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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Class | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Rating | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 2 | ▶ Bluejig Duked 2y 16 | D S Davy — 22% R413 W89 P253 Trainer form — last 3 months | 43 | 34 | 78 (1) | 62 (3) | 62 (4) | 59 (2) | 51 (4) | 78 (2) | 17 (4) | 54 (3) | 64 (3) | 48 (4) | 14 | 13 | 10 | 28 | 61 | 32 | 5 | 4/1 | ||
| 3 | ▶ Hawkfield Tiktokd 2y 18 | D S Davy — 22% R413 W89 P253 Trainer form — last 3 months | 45 | 58 | 77 (1) | 69 (3) | 46 (5) | 20 (2) | 38 (5) | 60 (3) | 54 (5) | 76 (2) | 61 (5) | 83 (1) | 36 | 26 | 25 | 32 | 58 | 43 | 4 | 10/3 | ||
| 4 | ▶ Hawkfield Blitzd 3y 6 | A N J Morgan — 14% R1131 W159 P550 Trainer form — last 3 months | 58 | 53 | 63 (4) | 86 (1) | 27 (3) | 70 (2) | 61 (5) | 55 (5) | 53 (5) | 64 (3) | 60 (3) | - | 22 | 34 | 43 | 36 | 59 | 50 | 1 | 6/4F | ||
| 5 | ▶ Good Streakd 4y 15 | A N J Morgan — 14% R1131 W159 P550 Trainer form — last 3 months | 51 | 53 | 60 (4) | 65 (4) | 73 (3) | 46 (6) | 16 (3) | 55 (5) | 63 (5) | 83 (1) | 62 (4) | 82 (1) | 41 | 46 | 28 | 20 | 59 | 48 | 2 | 10/3 | ||
| 6 | ▶ Affleck Salsabilb 2y 14 | C Darch — 22% R383 W84 P213 Trainer form — last 3 months | 51 | 45 | 64 (3) | 60 (4) | 27 (4) | 38 (1) | 26 (4) | 58 (3) | 82 (1) | 27 (4) | 64 (3) | 67 (3) | 56 | 37 | 10 | 20 | 50 | 45 | 3 | 7/2 | ||
Hawkfield Blitz is selected on the clearest single piece of evidence available: a P86 winning performance at A3 460m on May 21st — the highest performance score recorded by any runner across all 14 races on today's card. When a dog is running to that level at exactly this grade and distance, the draw disadvantage (T4, 14.6% at A3 Valley grade-specific) is overridden by class. Speed of 58 is the best in this field, composite rank 1 reflects the model's alignment, and his All-Rounder profile does not carry the Closer penalty that affects two of his rivals. Average performance of 59 is joint-second in the field. The sole structural concern is T4, and the data shows that at A3 Valley 460m it is the worst available draw. But the gap between a P86 winner and the next-best A3 recent form is significant enough to absorb a trap penalty. This is the bet of the race from a conviction standpoint — the grade, distance, and form all align. Medium confidence reflects that T4 concern and the strength of Fader-profile rivals with strong pace figures.
Fader profile suits Valley 460m. avgP:59 (tied with pick), ep:58 (second-best), bend:53, comp rank 2. Most recently ran A2 — a grade above — finishing fourth. T5 is a decent draw. The strongest conventional challenger to the pick.
Best average performance in the field at 61 and won A4 last time. However Closer profile at Valley 460m is the primary concern — tight bends consistently penalise late arrivals. ep:39 and bend:34 are the lowest in the field, confirming he does not generate early pace. Despite class leadership, the profile mismatch at this venue is too significant.
Fader profile — suits Valley 460m. avgP:58, ep:59 (best in field), bend:58 (best in field), speed:45. Won A4 last time (P77). T3 is a decent draw. All three pace metrics are the strongest in the field excluding the pick. Second most likely winner.
Closer profile at Valley 460m — faces the same tight-bend challenge as Bluejig Duke. avgP:50, ep:47, bend:45, speed:51, rank:3. Most recently third at A3 with P64 — on grade and competitive. Profile mismatch is the main barrier despite solid form.
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 460m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
2Bluejig Duke | 39 | 60 | Closer |
3Hawkfield Tiktok | 59 | 39 | Fader |
4Hawkfield Blitz | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
5Good Streak | 58 | 43 | Fader |
6Affleck Salsabil | 47 | 63 | Closer |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.