Loading...
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Rheas Petb 1y 13 | D D Porter — 17% R527 W90 P288 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | - | 27 (4) | 27 (5) | 36 (1) | 31 (3) | 36 (1) | 24 (4) | 30 (2) | 25 (5) | - | - | 49 | 37 | - | 37 | - | 14 | 6 | 9/2 | |
| 2 | ▶ Salacres Faraged 2y 16 | P H Harnden — 18% R396 W71 P224 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | - | 37 (4) | 59 (1) | 33 (6) | 56 (2) | 63 (1) | 24 (2) | 23 (5) | 27 (3) | 31 (2) | 26 (4) | 17 | 21 | 17 | 24 | 28 | 25 | 2 | 2/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Eileens Runb 3y 19 | N J Deas — 17% R452 W77 P249 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | - | 32 (1) | 19 (5) | 8 (6) | 23 (6) | 22 (5) | 31 (2) | 30 (1) | 28 (2) | 20 (4) | 31 (1) | 43 | 38 | 20 | 38 | 25 | 30 | 3 | 8/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Noirs Bonod 2y 4 | A Welch — 15% R317 W47 P160 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | - | 33 (1) | 26 (4) | 31 (3) | 35 (1) | 33 (3) | 28 (2) | 26 (4) | 31 (5) | 75 (2) | - | 58 | 31 | 37 | 31 | 58 | 52 | 1 | 15/8F | |
| 5 | ▶ Killaheen Beautyb 2y 26 | S J Roberts — 7% R15 W1 P7 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 16 (6) | 20 (6) | 20 (6) | 26 (3) | 28 (3) | 31 (2) | 32 (1) | 23 (4) | 19 (5) | 29 (2) | 38 | 29 | 19 | 29 | 27 | 29 | 4 | 5/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Cragbrien Herod 2y 25 | D D Porter — 17% R527 W90 P288 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | - | 30 (4) | 31 (4) | 24 (6) | 36 (1) | 27 (2) | 32 (1) | 24 (2) | 24 (4) | 26 (4) | 28 (3) | 14 | 10 | - | 10 | 25 | 20 | 5 | 6/1 | |
The class of this field by a country mile. P58 is THIRTY points clear of the next-best (P28) — a chasm that's almost unprecedented in a graded race. At 270m sprint distance, his Fader profile (EP 100, CS 0, PC 91) is not the liability it would be at 500m — the trip is too short for the fade to develop. He'll lead from flag-fall with that explosive EP 100 and the others simply don't have the speed to close the gap over such a short distance. Speed 51 is above average for the field. Suitability is solid — trap 58 is the best in the field, distance 31 decent. His recent form reads 5th, 2nd, 2nd at D3 level — the 5th was the anomaly in an otherwise strong CD record. The chronological form (75→14→18→31→26) shows his most recent competitive run was a 75 performance followed by some dips — but at D3 270m, his raw class advantage is so large that moderate form dips don't bridge the gap. Trainer Welch at 16% is below average but the class override is absolute here.
DANGER: Best of the rest at P28 with speed 53, in the joint-best trap (T2 23.0%). Consistent D3 performer with 2nd last time. The 30-point P gap to Bono is the problem, but he's the one to fill 2nd if the favourite delivers.
Unproven in graded company — trial form (1st, 3rd, 2nd) is encouraging but the step to D3 is unknown. T1 draw helps slightly but trainer Porter 10% and zero competitive form make her a speculative proposition.
Solid CD knowledge (suit T38, D38, Tr43) but P25 and recent form decline (6th, 5th at D3) suggest she's struggling at this level. Will fill a place but unlikely to threaten the win.
Consistent placer at D3 (3rd, 3rd, 2nd) but P27, weakest draw (T5 13.7%), and low trainer WR (11%) mean she fills places without threatening the win.
Basement-level suitability (T10, D10, Tr14) in the weakest draw (T6 13.9%) with P25 and trainer Porter 10%. Can be confidently opposed — the structural mismatch is severe.
Fairly even trap bias with T1 (22.8%) and T2 (23.0%) marginally best from 294 and 392 runs respectively. T5 and T6 are the weaker draws at 13.7% and 13.9%. Composite R1 wins 22.4% from 872 runs. 270m sprints at Towcester are more chaotic and less trap-dependent than the 500m trip.
T1:22.8% T2:23.0% T3:21.6% T4:20.4% T5:13.7% T6:13.9%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 270m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.