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ARC Maiden Sprint Trophy
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ King Wilsond 2yREP 5 | S Mavrias — 16% R217 W34 P107 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 50 | 24 (6) | 40 (3) | 37 (4) | 45 (5) | 41 (2) | 34 (4) | 44 (1) | 47 (1) | 46 (1) | 46 (1) | - | 27 | - | 35 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 5/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Francos Mattd 2yREP 28 | K A Schimmefennig — 11% R63 W7 P31 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 69 | 51 | 85 (2) | 70 (4) | 31 (3) | 88 (2) | 30 (4) | 33 (6) | 51 (6) | 33 (4) | 38 (2) | 47 (1) | 28 | 39 | 20 | 36 | 69 | 53 | 1 | 13/2 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Phoenix Izzyb 2yREP 26 | D W Lee — 25% R233 W58 P140 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 62 | 0 | 75 (3) | 73 (1) | 41 (4) | 65 (1) | 60 (1) | 44 (3) | 54 (1) | 44 (4) | 39 (4) | 65 (1) | 31 | - | - | - | 59 | 32 | 4 | 11/8F | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Droopys Nitebirdb 1yREP 23 | A J Tarpley — 31% R13 W4 P6 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 29 | 0 | 30 (6) | 75 (1) | 57 (2) | 46 (4) | 29 (6) | 63 (1) | - | - | - | - | 2 | - | - | - | 50 | 21 | 6 | 22/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Mucky Murtyd 2yREP 34 | A Kelly-pilgrim — 15% R218 W33 P99 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 43 | 51 | 69 (5) | 34 (6) | 53 (4) | 54 (2) | 60 (1) | 49 (3) | 35 (5) | 47 (4) | 28 (6) | 40 (6) | 14 | - | - | - | 50 | 26 | 5 | 12/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ My Jaspied 1yREP 16 | D P Brabon — 19% R304 W59 P180 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | - | 46 (1) | 66 (5) | 43 (2) | 33 (3) | 47 (1) | 40 (6) | 42 (3) | 46 (2) | 30 (1) | - | 4 | 44 | - | 45 | 66 | 51 | 2 | 6/4 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | King Wilson | 16.35 | 16.61 | 17.04 | 53 | +0.69 | 4 wins from 9, best trap | |
| 2 | Francos Matt | 16.43 | 16.68 | 16.64 | 56 | +0.21 | Model pick | |
| 3 | Phoenix Izzy | 16.72 | 16.72 | 16.72 | 50 | 0.00 | 0 wins from 1 | |
| 4 | Droopys Nitebird | Last run was over 462m — a big drop in trip with no recent sprint form to judge her by. | — | No 277m CP form | ||||
| 5 | Mucky Murty | 17.10 | 17.10 | 17.10 | 31 | 0.00 | 0 wins from 1 | |
| 6 | My Jaspie | 16.40 | 16.63 | 16.47 | 60 | +0.07 | 3 wins from 9 | |
The top grade over the minimum trip at Central Park, run on the tight circuit with its short, congested run to the first bend. The sample at this exact grade is thinner than at the lower grades — under 300 runs — so treat the numbers as a lean rather than certainty, but trap 1 has produced the best return at 18.6% with trap 4 the weakest on just over 12%. This looks a genuinely open sprint with three or four runners who ran creditably in this exact grade and trip last time out. Francos Matt was runner-up in almost identical conditions last start and carries the best average form in the race, My Jaspie brings the fastest recorded time and an outstanding course and distance record after stepping up from a lower grade, and King Wilson has an excellent record at this trip from the best-performing trap in the field. This is a case of picking between several legitimate contenders rather than a standout.
Runner-up last time out in almost identical conditions — same grade, same trip, same track — beaten only narrowly with a strong rating of 85. Carries the best average recent form in the race, with a run of scores in the fifties, sixties, seventies and eighties across his last six starts showing genuine consistency at this level. A balanced runner who can race handy or come from off the pace, which gives him options whichever way the race is run. Not drawn in the very best trap, but the recent form at exactly today's conditions is the strongest single piece of evidence in the race.
Drawn in trap 1, the best-performing box at this grade and trip, and backs the draw up with an outstanding course and distance record — nine runs for four wins and five places, a strike rate few in this field can match. His last run was a well-beaten sixth at an easier grade, but that came after crowding trouble rather than a genuine lack of ability, and the fastest recorded time in this field shows the pace is there. The combination of the best trap and the best course and distance form makes him a serious player.
The fastest recorded time in the entire field and a genuinely excellent course and distance record — nine runs for three wins and five places, a third of his starts here ending in victory. Won last time out at the easier D1 grade and now steps up to face the top grade for what looks like the first time, which is the one query given he's unproven at this level. If he takes the step up in his stride, the pace and course and distance form make him a big danger to all.
Finished third last time out in the same grade and trip with a decent rating of 75, showing she's competitive at this level. A confirmed closer with very little early speed, which is a tough combination at a track where the first bend is so congested and decisive. Only one run at this course and distance to judge her by, so the sample is thin.
Drops back sharply in trip tonight after her last run was over 462m, nearly double this minimum distance, and she's never raced this course and distance combination before. The slowest recorded time in the entire field by some distance is a serious concern, and a confirmed closer facing a big cut in trip is rarely a good combination. Hard to make a case for her tonight.
Finished fifth last time out in the same grade and trip, though the underlying rating of 69 wasn't disgraced given the traffic that can happen in these sprints. One of the slower recorded times in this field, and only a single run at this course and distance to go on. Others have stronger claims tonight.
Key insight: A relatively small sample at the top grade over this trip — the top-rated dog on the composite score has converted at only 18.7%, below the levels seen at the lower grades here, so this is a race where genuine analysis of pace and draw carries extra weight.
T1:18.6% T2:13.2% T3:13.7% T4:12.2% T5:17.7% T6:16.4%
287 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 277m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 277m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (277m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 277m | 330m | 400m | 462m | 491m | 525m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | King Wilson | 0.600 | — | — | — | 0.614 | — |
| 2 | Francos Matt | 0.602 | — | — | — | 0.622 | — |
| 3 | Phoenix Izzy | 0.604 | — | 0.617 | — | — | 0.565 |
| 4 | Droopys Nitebird | — | — | — | 0.626 | — | — |
| 5 | Mucky Murty | 0.617 | 0.567 | — | — | 0.622 | 0.578 |
| 6 | My Jaspie | 0.600 | — | — | — | — | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.