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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Classic Waltzd 2y 27 | A M Kibble — 24% R230 W55 P138 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 39 | 45 (4) | 61 (1) | 34 (5) | 48 (3) | 51 (5) | 64 (3) | 81 (1) | 72 (2) | 56 (4) | 65 (2) | 36 | 18 | - | 18 | 54 | 32 | 5 | 11/2 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Coppice Ariesd 2y 7 | C L Conley — 28% R57 W16 P33 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 56 | 60 (1) | 47 (3) | 41 (4) | 61 (1) | 45 (4) | 32 (2) | 38 (5) | 45 (5) | 50 (4) | 36 (5) | 27 | 34 | - | 37 | 47 | 44 | 6 | 4/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Dreamin Lennond 2y 7 | C L Conley — 28% R57 W16 P33 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 46 | 39 (3) | 59 (2) | 60 (1) | 60 (1) | 50 (2) | 49 (4) | 50 (3) | 55 (5) | 87 (2) | 66 (4) | 33 | 39 | - | 41 | 55 | 45 | 2 | 11/4F | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Curly Seand 3y 4 | D D Porter — 16% R472 W77 P252 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 51 | 38 (3) | 51 (3) | 49 (2) | 60 (1) | 50 (2) | 36 (5) | 35 (2) | 32 (5) | 29 (5) | 47 (1) | 48 | 44 | - | 36 | 44 | 46 | 3 | 4/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Ballymac Pallasb 3y 8 | A M Kibble — 24% R230 W55 P138 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 55 | 51 (3) | 51 (2) | 44 (3) | 45 (3) | 45 (4) | 43 (3) | 61 (1) | 35 (5) | 39 (5) | 69 (2) | 43 | 15 | - | 14 | 48 | 43 | 1 | 3/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Ballymac Geniusd 2y 8 | A M Kibble — 24% R230 W55 P138 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 48 | 41 (5) | 45 (3) | 39 (6) | 62 (5) | 51 (2) | 55 (2) | 48 (4) | 64 (1) | 61 (1) | 43 (3) | 24 | 32 | - | 25 | 49 | 43 | 4 | 4/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Classic Waltz | 27.05 | 27.31 | 27.13 | 49 | +0.08 | Inconsistent pace | |
| 2 | Coppice Aries | 27.11 | 27.32 | 27.17 | 46 | +0.06 | Best trap, won LTO | |
| 3 | Dreamin Lennon | 26.76 | 27.24 | 27.63 | 47 | +0.87 | Fader profile | |
| 4 | Curly Sean | 27.18 | 27.25 | 27.19 | 47 | +0.01 | Top rated, distance step-up | |
| 5 | Ballymac Pallas | 26.90 | 27.23 | 27.10 | 53 | +0.20 | Fastest in field | |
| 6 | Ballymac Genius | 26.66 | 27.16 | 27.73 | 48 | +1.07 | Worst trap, 0 wins |
A good-class B1 heat over Towcester's 460m trip, a distance where the numbers here are thinner than the sprint and staying trips earlier on the card, so any trap pattern should be treated as a lean rather than gospel. That said, trap 2 has been notably productive in this small sample, winning well more than a third of these races, while trap 6 has drawn a blank altogether. Coppice Aries sits in that productive box tonight and arrives full of running after winning last time out at the grade below, backed by the best trainer strike rate in the field. Curly Sean rates highest on the model but steps up sharply from a 270m sprint last time, a different puzzle entirely to tonight's staying test. Dreamin Lennon shows plenty of raw early speed but the profile suggests she gives that up before the finish, a poor match if the race is truly run.
Won last time out at the grade below and arrives full of confidence stepping up here, finishing strongly from off the pace. He's drawn in the box that has been notably productive at this course, distance and grade — the sample is small so it's more of a lean than gospel, but it's a striking one, with well over a third of winners coming from there. His course and distance record backs it up too, two wins from five starts. Trainer form is the best in the race at 28%, a deliberate booking rather than a hopeful punt. The whole picture — recent win, good box, strong trainer, proven course form — adds up.
Rates highest on the model tonight but there's a real question mark attached — his last run was over the minimum 270m sprint, a completely different puzzle to tonight's step up to 460m, and he shows a fading pace profile that suggests he won't see out a truly run race as well as some in this field. His course and distance record at 460m itself is fair, a win and three places from four starts, so there's something to go on at this specific trip even if the very last run doesn't translate directly. Trainer form is modest at 14%.
Finishes strongly from off the pace but his effort varies sharply run to run, and his last-time performance was a modest fourth. Course and distance form is limited but positive — a win and a place from four starts. Trap 1 has been an unremarkable draw in this small sample. Nothing stands out enough to challenge the leading pair on tonight's figures.
Shows serious early pace on the clock but the profile is a confirmed fader, tending to lose ground once the finish gets serious — over this longer trip that fade is unlikely to be forgiven. Course and distance record is fair, two wins and four places from seven starts. Recent form was a third last time out at the same course, distance and grade. The pace profile is the main concern against her tonight.
Recorded the fastest time of anyone in this field, and races at a nicely balanced pace throughout rather than relying on one phase of the race. Course and distance record is excellent on the surface — nine starts, though only one has produced a win, with two further places. Recent form has been steady without threatening to win, third last time out at the same course, distance and grade. The raw speed keeps him interesting.
Finishes strongly from off the pace and holds a fair course and distance record, two wins and four places from nine starts. The problem tonight is the draw — trap 6 has drawn a complete blank in this small sample, not a single winner from fourteen runs. His last-time run was a modest fifth. The course experience is there but the box is working hard against him.
Key insight: A small sample at this grade — only around 20 runs per trap — so treat the trap 2 figure as a lean rather than a certainty, but it's a striking one: over a third of winners have come from that box, while trap 6 has drawn a complete blank.
T1:15.0% T2:42.9% T3:15.8% T4:16.7% T5:15.8% T6:0.0%
111 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 460m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Classic Waltz | 0 | 100 | Closer |
2Coppice Aries | 0 | 100 | Closer |
3Dreamin Lennon | 85 | 0 | Fader |
4Curly Sean | 91 | 0 | Fader |
5Ballymac Pallas | 51 | 12 | All-Rounder |
6Ballymac Genius | 49 | 88 | Closer |
Only runs at exactly 460m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (460m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 264m | 270m | 450m | 460m | 480m | 500m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Classic Waltz | — | — | 0.608 | 0.594 | — | — |
| 2 | Coppice Aries | 0.595 | — | — | 0.594 | 0.618 | — |
| 3 | Dreamin Lennon | — | — | 0.612 | 0.592 | — | — |
| 4 | Curly Sean | — | 0.600 | — | 0.592 | — | — |
| 5 | Ballymac Pallas | — | — | 0.604 | 0.592 | — | — |
| 6 | Ballymac Genius | — | — | — | 0.591 | — | 0.593 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.