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PGR on Sky Sports Stakes
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Alnwick Kennyd 2y 18 | A Harrison — 21% R543 W112 P326 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 52 | 20 (6) | 41 (6) | 54 (3) | 37 (3) | 50 (1) | 32 (4) | 29 (5) | 67 (1) | 55 (6) | - | 34 | 27 | - | - | 40 | 26 | 2 | 7/2 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Smiling Evamacb 1y 24 | J J Fenwick — 18% R506 W91 P283 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 50 | 23 (4) | 41 (5) | 35 (2) | 27 (5) | 45 (5) | 70 (1) | 35 (4) | 36 (6) | 57 (3) | 52 (2) | 13 | 18 | - | - | 39 | 23 | 3 | 7/4 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Be Here Nowd 1y 24 | J J Fenwick — 18% R506 W91 P283 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 16 | 42 | 30 (6) | 38 (6) | 48 (2) | 35 (6) | 25 (5) | 31 (4) | 34 (3) | 22 (6) | - | - | - | 7 | - | - | 34 | 18 | 4 | 11/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Babs Brandyb 4y 25 | J Walton — 13% R67 W9 P29 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 26 | 55 | 54 (3) | 27 (5) | 26 (6) | 46 (5) | 33 (6) | 35 (4) | 31 (2) | 41 (2) | 12 (2) | - | 31 | 34 | - | - | 36 | 23 | 5 | 7/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Wraysbury Queenb 2yN/R 15 | P Rutherford — 17% R341 W58 P170 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 62 | 44 | 31 (2) | 36 (2) | 35 (5) | 39 (5) | 37 (4) | 28 (5) | 50 (1) | 48 (3) | 40 (6) | 54 (3) | - | 26 | 18 | 18 | 37 | 23 | - | - | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Tina On Fireb 3y 18 | J J Fenwick — 18% R506 W91 P283 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 59 | 51 | 28 (3) | 40 (5) | 37 (6) | 32 (6) | 56 (2) | 61 (1) | 57 (1) | 38 (4) | 39 (4) | 31 (6) | 27 | 25 | - | - | 40 | 26 | 1 | 5/4F | - | |
Drawn in trap 6, which wins 21.05% at Newcastle D3 290m — the second-best structural position in the race, well above the 14-15% range of traps 1-3 and 5. Speed rating of 59 is the second-highest in the race, and her form earlier in the season (peaks of 56 and 61 from four to five runs ago) shows she is capable of competitive performances. Recent outings of 28, 40, 37 are below that peak level, but the model has identified her as the best combination of structural draw and speed for this grade. No 290m history is a genuine question mark, and as a Closer the sprint distance does not play to her strengths in theory. However, at D3 level on a short sprint with a track that rewards the right draw, the combination of second-best trap and second-best speed makes her the selection. Trainer J J Fenwick at 12%.
Danger: Best structural trap at this distance and grade, Fader pace profile, and best bend rating all align. Would be the pick if the structural case alone decided matters.
Strong trainer but no sprint history and poor structural trap. Limited appeal.
Second-best speed but poor trap and very poor recent form. Hard to support.
Lowest speed in the race and no sprint history. Cannot be recommended.
Speed rank 1 but Closer at a sprint from the weakest trap. The pace profile is a major concern here.
Trap 4 dominates at Newcastle D3 290m at 26.32% from 38 runs. Trap 6 is second at 21.05%. Speed rank 1 wins only 16.28% — raw speed is less predictive than trap position at this distance and grade.
T1:15.0% T2:14.63% T3:14.63% T4:26.32% T5:14.29% T6:21.05%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 290m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 290m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (290m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 290m | 480m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alnwick Kenny | 0.626 | 0.637 |
| 2 | Smiling Evamac | 0.620 | 0.638 |
| 3 | Be Here Now | — | 0.647 |
| 4 | Babs Brandy | — | 0.644 |
| 6 | Tina On Fire | 0.617 | 0.626 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.