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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Brosna Dollyb 2y 14 | R Williams — 15% R321 W47 P156 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | 46 | 45 (3) | 49 (4) | 33 (6) | 52 (4) | 31 (2) | 52 (3) | 27 (6) | 45 (6) | 67 (1) | 49 (3) | 47 | 45 | - | 40 | 50 | 48 | 2 | 3/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Point Breakd 2y 110 | J R Hall — 21% R330 W69 P186 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 39 | 91 (1) | 58 (2) | 58 (2) | 60 (2) | 51 (4) | 56 (2) | 53 (3) | 73 | 55 (2) | - | 12 | 21 | - | 17 | 52 | 40 | 6 | 7/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Last Dance Hoffab 3y 110 | K S Harrison — 17% R348 W58 P193 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 60 | 57 | 72 (1) | 68 (1) | 45 (4) | 49 (5) | 72 (1) | 47 (4) | 70 (1) | 43 (6) | 45 (5) | 46 (3) | 39 | 27 | 31 | 30 | 51 | 44 | 5 | 2/1F | |
| 4 | ▶ Rockmount Ravend 4y 14 | D T Smith — 16% R403 W64 P196 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 52 | 54 (3) | 54 (3) | 52 (4) | 58 (3) | 62 (5) | 67 (1) | 59 | 45 (6) | 54 (5) | - | 26 | 24 | 37 | 26 | 46 | 39 | 3 | 5/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Zaconey Maximusd 3y 8 | I E Walker — 13% R241 W32 P113 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 57 | 38 (5) | 41 (6) | 55 (3) | 43 (5) | 36 (6) | 46 (5) | 54 (2) | 40 (5) | 67 (1) | 62 (1) | 34 | 30 | 29 | 28 | 53 | 45 | 4 | 10/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Lynnia Mickd 2y 6 | M T Field — 22% R237 W52 P126 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 47 | 62 (3) | 61 (2) | 67 (3) | 63 (3) | 72 (1) | 51 (3) | 58 (3) | 55 (2) | 48 (4) | 86 (1) | 43 | 40 | - | 40 | 56 | 51 | 1 | 9/4 | |
The predicted winner but drawn in the most severe structural headwind on the entire Dunstall Park card — T6 wins just 8.4% from 83 runs at A5 480m. That means roughly 1 in 12 winners come from T6, which is catastrophically low. As a Closer (EP 23, CS 100) with minimal early pace, he'll be well behind early from the widest draw. Average performance 55 is the highest in the field and his most recent 59 confirms good current form. Speed 56 is also field-leading, giving him a genuine finishing kick. Suitability is moderate: track 43, distance 43, trap 47. The model has projected him as the winner, likely weighting the speed and performance advantages. But the structural case is dire — dead trap plus Closer plus widest draw is a triple negative. He needs all three Faders to weaken AND a clear passage to close through the field. Trainer M T Field at 22% is strong-tier.
DANGER: Dominant trap (T1, 23.8%), best suitability (trap 51, track 48), Fader pace to exploit the rail, and near-best form (avgP 54). The strongest structural case in the race — AI Pick flagged.
Closer with EP 0 from a below-average trap with poor suitability. Needs everything to go right. Unlikely to feature.
Improving form (54 recent) and decent Fader pace but modest suitability and below-average trainer. Pace contributor rather than a winning chance.
Strongest early pace (EP 66) but Fader from a below-average trap with declining form (42 recent). Will set the tempo for others rather than winning.
Near-dominant trap (T2, 21.3%) but individual trap suit of 13 means the dog can't exploit the structural advantage. Decent form (avgP 53) but suitability conflict limits confidence.
T6 is severely dead (8.4%) — the worst trap at any grade today. The prediction places the pick in this dead trap. T1 (23.8%) and T2 (21.3%) dominate. Brosna Dolly in dominant T1 with Fader pace has the strongest structural case.
T1:23.8% T2:21.3% T3:15.2% T4:14.8% T5:18.6% T6:8.4%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Brosna Dolly | 51 | 46 | All-Rounder |
2Point Break | 40 | 100 | Closer |
3Last Dance Hoffa | 61 | 0 | Fader |
4Rockmount Raven | 0 | 100 | Closer |
5Zaconey Maximus | 56 | 9 | Fader |
6Lynnia Mick | 49 | 54 | All-Rounder |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.