Loading...
ARC Bitches Trophy
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Lets Go Lucieb 2yREP 45 | S Mavrias — 16% R217 W34 P107 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 33 | 36 | 56 (5) | 86 (4) | 66 (5) | 100 (1) | 74 (4) | 82 (2) | 62 (4) | 69 (2) | 66 (4) | 88 (1) | 52 | 20 | 23 | 7 | 74 | 20 | 5 | 7/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Headford Lilyb 2yREP 26 | M L Locke — 26% R303 W78 P181 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 68 | 59 | 62 (4) | 92 (1) | 57 (5) | 46 (4) | 71 (3) | 91 (1) | 73 (3) | 78 (2) | 91 (1) | 73 (2) | 1 | 47 | 54 | 47 | 71 | 56 | 2 | 10/11F | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Crossbarb 3yREP 26 | K A Schimmefennig — 11% R63 W7 P31 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 62 | 65 | 81 (2) | 65 (2) | 77 (3) | 53 (5) | 40 (2) | 30 (6) | 40 (3) | 82 (3) | 51 (6) | 85 (2) | 32 | 27 | 20 | 23 | 71 | 54 | 1 | 7/2 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Lil Bo Beepb 2yREP 43 | D W Lee — 25% R233 W58 P140 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 28 | 0 | 52 (6) | 59 (5) | 66 (2) | 78 (2) | 85 (2) | 84 (2) | 88 (1) | 55 (5) | 57 (6) | 56 (4) | 36 | - | 17 | - | 67 | 34 | 6 | 6/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Barnfield Storyb 2yREP 5 | N F Carter — 19% R257 W50 P134 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 50 | 71 (3) | 58 (4) | 69 (4) | 46 (5) | 68 (2) | 87 (1) | 46 (6) | 89 (1) | 71 (5) | 62 (4) | 37 | 38 | 26 | 30 | 66 | 55 | 3 | 5/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Ask The Universeb 2yREP 15 | G Andreas — 14% R249 W36 P120 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 50 | 57 (5) | 77 (2) | 92 (1) | 47 (5) | 67 (3) | 70 (3) | 88 (1) | 63 (4) | 92 (1) | 63 (2) | 3 | 50 | 17 | 39 | 70 | 49 | 4 | 16/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lets Go Lucie | 29.56 | 29.79 | 30.00 | 33 | +0.44 | 0 wins from 3 | |
| 2 | Headford Lily | 29.07 | 29.10 | 29.10 | 68 | +0.03 | Model pick | |
| 3 | Crossbar | 29.13 | 29.35 | 29.13 | 62 | 0.00 | 0 wins from 4 | |
| 4 | Lil Bo Beep | Last run was over 400m — never raced this trip at this track before. | — | No 491m CP form | ||||
| 5 | Barnfield Story | 29.17 | 29.65 | 29.26 | 53 | +0.09 | 2 wins from 9 | |
| 6 | Ask The Universe | 29.04 | 29.52 | 29.86 | 48 | +0.82 | 3 wins from 10, best trap | |
Central Park's 491m trip is run on a track that looks galloping on paper but plays tight in practice, thanks to a difficult first bend and a short run-up into it. Trap 2 has historically been the trap to be in at this course over standard trips, and while tonight's live figures put trap 6 marginally ahead at 20% to trap 2's 18.1%, both are comfortably clear of trap 1 down at just 14.7%. The extra distance compared to the minimum trip does give closers slightly more time to work into a race than they would over the sprint, which helps a couple of confirmed closers in this field. This is a track where the model has historically struggled to add much value even when several factors stack together, so this should be treated as a leaning rather than a confident selection — Headford Lily brings the fastest recorded time in the field, the best course and distance strike rate, and a good draw, but nothing here should be backed with total conviction.
The fastest recorded time in the field and by some margin, and her course and distance record backs that up impressively — three runs at this exact track and trip for two wins and two places. Her last run was a close-conditions effort over 500m at a similar level, finishing fourth but not disgraced. A confirmed closer, but the extra distance over the minimum trip gives her a bit more time to work into contention than she'd get at a sprint, and trap 2 has traditionally been one of the stronger boxes at this course over standard trips.
Finished second last time out in exactly today's conditions with a strong rating of 81, the best recent figure of anyone in this field. Second-fastest recorded time too, and races as a front-runner who can hold a lead rather than a pure closer, which is a workable profile at a track where the first bend is so decisive. Four runs at this course and distance without a win is the one blemish, but two places show he's competitive here every time.
Her last run was actually over the longer 664m trip, so tonight is a slight cut back in distance rather than the exact conditions she's shown her best form at. Three runs at this course and distance without hitting the frame is a concern, and the slowest recorded time in the field backs up that modest record. Drawn in the weakest trap tonight too. Others have much stronger claims.
Steps up from 400m to this longer trip for the first time at this track, and there's no course and distance form to judge her by. One of the slower recorded times in the field, and a confirmed closer facing an unfamiliar distance is a tricky combination to have confidence in.
Finished third last time out in exactly today's conditions, a solid effort, and carries a good course and distance sample of nine runs with two wins and three places. Races as a front-runner who tends to fade late, which asks a question over this trip, but the sheer volume of solid course and distance form keeps her firmly in the picture.
The biggest course and distance sample in the field with ten runs, three wins and five places, and she's drawn in the trap that's edged narrowly ahead as the best performer at this grade tonight. Her last run in identical conditions was a quieter fifth though, so the very recent form isn't quite as sharp as her overall record suggests. Still has to be respected on the volume of proven form here.
Key insight: Even when several signals stack together, Central Park's 491m trip has been one of the harder venues in the country to convert into winners — treat any pick here as a lean rather than a confident selection.
T1:14.7% T2:18.1% T3:15.7% T4:18.5% T5:15.3% T6:20.0%
874 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 491m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Lets Go Lucie | 0 | 100 | Closer |
2Headford Lily | 14 | 100 | Closer |
3Crossbar | 100 | 0 | Fader |
4Lil Bo Beep | 0 | 100 | Closer |
5Barnfield Story | 86 | 0 | Fader |
6Ask The Universe | 92 | 0 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 491m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (491m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 277m | 400m | 480m | 491m | 500m | 525m | 664m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lets Go Lucie | — | — | — | 0.607 | — | 0.553 | 0.619 |
| 2 | Headford Lily | — | 0.616 | 0.597 | 0.593 | 0.585 | — | — |
| 3 | Crossbar | 0.599 | — | — | 0.598 | — | — | — |
| 4 | Lil Bo Beep | — | 0.611 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5 | Barnfield Story | 0.592 | — | — | 0.604 | — | — | — |
| 6 | Ask The Universe | — | — | — | 0.601 | — | — | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.