Hollyoak Cleo is the projected winner based on the highest form figures in this field — she's posted a pair of seconds in her last two starts over course and distance and her consistency in the mid-to-high 20s is better than most at this grade. Her speed rating of 55 is the best in the race, giving her a pace edge if she can break on terms. The major concern is the trap 1 draw, which is structurally dead in D4 sprints at Central Park, winning just 12.6% from 190 runs — well below the expected rate. That's a powerful headwind that her modest ability advantage may not overcome. Her trap suitability of 41 suggests she handles the rail better than the average dog drawn there, but the aggregate data is hard to ignore. Trained by R W Butler at 20%.