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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Ricos Diamondd 2y 110 | M E Wiley — 19% R510 W99 P262 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 42 | 44 | 64 (1) | 50 (2) | 40 (2) | 32 (4) | 43 (2) | 49 (1) | 41 (2) | 44 (2) | 35 (4) | 29 (5) | 67 | 53 | 28 | 49 | 41 | 49 | 2 | 7/2 | |
| 2 | ▶ Fagans Damselb 3y 26 | M E Wiley — 19% R510 W99 P262 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 42 | 44 (2) | 28 (4) | 35 (2) | 34 (5) | 37 (4) | 40 (3) | 34 (3) | 38 (4) | 48 (1) | 32 (3) | 36 | 35 | 23 | 36 | 40 | 38 | 5 | 7/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Hollywood Jiveb 2y 24 | T S Welch — 16% R118 W19 P56 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | 45 | 31 (5) | 34 (3) | 31 (5) | 33 (4) | 30 (4) | 32 (5) | 27 (6) | 50 (2) | 38 (3) | 46 (4) | 31 | 28 | 36 | 28 | 38 | 34 | 6 | 4/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Snoozing Starb 4y 17 | M E Wiley — 19% R510 W99 P262 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 58 | 49 (1) | 26 (5) | 46 (1) | 36 (4) | 37 (3) | 33 (4) | 40 (3) | 34 (6) | 49 (1) | 36 (4) | 38 | 27 | 32 | 31 | 40 | 37 | 4 | 9/2 | |
| 5 | ▶ Bear Essentiald 3y 6 | D Mullins — 17% R363 W61 P219 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 63 | 47 (2) | 47 (1) | 33 (4) | 45 (2) | 43 (3) | 43 (3) | 50 (1) | 37 (2) | 46 (2) | 50 (3) | 37 | 39 | 37 | 34 | 45 | 41 | 1 | 5/2F | |
| 6 | ▶ Portrush Bobd 2y 27 | K M O'flaherty — 19% R329 W64 P174 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 50 | 42 (4) | 52 (3) | 77 (2) | 50 (3) | 41 (1) | 30 (3) | 42 (6) | 35 (2) | 47 (5) | - | 38 | 46 | 28 | 39 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 11/4 | |
Bear Essential is the structural pick. T5 is anomalously dominant at A9 Romford 400m (24.52% vs typical 13-14%), providing a massive trap advantage worth ~6pp in win probability. Composite (41) is above field average (37). Fader pace profile (EP 55, CS 40) is the structural concern at 400m—high EP with low CS predicts early lead then fade through bends 2-4. However, form line (p3→p3→p1→p1→p5) shows two recent p1s (perfs 51, 49) followed by a p5 drop (perf 35), a pattern consistent with Fader profile but also with form cycling. The p5 recent result is concerning but the prior two p1s demonstrate this dog can win at A9. Trainer Mullins carries 10% strike rate (below average), which is a constraint. The pick is trap-driven: T5's unusual dominance at A9 (24.52%) carries Bear Essential despite Fader durability risk. If the dog handles the pace and doesn't collapse, the trap advantage wins. If Fader profile dominates, Portrush Bob (T6 pure Closer, 32% trainer, 100 CS) capitalizes on the fade.
Highest average performance (48) and best trainer record (32%). Pure Closer identity perfectly counters T5 Fader fade risk. If Bear Essential (Fader) collapses through bends 2-4, Bob's stamina and late pace wins. Outside draw is real obstacle but closing quality is genuine threat.
Closer with best trap suitability (67) and recent p1 at grade. However, T1 not dominant and Closer profile doesn't suit early-pace Romford bias. Form is strong; tactical threat but not likely winner.
Closer with recent back-to-back high perfs (48, 49) showing grade readiness. T2 dominant. However, form volatility (p6 intervening) is concerning. Capable but inconsistent.
All-rounder with dominant trap but lowest composite in field (34). Form inconsistent with mostly 3-5 finishes. Suitability weak across conditions. Outsider status.
Classic Fader from neutral trap. High EP masked by very low CS (30). Form volatile with documented collapse (p6, perf 26). Romford 400m Fader pattern is high-risk.
T5 is exceptional anomaly at A9 Romford 400m (24.52% vs historical 13-14% at lower grades). This unusual bump rewards trap position heavily. However, Fader-profile runners in dominant traps are a documented hazard; the pace sustainability question is live here.
T1: 18.89% | T2: 20.07% | T3: 20.28% | T4: 17.61% | T5: 24.52% | T6: 17.95%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 400m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Ricos Diamond | 47 | 60 | Closer |
2Fagans Damsel | 46 | 74 | Closer |
3Hollywood Jive | 53 | 35 | All-Rounder |
4Snoozing Star | 59 | 30 | Fader |
5Bear Essential | 55 | 40 | Fader |
6Portrush Bob | 0 | 100 | Closer |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.