| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Hitthelids Mateod 2y 15 | N J Deas — 16% R387 W62 P198 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 42 | 54 | 28 (5) | 36 (3) | 46 (2) | 28 (5) | 58 (1) | 30 (5) | 48 (3) | 56 (5) | 36 (1) | 25 (4) | 32 | 24 | - | 17 | 38 | 36 | 4 | 4/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Freyas Tigerb 2y 17 | D D Porter — 16% R472 W77 P252 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 68 | 44 | 55 (2) | 34 (5) | 47 (4) | 33 (5) | 56 (2) | 50 (3) | 38 (4) | 33 (6) | 44 (2) | 45 (4) | 9 | 26 | - | 18 | 44 | 47 | 1 | 11/4 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Glasheen Buckod 2y 36 | A Welch — 13% R302 W40 P140 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 21 | 31 | 24 (6) | 29 (4) | 41 (1) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 32 | 23 | - | - | 30 | 3 | 5 | 5/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Eagles Krakend 1y 10 | A M Kibble — 24% R230 W55 P138 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 58 | 52 | 58 (1) | 38 (4) | 29 (6) | 44 (3) | 34 (6) | 58 (1) | 26 (5) | - | - | - | 23 | 25 | - | 26 | 42 | 49 | 2 | 15/8F | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Mustang Miamarb 2y 5 | A Welch — 13% R302 W40 P140 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | 50 | 42 (4) | 45 (3) | 40 (4) | 37 (3) | 36 (5) | 39 (4) | 50 (2) | 33 (6) | 34 (5) | 48 (2) | 17 | 10 | - | 7 | 41 | 41 | 3 | 3/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Flickering Kingd 3y 15 | P V Swadden — 23% R88 W20 P47 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 39 | 59 | 39 (4) | 26 (6) | 34 (4) | 56 (1) | 48 (2) | 45 (3) | 31 (6) | 55 (1) | 35 (4) | 39 (4) | 24 | 21 | - | 22 | 40 | 34 | 6 | 20/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hitthelids Mateo | 27.59 | 27.99 | 28.44 | 42 | +0.85 | Fader profile | |
| 2 | Freyas Tiger | 27.48 | 27.48 | 27.48 | 68 | 0.00 | Fastest, Rank 2 pick | |
| 3 | Glasheen Bucko | 28.42 | 28.42 | 28.42 | 21 | 0.00 | Best trap, slowest in field | |
| 4 | Eagles Kraken | 27.52 | 27.94 | 27.53 | 58 | +0.01 | Won last time out | |
| 5 | Mustang Miamar | 27.62 | 27.85 | 27.65 | 56 | +0.03 | Worst trap today | |
| 6 | Flickering King | 27.79 | 28.16 | 28.19 | 39 | +0.40 | Fader profile |
Towcester's 460m trip sits between the track's sprint and staying tests, and in this modest B4 grade the data points to trap 3 being the standout draw historically — nearly a 30% win rate from a small but consistent sample — with traps 4 and 5 the weakest, both around the 12-13% mark. The model's top-rated dog has actually underperformed at this exact combination lately, converting barely one in eight, while the second-rated dog has done much better at roughly one in four — a signal worth taking seriously rather than defaulting to the raw top rating. Freyas Tiger goes fastest on the clock by a distance and looks the type to be doing her best work in the closing stages after racing on the front end early. Eagles Kraken arrives full of running after winning last time out and rates highest on paper, but he's drawn in one of the weaker boxes and the market here has burned punters following the top-rated dog blind. Glasheen Bucko sits in the best trap but his own figures are modest and there's little to suggest he's anything more than a place player.
The fastest dog in this field by a clear margin on the clock, and she does her best work from off the pace — a dangerous combination when the pace up front is likely to be moderate rather than blistering. She was second last time out and her peak recent figure of 56 a few runs back is well clear of anything the rest of this field has shown. The condition data at this exact grade and trip actually favours the second-rated dog over the top-rated one, which is exactly where she sits — a rare case worth backing rather than fading. Trap 2 isn't the standout draw here but with the pace and closing speed she has, that matters less than for a would-be leader.
Won last time out at the grade below and steps up here full of confidence — that recent winning figure is well clear of anything this field has managed lately, and he carries the best trainer strike rate in the race. The catch is the draw: trap 4 has been one of the two weakest boxes at this course, distance and grade, and the top-rated dog specifically has a poor recent record at this exact combination. On sheer form he's the one to beat, but the numbers say the draw could undo him.
Fast away and tends to be there early, but the profile shows a habit of losing ground in the closing stages, and his pace consistency figure is poor — this is a dog whose effort varies significantly from run to run. Recent form has been up and down, third-last-time after a run of modest placings, and the trainer's overall strike rate sits in the mid-teens. There's enough raw early speed to make the front but not enough to suggest he goes on and wins it.
Sits in the best-performing trap at this course, distance and grade by some distance — almost 30% of races here have gone to trap 3. The trouble is his own figures don't support cashing in on it: he's the slowest recorded time in the field, has had only three runs back from a break, and while his trajectory has been improving run to run, he's coming from a low base. The trap gives him a puncher's chance of nicking a place if things go his way, but there's little evidence he can trouble the pace-setters.
A consistent if unspectacular sort, rarely far away and rarely threatening to win — six runs reading 42, 45, 40, 36, 36, 39, about as level a formline as you'll see. Balanced early pace but nothing that stands out, and trap 5 has been the single weakest draw at this course, distance and grade. Needs things to fall apart in front to figure prominently.
Shows early pace but the profile suggests he tends to lose that advantage as the race wears on, and his pace consistency figure is poor, meaning his effort varies sharply between runs. Recent form has bounced around without a clear trend and the trainer's overall record, while solid at 24%, hasn't been translating into wins with this dog lately. Others in the race have stronger claims.
Key insight: In a small sample at this grade, the top-rated dog (13.5% win) has actually underperformed the second-rated dog (24.4% win) — a rare case where fading the raw top rating pays off. Trap 3 is comfortably the best draw at 29.3%.
T1:19.5% T2:17.1% T3:29.3% T4:12.2% T5:12.8% T6:~19%
241 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 460m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Hitthelids Mateo | 60 | 0 | Fader |
2Freyas Tiger | 0 | 100 | Closer |
3Glasheen Bucko | 38 | 100 | Closer |
4Eagles Kraken | 50 | 48 | All-Rounder |
5Mustang Miamar | 50 | 52 | All-Rounder |
6Flickering King | 61 | 0 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 460m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (460m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 270m | 460m | 500m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hitthelids Mateo | 0.610 | 0.609 | — |
| 2 | Freyas Tiger | — | 0.597 | 0.612 |
| 3 | Glasheen Bucko | 0.602 | 0.618 | — |
| 4 | Eagles Kraken | — | 0.607 | — |
| 5 | Mustang Miamar | — | 0.605 | — |
| 6 | Flickering King | — | 0.612 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.