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Craven's Chase
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Ada Leckie Runb 2y 27 | J Sharp — 23% R87 W20 P48 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 56 | 18 (4) | 16 (5) | 29 (5) | 20 (1) | 19 (4) | 19 (5) | 20 (4) | 22 (4) | 21 (4) | - | 29 | 37 | - | 39 | 48 | 43 | 3 | 7/2 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Mustang Gracieb 5y 25 | D L Fretwell — 15% R160 W24 P97 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | - | 22 (6) | 25 (5) | 26 (6) | 31 (4) | 34 (3) | 24 (5) | 30 (2) | 41 (1) | 25 (6) | 37 (1) | 24 | 32 | 20 | 35 | 55 | 46 | 2 | 5/2 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Chasing Evieb 3y 6 | D L Fretwell — 15% R160 W24 P97 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 74 | 29 (4) | 35 (3) | 36 (2) | 25 (5) | 37 (3) | 33 (3) | 44 (5) | 42 (1) | 35 (2) | 37 (1) | 29 | 32 | - | 48 | 60 | 52 | 1 | 5/2 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Janies Laneb 4yN/R 55 | A R Upton — 19% R97 W18 P58 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 28 | 44 | 32 (5) | 44 (5) | 41 (3) | 50 (2) | 22 (2) | 20 (6) | 19 (4) | 19 (4) | 22 (3) | 15 (5) | 26 | 25 | - | 28 | 51 | 42 | - | - | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Nathans Jetb 2y 6 | L A Taylorson — 16% R243 W40 P135 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 59 | - | 26 (4) | 36 (1) | 31 (3) | 26 (4) | 26 (4) | 25 (5) | 29 (4) | 21 (3) | 30 (6) | - | - | 20 | 7 | 20 | 54 | 42 | 4 | 5/4F | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Signature Leed 4yN/R 25 | L A Taylorson — 16% R243 W40 P135 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 39 | 25 | 48 (3) | 47 (4) | 34 (6) | 52 (4) | 33 (4) | 32 (5) | 54 (3) | 20 (4) | 21 (4) | 50 (2) | 24 | 26 | - | 23 | 51 | 42 | - | - | - | |
Everything aligns here. Best AP in the field at 60, best early pace at 72, best bend rating at a dominant 74 — and drawn in T3 which wins 29.3% from 157 runs at D3 280m, the highest trap win rate by a massive margin. At 280m sprint, the combination of best EP + best bend + best trap is virtually unbeatable — she'll be clear at the first bend and the race is effectively over. The Fader profile (CS 30) is completely irrelevant at 280m — the trip is over before the fade kicks in. Form shows genuine ability with a 76 perf two runs ago and consistent mid-50s to low-60s otherwise (55→51→76→61→63). C&D record of 3 runs, 1 win (33%) — small sample but positive. Distance suit 48 is field-best. Trainer Fretwell at 20% is average but the dog's structural advantages override the trainer signal entirely.
DANGER: Second-best AP and speed make her the logical danger, but the poor T2 draw and 10% C&D conversion rate limit confidence. Needs Chasing Evie to miss the break.
Second-fastest early but the AP gap and class step up limit her ceiling. Will run respectably but unlikely to feature at the business end.
Closer from a sprint distance with the worst speed in the field and zero C&D wins from 6 attempts. The data doesn't support her at 280m.
The raw speed of 59 is striking but with no pace data, very low suitability, and just 10% C&D conversion from 10 runs, the speed hasn't translated to wins here. An outside chance at best.
Can be confidently opposed. Closer from the worst trap at a sprint distance with the lowest EP in the field and declining form. The structural mismatch is severe.
T3 dominates at 29.3% from 157 runs — nearly triple T6's 10.8%. In a sprint with Chasing Evie's EP 72 from T3, the structural and pace advantages compound.
T1:18.3% T2:17.5% T3:29.3% T4:21.6% T5:21.1% T6:10.8%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 280m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 280m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.