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Doncaster 483 Maiden - Division 2
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Ivy Hill Stellab 2y 6 | D Calvert — 17% R545 W93 P315 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 73 | 50 (5) | 85 (1) | 53 (5) | 85 (1) | 72 (2) | 51 (5) | 87 (1) | 72 (2) | 75 (2) | 51 (2) | 28 | 72 | - | 74 | 66 | 63 | 4 | 9/4 | |
| 2 | ▶ Ferryforth Codyd 3y 34 | D Calvert — 17% R545 W93 P315 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 27 | 59 (5) | 64 (2) | 80 (2) | 67 (3) | 73 (2) | 87 (1) | 79 (2) | 67 (4) | 83 (1) | 61 (3) | 76 | 63 | 14 | 55 | 74 | 71 | 1 | 11/8F | |
| 3 | ▶ Ballymac Ivannab 3y 24 | S J L Lapidge — 18% R320 W56 P187 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | 21 | 81 (3) | 75 (2) | 69 (3) | 85 (1) | 84 (1) | 71 (3) | 57 (4) | 80 (2) | 74 (2) | 40 (4) | 58 | 51 | 28 | 34 | 58 | 54 | 5 | 8/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Sparta Knightd 3y 34 | C A Williams — 15% R362 W53 P183 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 100 | 100 | 36 (5) | 59 (1) | 43 (2) | 43 (2) | 54 (2) | 48 (2) | 44 (3) | 59 (1) | 57 (1) | 59 (1) | 41 | 40 | - | 27 | 51 | 46 | 3 | 33/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Burnpark Margob 2yN/R 7 | S Watson — 31% R414 W128 P292 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 13 | 9 | 78 (1) | 56 (4) | 79 (3) | 74 (3) | 89 (2) | 65 (3) | 39 (5) | 50 (5) | 69 (5) | 56 (6) | 25 | 35 | 14 | 31 | 56 | 47 | - | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Ballyconnell Ruad 3y 26 | S Watson — 31% R414 W128 P292 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 100 | 100 | 44 (4) | 51 (2) | 49 (3) | 42 (4) | 62 (1) | 38 (5) | 47 (3) | 42 (4) | 64 (1) | 62 (1) | 49 | 44 | - | 15 | 49 | 44 | 2 | 7/4 | |
The clear leader on composite at 71 — an 8-point gap over the nearest rival. A Closer (EP 0, CS 100) with the field's best performance at 74. Form of 3,1,2,1,1 is outstanding — three wins and a 2nd from five. Perf trend 67→23→20→21→21 is puzzling though — the last four runs are all at very low levels (20-23 perf) despite the positions being excellent (wins and 2nds). This suggests he's winning in weak fields rather than running well. Speed 53 and bend 27 are modest — the bend rating is notably low for a Closer. Suitability is excellent: TS63, DS55, TrpS76 — all strong, with the trap suit 76 from T2 confirming a strong T2 record. Drawn T2 at 20.8% from 48 runs — decent. Trainer Calvert at 20%. The suitability, form positions, and composite gap make this a solid pick despite the low perf trend in recent runs.
DANGER: Never worse than 2nd, field-best track (72) and distance (74) suitability, best bend (73). An exceptionally reliable runner who's always in the frame.
Will lead early but low bend (21) and CS 0 at 483m mean she'll lose position through the race. Volatile form (80 to 21 in three runs) makes her unreliable.
Perfect speed and bend as a Fader — will lead early. Never worse than 2nd is reliable. But CS 0 at 483m and weak T4 draw limit winning prospects. A strong place runner.
Watson at 32% is a positive but speed 13 and bend 9 are catastrophically low for a Closer. Despite the decent raw perf (56), she can't close without speed. Hard to see a path to victory.
Watson at 30% and a strong last run (62) but Fader from weak T6 at 483m. Will set pace alongside Sparta Knight but both will weaken for the Closers to exploit.
Three Faders (all EP 100, CS 0) vs three Closers (all CS 100) — pace dynamics overwhelmingly favour Closers at 483m. Ferryforth Cody and Ivy Hill Stella are the genuine contenders.
T1:19.2%(52) T2:20.8%(48) T3:20.9%(43) T4:10.9%(46) T5:17.8%(45) T6:12.1%(33)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 483m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Ivy Hill Stella | 0 | 100 | Closer |
2Ferryforth Cody | 0 | 100 | Closer |
3Ballymac Ivanna | 100 | 0 | Fader |
4Sparta Knight | 100 | 0 | Fader |
5Burnpark Margo | 0 | 100 | Closer |
6Ballyconnell Rua | 100 | 0 | Fader |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.