Drawn in trap 6, which is the worst structural draw at Newcastle A6 at 15.12% — a genuine handicap that the model has chosen to overlook based on other factors. A Closer who will need the race to develop, but the home straight at Newcastle is long enough to give late-running types time to hit their stride. Seven course and distance runs here with 1 win (14%). Recent form of 50, 36, 58, 61 shows a dog who peaks at a competitive level — the 61 from four runs ago and the 58 from three runs ago prove she can produce A6-level performances. The XGB model gives her a probability of 31% in this race — the highest of any runner by a significant margin — picking up on something the composite ratings alone do not fully capture. Trainer J T Edgar at 16%. The draw is the concern, but the model's conviction here is worth respecting in a genuinely open A6 contest.