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Homing Dogs With Home Run Hounds Stakes
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Churchill Boyd 2y 18 | L Cook — 22% R122 W27 P74 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 52 | 74 (3) | 49 (6) | 64 (3) | 69 (2) | 88 (4) | 87 (1) | 76 (1) | 65 (2) | 69 (2) | - | 43 | 42 | 45 | 35 | 70 | 53 | 1 | 9/4JF | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Braceys Boyd 2y 25 | J Gray — 21% R203 W42 P128 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 28 | 82 (1) | 63 (3) | 64 (4) | 60 (3) | 77 (3) | 71 (3) | 54 (4) | 86 (1) | 58 (4) | 64 (3) | 38 | 26 | 27 | 27 | 69 | 50 | 3 | 11/4 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Noteworthyb 3y 14 | F Macklin — 18% R213 W38 P107 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 34 | 45 | 58 (5) | 64 (3) | 51 (3) | 49 (4) | 52 (4) | 23 (1) | 16 (4) | 16 (4) | 77 (2) | 71 (5) | 31 | - | 11 | - | 50 | 36 | 4 | 7/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Untold Realb 3y 25 | J Gray — 21% R203 W42 P128 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 50 | 61 (3) | 64 (2) | 82 (1) | 60 (3) | 54 (4) | 63 (3) | 63 (4) | 68 (2) | 64 (4) | 77 (2) | 29 | 30 | 28 | 33 | 65 | 45 | 5 | 9/4JF | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Headford Tarab 2y 19 | E Saville — 17% R81 W14 P47 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | 67 | 74 (2) | 82 (1) | 75 (1) | 62 (3) | 64 (5) | 73 (2) | 63 (4) | 74 (2) | 62 (4) | 58 (5) | 32 | 34 | 24 | 46 | 71 | 55 | 2 | 10/3 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Churchill Boy | 30.29 | 30.56 | 30.66 | 50 | +0.37 | Consistent | |
| 2 | Braceys Boy | 30.11 | 30.57 | 30.60 | 54 | +0.49 | Best trap, LTO win | |
| 3 | Noteworthy | 30.69 | 30.84 | 30.98 | 34 | +0.29 | Slowest | |
| 4 | Untold Real | 30.28 | 30.62 | 30.75 | 48 | +0.47 | Fader, T4 weak | |
| 5 | Headford Tara | 30.21 | 30.58 | 30.36 | 56 | +0.15 | Model pick |
Another 500m race where the first bend does the sorting — trap two is the standout box at this A2 grade (21.9%) with trap four the one to avoid (14.5%). Five go to post after a withdrawal. Headford Tara arrives as the fastest and highest-rated dog in the field, with solid course and distance form to match, though she's drawn just outside the very best box. Braceys Boy, fresh off a win stepping up from A3 and drawn in the prime trap two slot, is the most obvious danger. Churchill Boy has claims on consistency, while Untold Real's fading pace profile is a poor match for the outside-favouring trap four draw he's landed.
The fastest dog in the field and the highest-rated on the model, with a good level of consistency (87%) behind a run of solid form (74, 82, 75, 62, 64, 73). Placed last time out and has two wins from ten runs at this course and distance. Trap five isn't the very best box at this grade but it's far from the worst, and on raw ability this is the one to beat.
Won last time out stepping up from A3 grade and now draws trap two, the standout box at this level (21.9% winners). Very consistent (94%) and two wins from ten runs at this course and distance, backed by a trainer on a strong 30% strike rate. A closer who needs the pace to be strong in front, which the inside draw and this shape of race should help provide.
Very consistent (88%) with two wins from ten runs at this course and distance, and placed last time out. Trap one hasn't been the force at this grade that it sometimes is at Nottingham, sitting mid-table for this level. An all-rounder who can adapt to how the race unfolds, which offers some versatility even from a moderate draw.
Placed last time out and has a win from eight runs at this course and distance, but the fading pace profile — fast away, loses ground late — is a poor match for trap four, statistically the weakest box at this A2 grade. The trainer's 30% win rate is a plus, but the combination of trap and running style works against him here.
The slowest recorded time and lowest average rating in this field, coming off a run of modest form (58, 64, 51, 49, 52, 23) after stepping up sharply from A6 grade. Only two runs at this course and distance, both without a placing higher than third. A big step up in class that looks a tough ask on current evidence.
Key insight: Trap two is clearly the best box at this A2 grade (21.9% from 283 runs), trap four the worst (14.5%). Composite rank one (21.5%) and speed rank one (20.2%) are closely matched, both usable signals at this grade.
T1:16.7% T2:21.9% T3:20.4% T4:14.5% T5:19.2% T6:15.0%
1,479 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Churchill Boy | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
2Braceys Boy | 27 | 100 | Closer |
3Noteworthy | 0 | 100 | Closer |
4Untold Real | 82 | 0 | Fader |
5Headford Tara | 61 | 28 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 500m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (500m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 415m | 480m | 500m | 548m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Churchill Boy | — | — | 0.611 | — |
| 2 | Braceys Boy | — | — | 0.611 | — |
| 3 | Noteworthy | 0.659 | — | 0.617 | 0.633 |
| 4 | Untold Real | — | 0.615 | 0.612 | — |
| 5 | Headford Tara | — | — | 0.613 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.