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HAPPY BIRTHDAY DAN BLAKE
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Class | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Rating | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Sams Magicb 2y 13 | N J Hunt — 20% R355 W70 P193 Trainer form — last 3 months | 52 | 76 | 90 (1) | 71 (4) | 57 (5) | 59 (4) | 79 (3) | 91 (1) | 93 (1) | 74 (1) | 58 (3) | - | 58 | 43 | 25 | 52 | 75 | 55 | 2 | 7/4 | ||
| 2 | ▶ Holding Blazed 2y 15 | R Taberner — 20% R685 W136 P401 Trainer form — last 3 months | 48 | 31 | 71 (2) | 75 (3) | 80 (2) | 77 (3) | 53 (5) | 46 (3) | 29 (6) | 70 (3) | 54 (1) | - | 19 | 30 | 6 | 26 | 66 | 48 | 4 | 7/1 | ||
| 3 | ▶ Droopys Dorisb 3y 16 | K R Hutton — 27% R121 W33 P72 Trainer form — last 3 months | 42 | 72 | 72 (3) | 59 (4) | 88 (1) | 43 (6) | 44 (6) | 92 (1) | 82 (2) | 93 (1) | 78 (3) | 93 (1) | 44 | 23 | 48 | 35 | 71 | 44 | 3 | 6/1 | ||
| 4 | ▶ Droopys Pokerd 2y 14 | K Billingham-hine — 19% R576 W107 P325 Trainer form — last 3 months | 51 | 64 | 76 (2) | 56 (5) | 60 (6) | 70 (4) | 93 (3) | 93 (1) | 68 (1) | 73 (4) | 93 (3) | - | 36 | 24 | 20 | 38 | 73 | 52 | 5 | 12/1 | ||
| 5 | ▶ Aero Pumpkind 2y 24 | R Taberner — 20% R685 W136 P401 Trainer form — last 3 months | 44 | 15 | 69 (3) | 56 (2) | 61 (5) | 74 (2) | 100 (1) | 90 (1) | - | - | - | - | 47 | - | - | - | 72 | 44 | 6 | 25/1 | ||
| 6 | ▶ Wise Tournamentb 2y 112 | D J Page — 22% R83 W18 P50 Trainer form — last 3 months | 61 | 23 | 91 (1) | 91 (1) | 75 (2) | 81 (1) | 68 (2) | - | - | - | - | - | 63 | 71 | 52 | 73 | 83 | 65 | 1 | 10/11F | ||
Heads the h3 combined model by the narrowest possible margin — 59.0 to Wise Tournament's 58.6 — and makes an equally strong case based on form and draw. Also won the OR3 480m here last Wednesday at P90, confirming identical on-song credentials with the AI Pick alternative. An EP100 Fader with the best bend rating in the race at 76, she will explode from the break and look to dominate from the front, drawing rivals wide and setting a punishing early tempo from trap 1. The red jacket at OR3 480m Monmore wins 21.74% from 46 qualifying runs — the second-best draw in the race. Track suitability 43 and distance suitability 52 confirm she is familiar and comfortable over this trip at this venue. N J Hunt trains at 34% — the best strike rate on the card. The case against resting solely on the composite gap and the slightly inferior draw to trap 6.
Discretionary AI Pick. Best composite (65), best draw, won here twice in a row, highest suitability scores across three dimensions. Overwhelming structural evidence despite the marginal h3 deficit.
Strong composite and elite recent runs — but below-average draw and recent form softening limit the win case. A serious each-way option if draw allows.
Improving form shows genuine ability but the dead trap 3 draw at 7.14% makes winning very difficult regardless of merit.
Impressive consistency in form but structural dead draw and Closer profile combine to make a winning projection very difficult.
P100 run shows exceptional ability at peak but recent form below that level and structural draw both suppress the win probability. A wild card with upside.
Trap 6 and trap 1 dominate OR3 480m at Monmore. Traps 2, 3 and 5 are all significantly suppressed. Composite rank 3 curiously wins 26.67% — pace profile and draw are more predictive at this grade than composite rank alone.
T1:21.74%(46r) T2:11.63%(43r) T3:7.14%(42r) T4:14.58%(48r) T5:12.77%(47r) T6:24.44%(45r)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Sams Magic | 100 | 0 | Fader |
2Holding Blaze | 0 | 100 | Closer |
3Droopys Doris | 49 | 95 | Closer |
4Droopys Poker | 51 | 5 | All-Rounder |
5Aero Pumpkin | 55 | 0 | Fader |
6Wise Tournament | 0 | 100 | Closer |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.