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Star Sports Maiden 435m Trophy
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Miss Monacob 3y 14 | P B Philpott — 18% R129 W23 P72 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | - | - | 26 (2) | 25 (3) | 29 (1) | 24 (2) | 19 (6) | 23 (2) | 24 (2) | 24 (2) | 24 (3) | 17 (6) | 38 | 20 | 27 | 9 | 24 | 38 | 5 | 25/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Mitches Marrad 1y 22 | D Alcorn — 17% R65 W11 P38 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 66 | 50 | 100 (1) | 78 (1) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 3 | 50 | 30 | 30 | 90 | 49 | 1 | 9/4 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Hello My Friendd 2y 13 | C Ingham — 31% R16 W5 P13 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 31 | 100 | 76 (2) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 3 | - | 18 | - | 76 | 28 | 2 | 1/1F | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Hawkfield Lexib 2y 18 | G A Foot — 23% R262 W60 P156 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 59 | 23 | 91 (1) | 53 (3) | 87 (1) | 85 (1) | 56 (4) | 64 (3) | - | - | - | - | - | 28 | - | 47 | 74 | 47 | 3 | 7/2 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Miami Missiond 2y 25 | P B Philpott — 18% R129 W23 P72 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 42 | - | 40 (2) | 42 (2) | 47 (1) | 46 (1) | 33 (4) | 47 (1) | 47 (1) | 41 (1) | 97 (1) | 37 (2) | 65 | 30 | 30 | - | 96 | 38 | 4 | 3/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miss Monaco | Recent form entirely at the bottom D-grades over the shorter 270m sprint - a major step up tonight. | — | Big step up in grade | ||||
| 3 | Mitches Marra | 26.01 | 26.01 | 26.01 | 66 | 0.00 | Only 2 career runs | |
| 4 | Hello My Friend | Sole run was over 450m, not tonight's 435m. | — | Only 1 career run | ||||
| 5 | Hawkfield Lexi | 25.97 | 26.42 | 25.97 | 59 | 0.00 | Model pick | |
| 6 | Miami Mission | Recent form entirely at D1 grade over the shorter 270m sprint - a major step up tonight. | — | Big step up in grade | ||||
This Open contest over 435m is an unusual mix - several runners arrive having spent recent months at much lower grades and shorter sprint trips, making this a genuine step into the deep end for more than one of them. Trap 1 is normally the standout box at this level, but the runner drawn there has been racing at the bottom of the grade ladder over 270m and faces a huge jump in class tonight. Hawkfield Lexi is the one runner with both proven recent form at this near-identical grade and the fastest recorded time in the field, which makes her the most reliable choice in a race full of question marks.
Won last time out with a strong 91-rated performance, stepping up from A3 grade where she'd already shown two wins in her last four starts. Comfortably the fastest recorded time in this field, and her course and distance record is flawless in terms of finishing position - three wins and three places from six runs, meaning she's never finished worse than third here. In a race with several unproven or lightly-raced rivals, she stands out as the one with genuine, recent, relevant form.
Only two career starts, but both were wins - a 100-rated victory over 245m last time out and a win at A5 grade the time before that. That's a small sample and a mix of grades and distances rather than proven form at tonight's exact test, but the raw speed rating here is the highest in the field and the underlying ability looks real. Worth respecting despite the inexperience.
Despite the best draw on paper, this looks a huge step up - every recent run has come at the bottom D-grades over the much shorter 270m sprint, with modest ratings in the 20s. Nothing in that recent profile suggests she is ready to compete in Open company over this longer trip. A significant class and distance rise to take on board tonight.
Just one recorded run, a runner-up finish over the slightly longer 450m trip. Trainer Ingham has the best win rate in the race at 35%, which is worth noting, but there simply isn't enough form to build a confident case either way. The slowest recorded time in the field adds to the uncertainty.
All of the recent form here comes from the bottom D1 grade over the shorter 270m sprint, with modest ratings in the 30s and 40s despite a couple of wins at that lower level. Stepping up to Open company over this longer trip is a substantial ask based on what's been shown so far, regardless of what the raw historical average might suggest.
Key insight: Trap 1 is the strongest box in Open company at 25.5%, but tonight's trap 1 runner has been racing well below this level recently, muddying the usual trap signal. The top-rated dog wins nearly 31% of the time at this level.
T1:25.5% T2:15.9% T3:18.5% T4:17.0% T5:14.7% T6:22.7%
1,008 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 435m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Miss Monaco | — | — | No data |
3Mitches Marra | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
4Hello My Friend | 79 | 0 | Fader |
5Hawkfield Lexi | 15 | 76 | Closer |
6Miami Mission | — | — | No data |
Only runs at exactly 435m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (435m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 245m | 270m | 435m | 450m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miss Monaco | — | 0.616 | — | — |
| 3 | Mitches Marra | 0.591 | — | 0.598 | — |
| 4 | Hello My Friend | — | — | — | 0.614 |
| 5 | Hawkfield Lexi | — | — | 0.607 | — |
| 6 | Miami Mission | 0.609 | 0.593 | — | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.