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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Class | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Rating | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Sawpit Smokeyd 6y 42 | D A Hunt — 5% R40 W2 P26 Trainer form — last 3 months | 53 | 49 | 27 (2) | 23 (2) | 22 (3) | 16 (4) | 37 (2) | 23 (3) | 38 (4) | 34 (5) | 19 (5) | - | 43 | 41 | 22 | 30 | 31 | 33 | 2 | 20/1 | ||
| 2 | ▶ Selker Bay Emilyb 4y 23 | K Dodington — 15% R119 W18 P61 Trainer form — last 3 months | 49 | 47 | 26 (4) | 24 (4) | 29 (2) | 69 (4) | 23 (5) | 28 (5) | 31 (1) | 24 (4) | 25 (4) | 27 (4) | 30 | 31 | 25 | 32 | 31 | 31 | 6 | 16/1 | ||
| 3 | ▶ Clongeel Belleb 4y 46 | G C Wright — 14% R138 W20 P70 Trainer form — last 3 months | 52 | 62 | 44 (4) | 56 (2) | 63 (4) | 65 (2) | 77 (1) | 83 (2) | 37 (1) | 28 (5) | 64 (2) | 38 (5) | 42 | 42 | 50 | - | 60 | 54 | 4 | 10/3 | ||
| 4 | ▶ Alohas Dreamb 2y 23 | T J Nevin — 17% R439 W76 P216 Trainer form — last 3 months | 52 | - | 12 (6) | 18 (5) | 22 (3) | 17 (3) | 16 (1) | 27 (5) | 30 (4) | 23 (2) | 22 (5) | - | 25 | 38 | 33 | 40 | 27 | 30 | 5 | 7/2 | ||
| 5 | ▶ Lively Gezzab 1y 24 | B G Backhurst — 17% R220 W38 P122 Trainer form — last 3 months | 49 | 68 | 43 (2) | 41 (2) | 42 (2) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 45 | 63 | - | 30 | 42 | 43 | 1 | 6/1 | ||
| 6 | ▶ Naughty Bonnieb 1y 26 | D O Pearce — 21% R146 W30 P86 Trainer form — last 3 months | 20 | 0 | 36 (6) | 53 (3) | 60 (1) | 17 (2) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 12 | 61 | 18 | 37 | 43 | 41 | 3 | 8/15F | ||
Lively Gezza is drawn in the dominant structural position at D3 Oxford 253 metres — trap 5 produces 22.64% winners from 159 runs — and she backs this up with a first-bend rating of 68, the best cornering ability in this field. At sprint distances, those two factors are the most important in the analysis. Her track suitability of 63 is the strongest in the race, confirming she knows Oxford well, and a personal trap suitability of 45 from trap 5 adds individual confirmation of the structural advantage. Her most recent runs have been over 450 metres where she has placed twice, so she has form on the board even if the sprint distance is different. The distance suitability of 30 is modest, which tempers confidence slightly.
Top trainer but pure Closer profile makes this trip extremely difficult — the right trainer, wrong race type.
Consistent mid-field finisher but Closer profile at sprint distances means she rarely threatens the leaders.
Most class in field but zero distance wins at 253m — genuinely unproven at this trip despite the ability.
Regular runner at this trip and grade but form figures don't suggest a winning run is imminent.
Structural draw is strong but individual sprint credentials are non-existent — classic case of structural-individual misalignment.
T5 and T6 are both structurally dominant at this sprint distance. The pick (Lively Gezza, T5) has a first-bend rating of 68 — critical at 253m — and a track suitability of 63, the best in the field. Naughty Bonnie in the other dominant trap (T6) has a first-bend rating of zero and near-zero speed rating, making it almost impossible for her to capitalise on the structural position.
T1:16.88% T2:17.62% T3:18.06% T4:19.66% T5:22.64% T6:21.98%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 253m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.