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Harlow Thursday 16th July 2026 (AM)
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Unlikely Maddieb 4y 17 | P S Rea — 17% R492 W83 P267 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | - | 28 (2) | 28 (2) | 25 (3) | 23 (3) | 26 (2) | 30 (1) | 24 (3) | 25 (2) | 19 (4) | 24 (1) | 16 | 37 | 32 | 41 | 26 | 28 | 2 | 9/4 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Dryland Sparksd 4y 15 | J D T Allen — 9% R198 W17 P88 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | - | 24 (3) | 20 (5) | 21 (3) | 18 (5) | 23 (3) | 18 (4) | 19 (6) | 29 (2) | 27 (2) | 24 (3) | 19 | 24 | 26 | 17 | 21 | 22 | 6 | 16/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Savana Monicab 2y 7 | T J Nevin — 21% R485 W100 P253 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | - | 19 (5) | 25 (2) | 28 (2) | 21 (4) | 14 (6) | 24 (4) | 25 (2) | 30 (1) | 21 (6) | - | 27 | 28 | 30 | 29 | 23 | 26 | 3 | 8/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Foxrock Bellb 2y 6 | P Clarke — 14% R438 W63 P229 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 25 (6) | 21 (3) | 31 (5) | 26 (1) | 23 (2) | 21 (3) | 12 (4) | 16 (6) | 30 (6) | - | 19 | 30 | 31 | 23 | 23 | 24 | 4 | 5/2 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Tobergal Poppyb 3y 6 | D R Jinks — 16% R524 W85 P286 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | - | 27 (2) | 31 (1) | 25 (3) | 24 (3) | 20 (5) | 20 (4) | 30 (6) | 19 (5) | 26 (2) | 18 (2) | 26 | 33 | 23 | 30 | 25 | 27 | 5 | 5/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Jamaica Lunab 2y 7 | D R E Ellerker — 18% R722 W129 P384 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 28 (2) | 24 (3) | 31 (1) | 27 (2) | 30 (1) | 23 (3) | 23 (3) | 23 (3) | 26 (2) | - | 38 | 39 | 39 | 37 | 26 | 30 | 1 | 6/5F | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Unlikely Maddie | 15.81 | 15.96 | 15.81 | 54 | 0.00 | Best speed rating | |
| 2 | Dryland Sparks | 15.68 | 16.07 | 16.18 | 48 | +0.50 | Slowing off best | |
| 3 | Savana Monica | 15.88 | 16.06 | 16.07 | 47 | +0.19 | Slowest recent time | |
| 4 | Foxrock Bell | 15.71 | 16.16 | 15.91 | 50 | +0.20 | C&D winner last start | |
| 5 | Tobergal Poppy | 15.80 | 16.05 | 15.81 | 52 | +0.01 | Fader, worst trap | |
| 6 | Jamaica Luna | 15.74 | 15.99 | 16.07 | 50 | +0.33 | Best trap, model pick |
Harlow's 238-metre sprint is run on the tightest circuit in the country, where the first bend decides the race long before the runners reach the back straight. Across all grades trap one is usually the strongest draw at this trip, but tonight's specific D5 numbers flip that on its head — trap six has been the best-performing box in this grade at nearly 22%, while trap five has been the weakest at well under 15%. With no first-bend rating logged for this six, early pace and the jump from the boxes will settle it. Jamaica Luna has the plum draw and the front-running instincts to use it, while Unlikely Maddie brings the fastest raw times in the field from trap one and will take plenty of stopping if she avoids trouble at the bend. Tobergal Poppy, a proven fader who tends to lead and then weaken, has landed in the worst box tonight, which only compounds her chances of holding on late.
Drawn in trap six, which has been the standout performer in this D5 grade at Harlow at nearly 22% — the best of any box tonight — and she has the front-running instincts to make full use of it, leading early in four of her last six starts. Two wins from her last six outings here, including a smart success from this same trap last week, and the independent scoring models are unanimous in rating her the one to beat. She does have a habit of racing wide off the bend, but on a tight circuit like this the box draw more than compensates, and with the trainer's yard ticking over there's little reason to look past her.
The quickest dog in the field on recent times and drawn in trap one, which is usually Harlow's best box overall even though tonight's specific D5 data favours the wider draws. Almost her entire recent form line has come at this exact track and distance, and she's been knocking on the door with back-to-back rated-28 seconds — her best figures of the campaign. The yard isn't among the strongest at this track, but that matters less when a dog is this specialised. If she avoids the traffic that has clipped her a couple of times at the first bend, she's the biggest danger to the selection tonight.
Dropped back to this level after a string of below-par efforts in the grade above, and the switch hasn't sparked an instant turnaround — finishing outside the first three in three of her last four starts. Trap two hasn't been a happy hunting ground in this D5 sample at Harlow, and the yard is managing only a single-figure win rate at the track. There isn't much in the recent form or the draw to get excited about tonight.
A moderate sort who has been in and around the frame without threatening to win recently, finishing fifth last time out having looked better in the two starts before that. Trap three sits mid-table for this grade at Harlow, and her trainer's win rate of around a quarter of runners offers a little encouragement. On the balance of recent form, though, she looks more likely to pick up another place than to win.
Won at this course and distance last month from a similar draw and has continued to run creditably since being stepped up to the grade above, finishing third last time out. Trap four has been solidly competitive in this D5 sample and she has the early speed to be involved from the boxes. She needs to find a little more than her most recent figures to trouble the front two in the market, but the course and distance win is a genuine positive.
A confirmed early-pace type who shows plenty of speed from the boxes but has a tendency to lose ground in the closing stages, and tonight she's landed in trap five — comfortably the weakest performing box in this D5 sample at well under 15%. That combination of a fading run style and the poorest draw makes her hard to fancy, even though she was a close-up second last time out.
Key insight: Trap 6 has been the strongest box in this D5 sample at nearly 22% from over 1,000 runs, while trap 5 is the weakest at under 15% — a reversal of Harlow's usual trap-1 bias.
T1:16.8% T2:16.2% T3:19.9% T4:18.6% T5:14.7% T6:21.8%
6,733 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 238m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 238m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (238m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 238m | 415m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Unlikely Maddie | 0.670 | — |
| 2 | Dryland Sparks | 0.675 | — |
| 3 | Savana Monica | 0.675 | — |
| 4 | Foxrock Bell | 0.679 | — |
| 5 | Tobergal Poppy | 0.674 | 0.687 |
| 6 | Jamaica Luna | 0.671 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.