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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Detroit Blud 1y 13 | D T Smith — 16% R403 W64 P196 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 42 | 47 | 52 (4) | 73 (1) | 68 (1) | 35 (1) | 50 (2) | 50 (2) | 58 (2) | 61 | 44 (1) | - | 35 | 31 | - | 23 | 30 | 30 | 5 | 5/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Darbys Rainbowd 5y 26 | S W Deakin — 17% R519 W87 P242 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 53 | 21 (6) | 44 (4) | 49 (3) | 51 (2) | 46 (3) | 55 (2) | 40 (4) | 50 (4) | 44 (4) | 51 (2) | 44 | 30 | 45 | 39 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 4/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Headford Minellab 2y 7 | S W Deakin — 17% R519 W87 P242 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 60 | 51 (2) | 40 (4) | 29 (6) | 55 (4) | 61 | 35 (2) | 36 (1) | 56 (5) | - | - | 55 | 51 | 21 | 54 | 48 | 50 | 1 | 7/2 | |
| 4 | ▶ Darbyshill Bonod 3y 8 | M T Field — 22% R237 W52 P126 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 28 | 46 | 54 (1) | 36 (5) | 33 (4) | 49 (2) | 27 (6) | 39 (5) | 30 (5) | 28 (6) | 60 (1) | 41 (4) | 27 | 28 | 15 | 29 | 38 | 35 | 2 | 12/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Gripper Dand 3y 15 | R Williams — 15% R321 W47 P156 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 41 | 31 (5) | 49 (2) | 33 (6) | 36 (3) | 39 | 50 (6) | 53 (5) | 45 (3) | - | - | 25 | 35 | 25 | 27 | 49 | 42 | 4 | 11/4 | |
| 6 | ▶ Knock Voodoob 4y 36 | K S Harrison — 17% R348 W58 P193 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 50 | 64 (1) | 57 (2) | 51 (2) | 54 (3) | 52 (3) | 34 (6) | 59 (2) | 41 (6) | 67 (1) | 59 (2) | 37 | 39 | 38 | 33 | 49 | 45 | 6 | 15/8F | |
The predicted winner but drawn in a serious structural headwind — T3 is the dead trap at Dunstall Park 480m A6, winning just 9.1% from 77 runs. As a confirmed Closer (EP 26, CS 100), she will be well behind through the first bend and needs to close from the worst structural position. Her most recent form is encouraging with a 60 performance last time stepping up from A7, and her suitability scores are the best in the field — trap 55, track 46, distance 45 — suggesting she personally goes well from T3 despite the aggregate data saying otherwise. The model clearly weights this individual suitability heavily. Trainer S W Deakin at 10% is below average. The case for the pick rests entirely on whether individual suitability (trap suit 55) can overcome aggregate trap failure (9.1% win rate).
DANGER: Best ratings in the field (avgP 51, speed 58) in a structurally strong trap (T6 at 21.3%). The most likely winner on fundamentals. AI Pick flagged as structural case is stronger than the prediction.
Class bump from A7 with low career average (40) makes this a tough ask. Strong trainer signal (22%) is the only positive. Likely to run honestly but without winning.
Will set the pace but lacks the class to sustain it. Below-average trap, below-average trainer, and modest ratings make her the pace-setter rather than the winner.
Decent closing speed (CS 87, speed 54) but recent form has dipped to 39 and suitability doesn't support involvement. Needs pace ahead that this field may not provide.
Best structural draw (T1 dominant at 22.7%) but questionable class for A6 480m with avgP just 29. The trap advantage is real but the dog may not be good enough to capitalise.
LOW SEPARATION race — R3 composite outperforms R1, meaning ratings are effectively noise at this grade. Headford Minella is drawn in the DEAD T3 trap (9.1%), creating a fundamental structural conflict with the pick.
T1:22.7% T2:14.0% T3:9.1% T4:18.8% T5:18.6% T6:21.3%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Detroit Blu | 53 | 37 | All-Rounder |
2Darbys Rainbow | 57 | 25 | Fader |
3Headford Minella | 26 | 100 | Closer |
4Darbyshill Bono | 48 | 34 | All-Rounder |
5Gripper Dan | 45 | 100 | Closer |
6Knock Voodoo | 52 | 63 | Closer |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.