| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Roanna Dizzyb 2y 17 | R Williams — 15% R321 W47 P156 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 39 | 52 | 46 (3) | 44 (4) | 36 (4) | 57 (1) | 47 (2) | 30 (6) | 32 (5) | 32 (5) | 35 (5) | 35 (6) | 25 | 23 | 31 | 23 | 38 | 33 | 4 | 12/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Alfie Solomonsd 5y 24 | G B Ballentine — 15% R107 W16 P56 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 32 | 42 (3) | 38 (4) | 45 (2) | 48 (2) | 56 (1) | 38 (5) | 45 (3) | 49 (4) | 24 (2) | - | 46 | 23 | 40 | 29 | 36 | 35 | 2 | 10/3 | |
| 3 | ▶ Darbyshill Divab 3y 7 | R Williams — 15% R321 W47 P156 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 46 | 32 (4) | 43 (2) | 31 (6) | 34 (6) | 32 (5) | 36 (6) | 59 (1) | 44 (4) | 48 (3) | 51 (2) | 18 | 32 | 20 | 30 | 46 | 39 | 1 | 5/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Fast Walkd 2y 18 | I E Walker — 13% R241 W32 P113 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 64 | 34 (6) | 35 (5) | 46 (3) | 45 (4) | 44 (4) | 43 (4) | 41 (3) | 40 (5) | 46 (3) | 54 (3) | 10 | 17 | 16 | 23 | 43 | 34 | 3 | 11/4 | |
| 5 | ▶ Longacres Giftb 2y 5 | P A Holder — 12% R142 W17 P67 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 43 | 66 (1) | 47 (3) | 50 (4) | 66 (1) | 44 (5) | 49 (4) | 46 (3) | 37 (5) | 46 (4) | 52 (1) | 35 | 23 | 23 | 29 | 45 | 39 | 5 | 1/1F | |
The predicted winner sitting in the mega-dominant T3 trap — 34.7% win rate from 49 runs at Dunstall Park A7 480m. That is more than double the expected 16.7% and represents the most extreme trap bias on the entire card. While the sample is smaller than ideal (49 runs), the magnitude of the advantage is so large that it remains significant. Darbyshill Diva has the highest average performance in the field at 47 and an All-Rounder profile (EP 50, CS 50) that gives her tactical flexibility — she can lead, track, or close depending on how the race unfolds. Recent form shows consistency: 48 last time, and she's been in the mid-40s to high-40s across her recent runs. Suitability is modest: track 34, distance 32, trap 17, class 22. The individual trap suit of just 17 from the mega-dominant T3 is a concern — it means she personally hasn't capitalised on the trap as often as the aggregate suggests. But with the highest avgP in a five-runner field and an adaptable pace profile, she's well-placed. Trainer R Williams at 18% is moderate.
DANGER: Best early pace (EP 68, bend 61, speed 54) but drawn in the dead T4 (13.0%). Will lead but the Fader profile (CS 0) and dead trap create significant headwinds. Needs to build an unassailable lead.
Recent 49 is encouraging but career avgP of 33 and Closer profile from a neutral trap make winning difficult. Place chance if pace collapses.
Structurally strong T1 (20.6%) but declining form (32, 35 recent runs) makes capitalising unlikely. The trap helps but the dog isn't at her best.
Zero early pace, worst suitability in the field (trap 5, track 10, class 0), and Closer profile with no proven venue form. Very hard to see any path to involvement.
T3 is extraordinary at 34.7% from 49 runs — more than double expected. Sample is smaller but the magnitude is overwhelming. R1 composite wins 25.0%, providing moderate separation. Darbyshill Diva in the mega-dominant T3 with the best avgP creates strong convergence.
T1:20.6% T2:19.6% T3:34.7% T4:13.0% T5:18.6% T6:12.5%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Roanna Dizzy | 56 | 9 | Fader |
2Alfie Solomons | 20 | 100 | Closer |
3Darbyshill Diva | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
4Fast Walk | 68 | 0 | Fader |
5Longacres Gift | 0 | 100 | Closer |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.