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DONATE YOUR OLD DUVETS FOR OUR RETIRED GREYHOUNDS
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Reasontobelieved 5y 45 | T S Welch — 16% R118 W19 P56 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 46 | 78 (1) | 43 (5) | 58 (3) | 59 (2) | 59 (4) | 48 (5) | 61 (2) | 42 (5) | 64 (3) | 53 (6) | 53 | 52 | 25 | 47 | 56 | 54 | 3 | 4/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Rural Blueyb 3y 27 | P W Young — 18% R1322 W243 P772 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 59 | 55 | 42 (4) | 26 (5) | 69 (1) | 70 (5) | 55 (2) | 53 (3) | 65 (3) | 50 (2) | 52 (4) | - | 47 | 40 | 50 | 39 | 58 | 51 | 2 | 5/2 | |
| 3 | ▶ Yahoo Jimmyd 3y 16 | P W Young — 18% R1322 W243 P772 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 50 | 40 (5) | 42 (5) | 70 (1) | 46 (4) | 59 (2) | 61 (2) | 47 (4) | 69 (1) | 54 (3) | 55 (2) | 40 | 31 | 15 | 30 | 55 | 46 | 5 | 7/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Rough Ringod 4y 15 | P W Young — 18% R1322 W243 P772 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 48 | 53 (4) | 63 (2) | 69 (1) | 47 (5) | 57 (3) | 69 (2) | 60 (2) | 74 (1) | 61 (3) | 58 (3) | 38 | 40 | 23 | 36 | 61 | 51 | 4 | 5/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Da Blue Tigerd 2y 27 | B Doyle — 15% R240 W37 P122 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 58 | 43 (6) | 59 (3) | 46 (5) | 64 (2) | 44 (5) | 55 (4) | 66 (2) | 62 (4) | 53 (6) | 70 (2) | 45 | 49 | 30 | 44 | 60 | 54 | 1 | 6/5F | |
Da Blue Tiger is the Pred=1 statistical selection and merits the primary pick despite form volatility and Fader archetype concerns specific to Romford 400m conditions. Composite 54 paired with highest bend rating in field (58) and strongest suitability average (track 49, distance 44, trap 45, class 30) positions him as the most well-rounded dog in a LOW separation field. His suitability advantage across all four dimensions—while none individually dominant—creates cumulative advantage that statistical models weight heavily. From dominant T6 (21.11%), he obtains structural advantage despite being in the dominant-trap tier. His recent form (64→44→55→66→62) is volatile but the perf-66 and perf-62 pattern suggests he's competitive at A5 level, with the perf-44 representing an outlier rather than consistent weakness. His pace archetype as Fader (CS 32, EP 57) is the concerning element: at Romford 400m, Faders are notorious for leading through bend 1 then progressively dying through bends 2, 3, and 4. The track profile warning specifically highlights this risk. However, in a LOW separation field where composites are compressed (highest 54, lowest 46, range of just 8 points), statistical advantage is marginal and volatility is expected. Composite marginal advantage (54 vs Rough Ringo's 51) of 3 points is smallest in any of today's four races, but Da Blue Tiger's superior bend (58) and suitability (cumulative) justify Pred=1 status. B Doyle (WR 24%) is the strongest trainer record in the field. The concern is real: Da Blue Tiger is a Fader in a position where Faders struggle (Romford 400m). The mitigation is that composite marginal advantage is real, even if small, and his suitability profile suggests he's arrived at A5 with balanced fitness rather than a quirky fit. Against Rough Ringo's three consecutive wins (form momentum argument), Da Blue Tiger's composite and suitability advantage create statistical justification for Pred=1. The pick is Medium confidence because LOW separation means this race could plausibly be won by four different dogs.
Three consecutive wins with strong recent perfs (71→70→65), composite 51 (within 3 points of pick), dominant trap (T4, 20.7%), All-Rounder archetype (more sustainable than Fader). Form momentum is rising and consistent. Key weakness: suitability scores below Da Blue Tiger's, class suit (23) concerning. In LOW separation race, form momentum is material advantage.
Outstanding suitability profile (track 52, distance 47, trap 53, strongest in field), dominant trap (T1, 20.69%), but recent wins at lower grade (perfs 19, 13) disqualify him as primary contender. Composite 54 is tied with Da Blue Tiger but form trajectory is downward in terms of grade quality.
Best speed (59), dominant trap (T2, 21.95%), strong class suit (50), but Fader archetype (CS 36) with declining form (perf-65 down to 50, 52). Romford 400m Faders are fool's gold; will lead early then fade through middle/back phases. Do not be fooled by early fractions.
Composite 46 (second-lowest), weakest trap (T3, 16.85%), modest suitability all round, volatile recent form (69 four runs ago, recent 54→55→59 inconsistent). Trainer record cannot overcome structural disadvantage. Mid-field/rear finish expected.
LOW separation (2.4pp) indicates highly competitive race where no single dog dominates composite or suitability advantage. Five dominant traps and only one weak trap dilute trap bias. Multiple dogs have genuine claims. Recent form momentum and pace archetype sustainability become critical factors.
T1: 20.69%, T2: 21.95%, T3: 16.85%, T4: 20.7%, T5: 20.63%, T6: 21.11%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 400m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Reasontobelieve | 48 | 59 | Closer |
2Rural Bluey | 56 | 36 | Fader |
3Yahoo Jimmy | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
4Rough Ringo | 50 | 54 | All-Rounder |
6Da Blue Tiger | 57 | 32 | Fader |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.