| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Ower Mysteryd 5y 15 | J E Harvey — 18% R71 W13 P41 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 49 | 74 (5) | 77 (5) | 81 (3) | 58 (1) | 66 (1) | 26 (5) | 45 (3) | 40 (6) | - | - | 76 | 75 | 25 | 52 | 48 | 55 | 3 | 2/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Bluestar Bossd 3y 4 | A J Taylor — 13% R339 W45 P158 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | 45 | 43 (6) | 70 (2) | 80 (1) | 60 (3) | 65 (2) | 65 (6) | 70 (2) | 59 (3) | 53 (5) | 71 (5) | 41 | 48 | 23 | 44 | 63 | 56 | 5 | 12/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Breffni Unab 2y 27 | J T Kingsley — 14% R160 W22 P83 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | 57 | 51 (4) | 73 (2) | 66 (4) | 53 (6) | 64 (3) | 71 (2) | 51 (5) | 49 (6) | 73 (3) | 80 (2) | 57 | 42 | - | 25 | 67 | 58 | 1 | 10/3 | |
| 4 | ▶ Gin For Lisab 2y 14 | G S Byford — 23% R237 W54 P142 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 50 | 52 (5) | 61 (2) | 44 (6) | 45 (5) | 63 (3) | 67 (2) | 79 (1) | 47 (5) | 74 (2) | 77 (1) | 39 | 44 | - | 44 | 65 | 57 | 4 | 8/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Bu Han Tagd 3y 15 | J T Kingsley — 14% R160 W22 P83 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 59 | 48 | 70 (5) | 87 (4) | 85 (1) | 65 (1) | 70 (3) | 71 (2) | 74 (2) | 61 (2) | 62 (4) | - | 48 | 47 | 44 | 43 | 68 | 60 | 2 | 1/1F | |
Bu Han Tag takes the pick on the strength of the highest composite score (60) in the field, underpinned by the best average performance (68) and the field's best speed rating (59). His form trajectory shows solid consistency at the top end — 65→70→71 in his last three runs, with three consecutive placed efforts (3rd, 2nd, 2nd). The concern is that he's a Fader (CS 0, pace consistency 85) from T6 on the outside, which at Hove 500m means he'll need to break well enough to hold a forward position through the first bend without being carried wide. His EP of 59 says he will get there — it's the sustainability that's the question. However, at A2 grade, the composite model retains some predictive value (R1 21.9% vs R3 15.9%) and Bu Han Tag's class edge over the field (avgPerf 68 vs next best 67) combined with balanced suitability across all four dimensions (track 47, distance 43, trap 48, class 44) gives him the most rounded profile. Kingsley's 14% WR is low, but the dog's consistent placed form and best-in-field speed suggest he's well placed at this level. CD form of 3,2,2 at Hove 500m shows he consistently gets into the frame here.
Best Closer profile in the field with genuine bend ability and strong ceiling (73, 80 recent). If the Faders weaken through the final bends, she's the one to catch them. Main threat.
Elite suitability in a structurally advantaged trap, but erratic performance (22-66 range) makes him unreliable as a win pick. Place contender at best.
Pure Closer with zero EP and below-average speed will be playing catch-up throughout. Can produce occasional big performances but too inconsistent to trust.
Dangerous Fader in the best structural trap. Elite EP and strong recent form (79, 74, 77) but CS 0 on a galloping track means the fade is a genuine risk through the final bends.
Remarkably flat trap bias across A2 500m — no single trap dominates massively. R1 vs R2 gap is just 0.04pp (21.86% vs 21.82%) meaning the top-rated dog barely edges the second-rated over 1,117 runs. The composite model has some predictive value (R1 21.9% vs R3 15.9%) but this is still a competitive grade where quality runners are closely matched. Speed rank 1 wins 21.76% — almost identical to composite rank 1, suggesting speed and composite tell a similar story here.
T1:21.3% T2:19.6% T3:19.4% T4:22.2% T5:20.9% T6:20.5%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Ower Mystery | 42 | 50 | All-Rounder |
2Bluestar Boss | 0 | 100 | Closer |
3Breffni Una | 50 | 100 | Closer |
4Gin For Lisa | 60 | 0 | Fader |
6Bu Han Tag | 59 | 0 | Fader |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.