| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Hitthelids Marcod 3y 27 | N J Deas — 17% R447 W76 P245 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 42 | 37 | 29 (6) | 57 (3) | 61 (2) | 33 (2) | 29 (4) | 60 (5) | 41 (1) | 32 (3) | 40 (1) | 81 (3) | 46 | 24 | - | - | 41 | 39 | 4 | 5/2 | |
| 2 | ▶ Ardera Lassb 4y 26 | K J Crocker — 16% R142 W23 P78 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 50 | 47 (5) | 72 (1) | 68 (1) | 54 (4) | 37 (6) | 54 (2) | 61 (2) | 62 (2) | 59 (2) | 73 (1) | 34 | 47 | 43 | 51 | 58 | 53 | 2 | 10/3 | |
| 3 | ▶ Swift Nissand 3y 14 | C A Grasso — 10% R31 W3 P13 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | 53 | 45 (4) | 51 (2) | 45 (4) | 47 (2) | 41 (4) | 44 (5) | 63 (2) | 61 (2) | 35 (6) | 41 (5) | 35 | 32 | 41 | 26 | 54 | 46 | 3 | 5/2 | |
| 4 | ▶ Salacres Saharad 2yN/R 5 | P H Harnden — 18% R396 W71 P224 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 51 | 53 (4) | 55 (4) | 71 (1) | 49 (3) | 57 (2) | 59 (2) | 54 (3) | 33 (2) | 52 (5) | - | 5 | 27 | 13 | 28 | 52 | 41 | - | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Lunar Moonb 2y 27 | L J Pruhs — 23% R26 W6 P16 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 44 | 39 (5) | 57 (2) | 53 (3) | 53 (3) | 44 (5) | 53 (4) | 59 (3) | 28 (5) | 36 (1) | 23 (5) | 21 | 19 | - | 14 | 46 | 36 | 5 | 2/1F | |
| 6 | ▶ Bellicus Breezeb 4y 17 | A Welch — 15% R313 W47 P159 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | 56 | 47 (4) | 62 (1) | 39 (5) | 47 (2) | 48 (5) | 46 (4) | 43 (4) | 51 (6) | 57 (3) | - | 28 | 23 | 26 | 23 | 60 | 48 | 1 | 8/1 | |
P60 is the best in the field by a clear margin, and her most recent performance of 71 — winning at A5 here — is the standout form figure in this race. The chronological trajectory is compelling: 44→51→55→52→71, showing a dramatic improvement to a career-best that also happened to be at exact CD conditions (Towcester 500m A5). Her All-Rounder profile (EP 50, CS 38, PC 72) is a balanced pace profile that works at Towcester 500m. Speed 45 is the one weakness — the slowest in the field — but she compensates with bend rating 56 (best). The structural concern is T6 at A5 500m — just 12.5% from 184 runs, the worst draw. And her suitability scores are modest — track 23, distance 23, trap 28, class 26. So why pick her? Because the P gap is significant (P60 vs P58 for second-best Ardera Lass), the form trajectory is surging, she WON at exact conditions last time, and the All-Rounder profile means she doesn't need to rely on pace or closing speed alone. Trainer Welch at 16% is below average. The T6 draw and low suit scores are the risks — but proven CD winners in rising form get the nod.
DANGER: Best suitability in the field (T47, D51, Cl43), in the effective premier trap (T2 22.0%), surging form to 68. Trainer Crocker 12% is the one weakness. If Breeze falters, she's the one.
The T1 advantage at 32.1% is enormous but meaningless when the dog has zero distance form. D suit 0, P41 (weakest), and almost exclusively sprint form make this a structural mismatch that no trap draw can fix.
Best speed in field (56) and was 2nd at A5 last time. But volatile form (35→72 range) and modest suitability limit confidence. Can place but too inconsistent to pick.
Consistent A5 placer (3rd, 5th, 3rd) but trap suit 5 is near zero and form is flat. P52 is mid-range. She'll fill 3rd-5th again but lacks the tools to win.
Strong trainer Pruhs 31% but P46, poor suitability across the board, and T5 draw all work against her. Consistent placer (3rd, 3rd, 5th at A5) but never a winner here.
T1 dominates at 32.1% from 218 runs — the strongest T1 bias at any Towcester grade today. T6 is the weakest at just 12.5% from 184 runs. T2 also strong at 22.0%. R1 wins 24.1% from 590 runs. The T1 advantage is enormous but the T1 runner has D suit 0.
T1:32.1% T2:22.0% T3:17.7% T4:17.6% T5:14.6% T6:12.5%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Hitthelids Marco | 50 | 56 | Closer |
2Ardera Lass | 51 | 57 | Closer |
3Swift Nissan | 50 | 42 | All-Rounder |
4Salacres Sahara | 52 | 44 | All-Rounder |
5Lunar Moon | 40 | 91 | Closer |
6Bellicus Breeze | 50 | 38 | All-Rounder |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.