Loading...
Sunday Roast Lunch at Sunderland Dogs Stakes
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Lemming Schvitzb 3y 18 | G A Stark — 19% R275 W53 P145 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | 50 | 39 (5) | 33 (6) | 33 (5) | 40 (4) | 64 (1) | 43 (4) | 48 (5) | 59 (3) | 58 (2) | 31 (6) | 33 | 29 | 23 | 29 | 62 | 51 | 2 | 9/4F | |
| 2 | ▶ Balmoral Lucyb 2y 24 | D Blackbird — 17% R1088 W183 P589 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | 50 | 68 (2) | 58 (5) | 64 (3) | 58 (2) | 46 (3) | 73 (6) | 54 (1) | 49 (3) | 70 (5) | - | 31 | 45 | - | 42 | 52 | 48 | 4 | 5/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Ferndale Buckod 2y 6 | S Linley — 17% R373 W65 P191 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 55 | 25 (3) | 38 (3) | 63 (5) | 32 (2) | 68 (6) | 53 (1) | 55 (3) | 62 (2) | 49 (1) | - | 48 | 62 | 37 | 58 | 59 | 58 | 1 | 3/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Watermill Aurorab 3y 6 | S Linley — 17% R373 W65 P191 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 56 | 57 (3) | 68 (1) | 59 (2) | 44 (5) | 51 (3) | 55 (2) | 44 (5) | 45 (6) | 52 (2) | 52 (2) | 30 | 32 | 28 | 30 | 59 | 49 | 3 | 5/2 | |
| 5 | ▶ Monleek Delhid 2y 14 | M J Fieldson — 13% R39 W5 P23 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 49 | 41 (4) | 63 (2) | 51 (4) | 48 (3) | 48 (5) | 33 (6) | 56 (2) | 52 (3) | 51 (4) | 48 (4) | 20 | 23 | 14 | 23 | 53 | 42 | 6 | 5/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Upward Scoobyd 3y 24 | M J Fieldson — 13% R39 W5 P23 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | 38 | 54 (2) | 53 (2) | 47 (5) | 53 (4) | 46 (4) | 53 (4) | 69 (1) | 56 (3) | 59 (3) | 51 (2) | 25 | 30 | 22 | 30 | 56 | 46 | 5 | 10/1 | |
Ferndale Bucko is the clear standout in this A6 race and warrants Strong pick confidence. His condition record is exceptional: 4 wins and 7 places from 10 runs at 450m Sunderland (40% win rate, 70% place rate)—significantly exceeding the 24% A6 baseline win rate by 67%. This demonstrates he has mastered these specific conditions and repeatedly delivers wins here. His AP of 59 is second highest (behind Lemming Schvitz's 62 by only 3 points), placing him in strong performance tier. His speed rating of 53 is R2 tier, solid for A6. His early pace of 49 is moderate but adequate. His All-Rounder profile provides flexibility to respond to rivals. Most critically, his suitability metrics are exceptional: track suitability 62 (highest in field by significant margin), distance suitability 58 (highest in field), trap suitability 48 (highest in field)—he is specifically and demonstrably suited to racing at Sunderland 450m. His bend rating of 55 is the highest in field, giving him major advantage at the difficult Sunderland bend where most position changes occur. His trap 3 sits at 28% bias in historical data (favoured). His recent form shows consecutive A5-A6 grade runs, indicating current sharpness. His trainer win rate of 18% is respectable. Combining exceptional condition wins (4w/10r), highest suitability across all dimensions, highest bend rating, and trap advantage, Ferndale Bucko is the dominant choice. His 40% condition win rate versus 24% baseline represents a 67% advantage—quantifiable and decisive.
Lemming Schvitz has highest AP (62) and R1 speed (56), but only 1 win in 10 at 450m Sunderland (10% rate) versus Ferndale's 4 wins. Place specialist only. Condition wins are deciding factor.
Balmoral Lucy has R3 speed (45, lowest in field), moderate CD form (13% win), weak suitability (45/42). Speed deficit vs Lemming and condition deficit vs Ferndale make third-tier only.
Watermill Aurora has highest EP (55) but Fader profile with lowest closing speed (36). Structural weakness at Sunderland where bend recovery matters. Condition record weak (11% win rate).
Castleford Fire has 2 condition wins (respectable) but 20% rate trails Ferndale's 40% dominance. Speed (48, R3) and bend rating (41) both below pick-tier. Second-tier only.
Dunluce Haven rounds out. His AP of 52 is below pick tier. His speed rating of 50 is R2/R3 boundary. His early pace of 47 is low-moderate. His All-Rounder profile is positive. His condition record is 2 wins and 4 places from 9 runs at 450m Sunderland (22% win rate, 67% place rate)—solid but below Ferndale's dominance. His suitability metrics are moderate (33/33/30). His bend rating of 42 is below average. Trap 6 carries above-average bias (27% win %). His trainer win rate of 18%. Similar to Castleford Fire, he has shown wins at conditions but at lower rate than Ferndale. Against the clear condition edge of Ferndale and the speed edge of Lemming, he's third-tier.
A6 base win rate ~24%. Ferndale Bucko dominates with 4w/10r at conditions (40% vs 24% baseline)—exceptional advantage. Speed ratings 45-56 (R2-R3 clustered). Trap 3 shows 28% bias (favours Bucko's trap). Bend rating critical: Bucko's 55 is highest in field.
T1:19% T2:21% T3:16% T4:17% T5:19% T6:20%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 450m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Lemming Schvitz | 51 | 53 | All-Rounder |
2Balmoral Lucy | 51 | 43 | All-Rounder |
3Ferndale Bucko | 49 | 47 | All-Rounder |
4Watermill Aurora | 55 | 36 | Fader |
5Monleek Delhi | 43 | 61 | Closer |
6Upward Scooby | 35 | 78 | Closer |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.