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Doncaster 483 Maiden
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Are You Sureb 4y 24 | C A Williams — 15% R367 W54 P178 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 23 | 43 | 54 (4) | 50 (3) | 31 (5) | 53 (4) | 31 (5) | 39 (6) | 61 (1) | 49 (4) | 48 (6) | 49 (5) | 9 | 31 | - | 27 | 60 | 47 | 6 | 25/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Gaytime Orlab 2y 25 | S Watson — 31% R408 W126 P285 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 34 | 57 | 72 (2) | 72 (3) | 86 (2) | 41 (1) | 32 (3) | 41 (1) | 34 (2) | 62 (3) | 60 (1) | 43 (2) | 51 | 45 | - | 25 | 68 | 58 | 3 | 11/10F | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Magical Bossd 2y 25 | S Watson — 31% R408 W126 P285 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 36 | 37 | 48 (4) | 40 (4) | 39 (4) | 59 (1) | 61 (1) | 43 (4) | 44 (2) | 58 (2) | 47 (6) | 62 (3) | 37 | 50 | - | - | 55 | 51 | 4 | 6/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Ferryforth Codyd 3y 36 | D Calvert — 17% R550 W91 P312 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 69 | 69 | 59 (5) | 64 (2) | 80 (2) | 90 (1) | 73 (2) | 87 (1) | 79 (2) | 67 (4) | 83 (1) | 61 (3) | 28 | 65 | 15 | 59 | 71 | 64 | 1 | 13/8 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Ballymac Ivannab 3y 25 | S J L Lapidge — 18% R319 W57 P182 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 61 | 56 | 81 (3) | 75 (2) | 69 (3) | 85 (1) | 84 (1) | 71 (3) | 67 (3) | 80 (2) | 74 (2) | 40 (4) | 18 | 52 | 30 | 39 | 62 | 53 | 2 | 6/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Neon Jetd 2y 22 | J Andrews — 20% R238 W48 P130 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 91 | 30 | 78 (5) | 56 (1) | 44 (3) | 77 (5) | 61 (1) | 46 (4) | 78 (6) | 60 (1) | 73 (4) | - | 25 | - | - | - | 61 | 48 | 5 | 12/1 | - | |
The standout profile — AP 71 is field-best, speed 69 is field-best, bend 69 is field-best. A pure Closer (EP 0, CS 100) who'll close from the rear through the field of tiring Faders. Seven C&D runs with 4 wins (57%) is an exceptional conversion rate — well above the 25% strong-signal threshold. Suitability is strong: track 65, distance 59. Form is consistently excellent: 71, 67, 78, 68, 81, 64 — peaks of 81 and 78 with a floor of 64. The one concern is T4 at OR 483m which wins only 11.6% — a structurally poor trap. But the race shape (three CS 0 Faders ahead guaranteeing pace collapse) overrides the trap concern. He doesn't need a good trap — he needs the pace to come back, and with three Faders it will.
DANGER: The only Fader with enough speed to potentially hold off the Closer. If Cody gets blocked or runs wide through the final bend, Ivanna's early-pace advantage might just survive the 483m trip.
Speed 23 at OR level is a disqualifying weakness. No closing speed actually exists when the raw speed is this low.
Will lead but will be caught. Three Faders means a hot pace that compounds the fade at 483m.
Pacemaker for the yard. No winning chance at this AP level.
T4 and T6 are structural death traps at OR 483m (11.6% and 6.7%). Three EP 100 Faders will create a hot pace that collapses — classic closer's race. Ferryforth Cody's 57% CD from 7 runs is the standout signal.
T1:18.8% T2:20.0% T3:22.0% T4:11.6% T5:18.6% T6:6.7%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 483m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Are You Sure | 0 | 100 | Closer |
2Gaytime Orla | 100 | 0 | Fader |
3Magical Boss | 100 | 0 | Fader |
4Ferryforth Cody | 0 | 100 | Closer |
5Ballymac Ivanna | 100 | 0 | Fader |
6Neon Jet | 0 | 100 | Closer |
Only runs at exactly 483m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (483m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 275m | 450m | 483m | 500m | 661m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Are You Sure | — | 0.631 | 0.634 | — | — |
| 2 | Gaytime Orla | 0.624 | 0.622 | 0.623 | — | — |
| 3 | Magical Boss | — | 0.628 | — | — | — |
| 4 | Ferryforth Cody | — | 0.620 | 0.619 | — | 0.651 |
| 5 | Ballymac Ivanna | — | 0.635 | 0.619 | — | 0.647 |
| 6 | Neon Jet | — | — | — | 0.595 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.