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CORAL 515 TROPHY - HEAT 1
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Fantasy Alexd 3y 33 | B S Green — 20% R422 W83 P248 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 16 | 36 | 49 (5) | 61 (5) | 63 (4) | 42 (6) | 50 (5) | 61 (4) | 88 (1) | 74 (2) | 87 (1) | 60 (4) | 75 | 68 | 44 | - | 65 | 67 | 3 | 3/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Blackstone Operab 2y 10 | S A Cahill — 19% R380 W73 P227 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 73 | 40 | 94 (1) | 89 (1) | 90 (1) | 73 (2) | 88 (1) | 87 (1) | 59 (5) | 59 (5) | 89 (1) | 88 (1) | 51 | 75 | 51 | - | 64 | 64 | 2 | 9/2 | |
| 3 | ▶ Droopys Alldewayd 2y 15 | P W Young — 18% R1322 W243 P772 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 32 | 31 | 40 (6) | 91 (1) | 79 (2) | 59 (5) | 88 (1) | 59 (5) | 52 (6) | 53 (4) | 84 (1) | 67 (2) | 53 | 58 | 28 | 23 | 63 | 57 | 4 | 15/8 | |
| 4 | ▶ Montalto Giftb 2y 26 | B S Green — 20% R422 W83 P248 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 62 | 100 | 53 (5) | 71 (2) | 89 (1) | 70 (3) | 89 (1) | 75 (2) | 36 (6) | - | - | - | - | 37 | - | - | 60 | 52 | 6 | 25/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Slick Mickd 2y 27 | G S Byford — 23% R237 W54 P142 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 59 | 100 | 72 (3) | 71 (3) | 84 (1) | 57 (5) | 73 (2) | 53 (5) | 76 (2) | 74 (2) | 72 (3) | 72 (2) | 30 | 51 | 23 | - | 64 | 56 | 5 | 40/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Moving Forced 3y 110 | S A Cahill — 19% R380 W73 P227 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 39 | 85 (1) | 84 (1) | 75 (1) | 63 (3) | 64 (5) | 63 (3) | 68 (3) | 77 (2) | 89 (2) | - | 57 | 69 | 49 | 59 | 72 | 68 | 1 | 6/4F | |
The clear standout on every meaningful metric for a 515m staying trip. Pure Closer (EP 0, CS 100) with the best perf in the field at 72 — 8 points clear of the next dog. Two consecutive 80 perfs is extraordinary and shows peak-level ability. Form trajectory: 72→63→56→76→80→80, showing a stunning improvement curve peaking right now. Critically, she has by far the best distance suit at 59 — the only runner with proven 515m form of any substance. Track suit 69, trap suit 57, and class suit 49 are all field-best or joint-best. Suit mean 59 is 12 points clear of the next runner. At 515m on Hove's galloping track, three Faders will lead and die, and this Closer has the proven distance form and peak performance to clean up. The weakness is Trainer Cahill at 18% — well below awareness tier. But when the data is this one-sided, trainer WR is a secondary concern.
DANGER: Fastest dog by a mile (73) with closing speed 100. When the Faders collapse at 515m, he'll be flying through. But distance suit 0 and inconsistency (47→73→50→75) mean you're gambling on the boom version showing up. If he fires, he wins on speed alone.
Fader with CS 0 at 515m = structural mismatch. Pace consistency 18 means she probably won't even lead. Distance suit 0 confirms she's untested at this trip. Third or worse.
Closing speed without the raw pace to capitalise. Speed 32 means even as the Faders die, he's gaining ground too slowly. Fifth or sixth.
ELIMINATE: Suit mean 9, dist/trap/class all 0, CS 0 at 515m, includes a 31 perf. Structural impossibility.
Byford 38% dropping from A1 to OR3 is a serious signal, but CS 0 at 515m on a galloping track overrides the trainer edge. He'll lead until 350m and the Closers will swallow him. Place at best — Byford's placement is about the e/w market.
Small sample (74 runs) makes trap data less reliable but T1 stands out at 26.32% from 19 runs. R1 composite only wins 15.69% — upsets are very common in OR3 staying races. The model is practically useless here, favouring race shape analysis.
T1:26.32% T2:10.00% T3:8.33% T4:8.33% T5:16.67% T6:11.11%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 515m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Fantasy Alex | 100 | 0 | Fader |
2Blackstone Opera | 0 | 100 | Closer |
3Droopys Alldeway | 0 | 100 | Closer |
4Montalto Gift | 100 | 0 | Fader |
5Slick Mick | 100 | 0 | Fader |
6Moving Force | 0 | 100 | Closer |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.