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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Mind The Mouseb 4y 33 | M J Richards — 16% R162 W26 P83 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | - | 22 (5) | 20 (5) | 31 (1) | 25 (3) | 26 (2) | 27 (2) | 71 (4) | 27 (6) | 36 (2) | 28 (5) | 62 | 31 | 28 | 31 | 34 | 37 | 1 | 4/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ John Boy Henryd 4y 14 | P M Donovan — 18% R130 W23 P78 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 58 | - | 31 (3) | 32 (4) | 36 (1) | 31 (1) | 28 (2) | 23 (3) | 22 (5) | 35 (3) | 38 (2) | 39 (2) | 43 | 11 | 15 | 11 | 29 | 26 | 3 | 8/15F | |
| 3 | ▶ Sitdownshutupd 1y 24 | A Herbert — 15% R67 W10 P35 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 42 | - | 23 | 52 (6) | 32 (2) | 23 (1) | 20 (2) | 19 (4) | 17 (5) | 22 (5) | 25 (4) | - | 32 | 44 | 11 | 42 | 21 | 27 | 5 | 9/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Cashout Roryd 3y 15 | M J Richards — 16% R162 W26 P83 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 42 | - | 24 (4) | 22 (5) | 24 (3) | 29 (2) | 31 (1) | 14 (6) | 24 (3) | 23 (5) | 21 (5) | 29 (1) | 49 | 35 | 47 | 30 | 23 | 28 | 4 | 16/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Flyers Geezerd 3y 7 | C Gardiner — 22% R366 W79 P202 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 27 (4) | 28 (4) | 27 (4) | 32 (1) | 26 (3) | 26 (2) | 29 (2) | 26 (3) | 26 (3) | 20 (5) | 51 | 50 | 40 | 50 | 27 | 35 | 2 | 10/3 | |
The structural and individual case aligns impressively for this selection. Trap 1 at Hove's 285-metre trip generates 30.6% winners from 85 runs — approaching double the baseline expectation — and Mind The Mouse's personal record from the box shows a trap suitability of 62, confirming he has fired consistently from the inside berth. He holds the highest average performance in this D4 field and the model's composite ranking puts him clearly ahead. Despite a third-place finish last time out — when the comment shows he had early pace and railed but was ultimately outbattled — he demonstrated the traits that make him dangerous at this distance: quick into his stride and comfortable on the rail. At 285 metres there is very little time to recover from a slow break, so a dog that starts well and rails cleanly has a decisive structural edge.
Formally dominant trap, strong trainer, consistent form — a genuine danger, though the rail dog starts with a significant position advantage.
Best speed in the field but habitually slow away and limited course form — potential if things click but hard to trust.
Declining form and slow-away tendencies at a sprint distance — one to oppose.
Weak structural draw, consistent but limited form — nothing here to suggest he can upset the principals.
Trap 1 produces 30.6% winners at Hove 285m D4 from 85 runs — nearly double the expected rate and by far the strongest draw in the race. The sample is slightly below the 100-run formal threshold but the magnitude of the signal is too large to ignore. Composite rank 1 wins 23.8% vs rank 3 at 16.5% — a clear 7.4 percentage point gap, the best separation of any race on this card.
T1:30.6% T2:18.8% T3:18.0% T4:22.1% T5:14.8% T6:21.7%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 285m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.