Won his last start at D6 with a massive performance of 64 — head and shoulders above anything else he or his rivals have produced recently — and now steps up to D5 on the back of it. His trap draw is the obvious concern: trap 4 wins just 8.2% at Valley sprints, which is a catastrophic position statistically. However, his performance average of 31 is solid for this level, and the D6 win showed a level of ability that could easily translate to D5 where the rest of this field has been running fourth and fifth. His trainer runs at 16% which is below average. The speculative confidence reflects the tension between genuinely impressive last-time form and the worst possible trap draw — it could go either way, but the form gives him the edge over the consistent-but-never-winning types in the field.