16.95 | 17.19 | 17.48 | 53 | +0.53 | Best trap | |
| 3 | Ebony Trend | 17.18 | 17.42 | 17.34 | 47 | +0.16 | 1 win from 10 | |
| 4 | Eire Jeff | 17.67 | 17.67 | 17.67 | 30 | 0.00 | One career run | |
| 5 | Stophers Wotsit | 16.97 | 17.19 | 17.13 | 58 | +0.16 | 2 wins from 10 | |
| 6 | Free Derry | 17.12 | 17.45 | 17.59 | 43 | +0.47 | 0 places from 7 |
Sprints at Central Park come down to who gets across into the tricky first bend cleanest - there's no time for anyone to make up lost ground over the minimum trip. At this D4 grade, trap 2 has been the best draw at just under 22 per cent with trap 3 close behind, while trap 1 and trap 5 have both been poor at around 13-14 per cent. This is a modest grade all round, but Hollyoak Poppet stands out on raw ability - she's the fastest and best-rated dog in the field by some distance, even after dropping down a grade last time out to win easily. The rest of this field are far more evenly matched on the numbers, with the trap draw likely to decide the places behind her.
Head and shoulders above this field on the figures - the fastest recorded time and the best average performance rating by a distance, roughly 13 points clear of anything else in the race. She dropped down a grade last time out and won it with ease, and her course-and-distance record over this exact track and trip reads three wins and four places from just five starts, an outstanding return. Trap 1 has been the weakest draw at this grade, which is the one knock, but the gap in raw ability here is wide enough that the draw shouldn't stop her.
Sits in trap 2, the best-performing box at this D4 grade at just under 22 per cent, which keeps her involved despite modest form - no wins and just a single place from ten starts over this course and distance. Trainer G L Davidson has a decent 26 per cent strike rate at this level. The trap is doing most of the work, but it's a significant edge in a race with no other standout.
Trap 3 has been the second-best draw at this grade, just behind trap 2, and she did win last time out, though that was at the easier D5 grade rather than today's D4. Modest average performance figure and only one win from ten course-and-distance starts here. The trap helps but the form is unremarkable.
Only one career start to his name, so there's next to no form to judge him by yet - one run doesn't establish anything either way. That single run brought the slowest recorded time in this field and a last-place finish. Trap 4 is roughly average at this grade, but he needs to show a great deal more.
Owns the second-fastest recorded time in the field and has picked up two wins and three places from ten starts over this course and distance, a reasonable record. The problem is the draw - trap 5 has been the weakest box at this grade, even worse than trap 1 - which makes life difficult even with the pace to match the placed runners.
Trap 6 has been a touch above average at this grade, which is a point in his favour, but he has never placed in seven starts over this course and distance, which is hard to overlook. Modest recorded times throughout. Needs the form to click before he can be trusted.
Key insight: Trap 2 and trap 3 have been clearly the best draws at this D4 grade, while trap 1 and trap 5 have both been poor performers. The fastest dog in the field wins 23.6% of the time, just ahead of the composite favourite at 22.4% - both metrics point the same way at this grade.
T1:14.6% T2:22.0% T3:20.7% T4:18.3% T5:13.3% T6:19.0%
1,474 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 277m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 277m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (277m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 253m | 277m | 491m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hollyoak Poppet | — | 0.619 | 0.634 |
| 2 | Smooth As Satin | — | 0.621 | — |
| 3 | Ebony Trend | — | 0.629 | — |
| 4 | Eire Jeff | — | 0.638 | — |
| 5 | Stophers Wotsit | — | 0.621 | — |
| 6 | Free Derry | 0.631 | 0.630 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.