Loading...
The Future Of Racing: PGR TV Stakes
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Piemans Fairyb 3y 25 | S J Spillane — 14% R103 W14 P55 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 30 | 53 (4) | 60 (2) | 38 (4) | 54 (5) | 65 (3) | 60 (4) | 64 (4) | 77 (1) | 78 (1) | 56 (5) | 40 | 32 | 65 | 25 | 58 | 31 | 6 | 5/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Legsintheaird 2y 6 | A S Mcpherson — 12% R290 W35 P121 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 55 | 77 (1) | 64 (3) | 73 (1) | 45 (5) | 70 (3) | 32 (5) | 53 (5) | 71 (1) | 60 (2) | 36 (6) | 39 | 30 | 17 | 42 | 62 | 49 | 4 | 7/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Doubtful Diamondb 2y 6 | J Gray — 21% R203 W42 P128 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 60 | 49 | 69 (2) | 59 (3) | 59 (3) | 55 (4) | 56 (5) | 58 (3) | 32 (3) | 66 (5) | 75 (2) | 79 (3) | 9 | 20 | 28 | 19 | 63 | 51 | 1 | 9/4JF | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Churchill Queenb 2y 6 | L Cook — 22% R122 W27 P74 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 66 | 73 (1) | 61 (3) | 74 (1) | 48 (4) | 60 (2) | 67 (1) | 52 0 | 59 (4) | - | - | 38 | 34 | 27 | 42 | 63 | 51 | 2 | 3/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Honour Boomerangb 1y 24 | A S Mcpherson — 12% R290 W35 P121 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | 50 | 57 (3) | 45 (5) | 68 (2) | 53 (4) | 83 (1) | 61 (3) | 53 (4) | - | - | - | 11 | 23 | 23 | 20 | 59 | 40 | 3 | 7/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Lynnia Maxd 3y 6 | J Llewellin — 15% R372 W56 P209 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 49 | 78 (1) | 56 (4) | 52 (5) | 70 (2) | 60 (2) | 68 (3) | 59 (2) | 80 (1) | 58 (1) | - | 28 | 30 | 26 | 29 | 61 | 47 | 5 | 9/4JF | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Piemans Fairy | 30.69 | 30.77 | 30.93 | 49 | +0.24 | 0 wins/9 CD | |
| 2 | Legsintheair | 30.63 | 30.93 | 30.76 | 49 | +0.13 | LTO winner | |
| 3 | Doubtful Diamond | 30.09 | 30.80 | 30.78 | 60 | +0.69 | Model pick | |
| 4 | Churchill Queen | 30.58 | 30.83 | 30.72 | 53 | +0.14 | LTO winner | |
| 5 | Honour Boomerang | 30.54 | 30.92 | 31.16 | 45 | +0.62 | Worst trap | |
| 6 | Lynnia Max | 30.68 | 30.87 | 30.89 | 48 | +0.21 | Fader, T6 |
Nottingham's 500m trip runs to a short run to the first bend, and the data leaves no doubt about what that means: traps one to three have accounted for 60-70% of winners here, with trap five the graveyard trap at under 17%. In this particular A4 grade the bias tightens further onto trap three specifically, which has produced the most winners of any box at this level (22.3% from over 350 runs). Bumping at the bend is common and outside dogs routinely lose ground they never get back. Doubtful Diamond gets the plum draw in trap three and looks the one to beat if she can convert placed efforts into a win. Legsintheair, fresh off a win last time and drawn just as favourably in trap two, is the biggest danger to a repeat. Churchill Queen and Piemans Fairy both hold place claims from the inside draws, while the trap six and trap five runners face a stiffer task simply getting into the race from where they're drawn.
The fastest dog in the field on recent clockings and drawn in trap three, which has been the standout box at this exact grade and trip, producing more winners than any other draw. Been knocking on the door with a level, consistent sequence of finishes (69, 59, 59, 55, 56, 58) at A4 level throughout, and the trainer's 30% win rate here is one of the best on the card. The one weakness is that eight runs at this course and distance haven't yet produced a win, only places — but the pace and the draw both point her way, and this looks the moment it clicks.
Won last time out with the best recent figure on the card outside of the selection, and drawn in trap two which sits comfortably inside the favoured zone at this track. Three wins from nine runs at this course and distance is a strong record, even if the form is up and down elsewhere (77, 64, 73, 45, 70, 32) — she shows fast early pace but tends to lose ground late, a shape that can still work from an inside box where she won't need to come from off the pace. The trainer's win rate is modest, the one mark against her.
Also won last time out and has been metronomic at this course and distance — three wins from ten runs here, including a win each of her last two visits. Drawn in trap four though, just outside the favoured inside zone at this track, which has historically cost dogs who get crowded at the first bend. An all-rounder who can race handy or come from behind, and the trainer's 24% strike rate is solid without being outstanding. Would have strong claims from a better box.
Draws the traditionally strongest trap at this track overall, though the A4-specific data favours trap three slightly more. Nine runs at this course and distance have produced two wins but nothing recently — the last four visits have all ended in defeat. Form has been modest all year (53, 60, 38, 54, 65, 60) and the trainer's win rate is the weakest of the field at 14%. The draw is the main thing in her favour.
Drawn in trap five, statistically the weakest box at Nottingham over this trip and worth under 17% of winners. A consistent, honest sort who finishes her races (86% pace consistency) but the slowest recorded time in this field and a trainer strike rate of just 6% count against her. A place looks the realistic ceiling from this draw.
Fast away but fades late, a pace shape that can work at some tracks but is a tough combination from trap six at Nottingham, where outside dogs routinely lose ground at the tight first bend and rarely get it back. Seven course and distance runs have produced one win, and the overall form (56, 52, 70, 60, 68, 59) is unremarkable. Needs a truly clean break to be involved.
Key insight: Trap three is the standout box at A4 grade over this trip (22.3% from 367 runs), a shift from the track's overall trap one bias. Composite rank one wins 26.4% at this grade, above the track's overall 22.3% baseline.
T1:18.2% T2:20.6% T3:22.3% T4:18.5% T5:16.7% T6:19.7%
1,796 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Piemans Fairy | 46 | 63 | Closer |
2Legsintheair | 61 | 14 | Fader |
3Doubtful Diamond | 38 | 79 | Closer |
4Churchill Queen | 54 | 37 | All-Rounder |
5Honour Boomerang | 39 | 63 | Closer |
6Lynnia Max | 100 | 0 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 500m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (500m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 305m | 480m | 500m | 525m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Piemans Fairy | — | 0.622 | 0.618 | — |
| 2 | Legsintheair | — | 0.626 | 0.619 | — |
| 3 | Doubtful Diamond | 0.603 | — | 0.616 | — |
| 4 | Churchill Queen | — | — | 0.617 | — |
| 5 | Honour Boomerang | — | — | 0.618 | 0.576 |
| 6 | Lynnia Max | — | 0.604 | 0.617 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.