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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Yo Dutchessb 2y 16 | T J Nevin — 17% R443 W77 P216 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 48 | 31 (5) | 62 (1) | 18 (2) | 11 (5) | 38 (6) | 60 (2) | 36 (5) | 63 (1) | 13 (3) | 33 (5) | 36 | 30 | - | 28 | 50 | 43 | 5 | 4/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Blue Droutb 3y 27 | D O Pearce — 21% R143 W30 P86 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 62 | 36 (1) | 57 (3) | 89 (1) | 66 (2) | 34 (3) | 32 (3) | 25 (5) | 29 (4) | 38 (2) | 38 (2) | 72 | 61 | 18 | 37 | 65 | 62 | 1 | 5/2 | |
| 3 | ▶ Savana Heavenb 3y 15 | T J Nevin — 17% R443 W77 P216 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 43 | 55 | 56 (2) | 71 (1) | 15 (4) | 17 (2) | 22 (1) | 13 (3) | 48 (6) | 71 (1) | 67 (1) | 65 (1) | 37 | 35 | 27 | 36 | 56 | 49 | 3 | 7/2 | |
| 4 | ▶ Best Aoifeb 4y 34 | B G Backhurst — 17% R223 W37 P122 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | 53 | 30 (6) | 49 (5) | 67 (4) | 44 (5) | 63 (5) | 57 (4) | 65 (3) | 56 (5) | 60 (4) | 17 (5) | 31 | 28 | 28 | 24 | 58 | 47 | 4 | 10/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Soap Box Tailsb 2y 16 | D O Pearce — 21% R143 W30 P86 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 46 | 57 (2) | 56 (2) | 53 (2) | 73 (1) | 52 (4) | 54 (3) | 70 (1) | 39 (5) | 45 (4) | 43 (6) | 38 | 47 | 25 | 25 | 61 | 52 | 2 | 10/11F | |
Blue Drout is the standout on multiple metrics. Best performance in the field (65) by a clear margin. Best early pace (EP 65) and best bend rating (62) means he'll lead into the first turn from T2 with the rail. Trap suitability 72 at T2 is exceptional — this dog knows this box. Track suitability 61 is field-best. Trainer Pearce at 26% is the strongest handler on the card (moderate tier). Crucially, he ran 2nd at this exact CD — 450m Oxford A5 — proving he handles the grade. The Fader tag (CS 17) is the only concern but his last run was a dominant 81-rated win at 650m S3, showing he can sustain effort. Form trajectory: 81→67→48→70→63 — the 48 dip is a concern but bookended by strong efforts.
DANGER: A5-winning form and joint-best speed (52) with strong trainer (Pearce 26%). But form has collapsed (73→42→48→44) and extreme Fader from widest box. The danger if his form returns to 73-level, but trajectory says no.
Against. Two grades above her winning class with the worst performance rating in the field (50) and horrible recent form. Out of her depth.
Against. Slowest speed in the field (43), weakest trap (T3 at 19.1%), and unconvincing A5 form. The 76 peak shows ability but too inconsistent to trust.
Against. Pure Closer with no A5 winning form (5th, 4th). Needs the two Faders ahead to collapse simultaneously which is an unlikely parlay.
Trap bias is remarkably flat at Oxford 450m A5 — no single trap dominates. T1 and T4 marginally ahead at 22.2-22.3% but from smaller samples. Composite rank shows R4 actually wins most often (23.2%) meaning lower-rated dogs upset frequently — form is volatile at A5 level.
T1:22.3%(121) T2:20.1%(144) T3:19.1%(194) T4:22.2%(221) T5:20.9%(177) T6:20.6%(102)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 450m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Yo Dutchess | 50 | 54 | All-Rounder |
2Blue Drout | 65 | 17 | Fader |
3Savana Heaven | 53 | 50 | All-Rounder |
4Best Aoife | 0 | 100 | Closer |
6Soap Box Tails | 44 | 14 | Fader |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.