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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Class | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Rating | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Clairkeith Candyb 2y 26 | C Gardiner — 22% R349 W76 P200 Trainer form — last 3 months | 43 | 43 | 73 (2) | 80 (1) | 65 (3) | 73 (1) | 55 (4) | 69 (2) | 46 (2) | 48 (6) | 75 (4) | - | 57 | 65 | 47 | 58 | 62 | 61 | 1 | 3/1 | ||
| 2 | ▶ Five Wintersb 4y 22 | D D Knight — 18% R233 W43 P137 Trainer form — last 3 months | 58 | 50 | 43 (4) | 46 (5) | 53 (3) | 54 (5) | 71 (2) | 67 (2) | 46 (4) | 60 (3) | 58 (4) | 67 (2) | 38 | 34 | 34 | 39 | 62 | 53 | 2 | 5/2 | ||
| 3 | ▶ Arabellab 2y 16 | A Herbert — 15% R65 W10 P34 Trainer form — last 3 months | 55 | 39 | 88 (1) | 75 (2) | 46 (2) | 61 (6) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 85 | 81 | - | 70 | - | 28 | 5 | 6/1 | ||
| 4 | ▶ Hes Non Stopd 1y 24 | A Herbert — 15% R65 W10 P34 Trainer form — last 3 months | 51 | 51 | 48 (3) | 57 (5) | 69 (3) | 72 (2) | 49 (1) | 64 (4) | 28 (1) | 77 (4) | 40 (4) | - | 29 | 63 | 15 | 45 | 59 | 54 | 3 | 13/8F | ||
| 6 | ▶ Mertonaby Ladd 2y 28 | A J Taylor — 13% R333 W43 P157 Trainer form — last 3 months | 44 | 60 | 50 (4) | 51 (5) | 57 (4) | 41 (5) | 77 (1) | 55 (4) | 71 (1) | 36 (5) | 58 (4) | 71 (1) | 33 | 44 | 27 | 33 | 56 | 49 | 4 | 9/2 | ||
The model's selection, and the structural case carries genuine weight — trap 1 produces 23.4% winners at Hove 500m A4 from 282 runs, and her personal record shows a trap suitability of 57 meaning she has historically competed well from the rail. Track and distance suitability are excellent at 65 and 58 respectively, confirming deep course knowledge. Trainer Cathy Gardiner returns 30% nationally, the strongest handler in this race. The honest concern is a dramatic recent form decline — from performances of 75 and 68 earlier in her campaign to very low scores in her last two runs, both of which involved significant interference. Last time out she was slow into her stride and crowded twice on the way round. If those disruptions explain the scores, a cleaner run today could see the real ability surface. A Closer profile suits Hove's galloping trip. But this is a flat, hard-to-call race and the recent scores demand honest acknowledgement.
Most consistent form in the race and best speed — but the structural headwind from trap 2 is significant from a large sample. The horse to beat if the draw holds less influence than usual today.
Inconsistent form and a Fader profile on a galloping track — good early pace but likely to weaken before the line.
Best structural draw in the race, but poor trainer record and limited individual trap confirmation make this a hard selection to trust.
Unknown quantity on her graded debut — extraordinary trial suitability scores but no performance baseline to assess against this competition.
At Hove 500m A4, trap 6 produces the highest win rate at 26.4% from 174 runs, with trap 1 also dominant at 23.4% from 282 runs. Trap 2 at 15.2% from 303 runs is the weakest draw from a very large sample. Composite rank separation is just 1.7 percentage points between rank 1 and rank 3 — the flattest race on the card today — meaning trap bias and individual form weigh heavily.
T1:23.4% T2:15.2% T3:19.8% T4:17.5% T5:17.1% T6:26.4%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Clairkeith Candy | 47 | 55 | Closer |
2Five Winters | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
3Arabella | 37 | 100 | Closer |
4Hes Non Stop | 60 | 0 | Fader |
6Mertonaby Lad | 55 | 20 | Fader |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.