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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Class | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Rating | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Salacres Logand 4y 15 | P H Harnden — 18% R394 W71 P224 Trainer form — last 3 months | 49 | - | 26 (3) | 22 (4) | 24 (5) | 21 (4) | 31 (1) | 24 (4) | 25 (5) | 28 (2) | 30 (3) | 25 (4) | 26 | 22 | 20 | 14 | 25 | 25 | 4 | 5/1 | ||
| 2 | ▶ Policiab 4y 37 | P B Philpott — 15% R144 W21 P81 Trainer form — last 3 months | 63 | 38 | 27 (3) | 55 (2) | 49 (3) | 67 (1) | 53 (3) | 55 (3) | 53 (3) | 54 (5) | 56 (3) | 67 (1) | 25 | 21 | - | - | 56 | 14 | 3 | 13/8F | ||
| 3 | ▶ Eileens Runb 3y 27 | N J Deas — 17% R456 W76 P249 Trainer form — last 3 months | 32 | - | 32 (1) | 8 (6) | 24 (5) | 23 (6) | 21 (5) | 30 (2) | 30 (1) | 28 (2) | 20 (4) | 31 (1) | 29 | 32 | 37 | 25 | 22 | 4 | 5 | 12/1 | ||
| 4 | ▶ Salacres Annb 3y 15 | P H Harnden — 18% R394 W71 P224 Trainer form — last 3 months | 44 | - | 19 (5) | 22 (4) | 20 (4) | 19 (6) | 26 (3) | 32 (1) | 22 (4) | 21 (5) | 22 (5) | 21 (6) | 23 | 25 | 17 | 9 | 22 | 20 | 6 | 3/1 | ||
| 5 | ▶ Bay City Indyb 3y 25 | D D Porter — 17% R509 W89 P283 Trainer form — last 3 months | 48 | - | 9 (6) | 22 (3) | 25 (3) | 24 (4) | 24 (4) | 24 (3) | 27 (3) | 24 (3) | 23 (5) | 23 (6) | 24 | 5 | - | 3 | 25 | 23 | 2 | 7/4 | ||
| 6 | ▶ Trapstyle Teeb 3y 26 | J M Liles — 19% R429 W82 P226 Trainer form — last 3 months | 58 | 63 | 20 (5) | 43 (4) | 43 (3) | 38 (6) | 53 (3) | 36 (6) | 67 (1) | 50 (3) | 57 (3) | 46 (5) | 24 | 21 | - | - | 47 | 10 | 1 | 22/1 | ||
Policia arrives from A5 and A6 500m racing — a completely different sphere — and her composite of 14 reflects the model's inability to assess a 500m A-grade runner against D4 270m standards. But raw quality tells a different story: her average performance rating of 56 across recent A-grade runs towers over the D4 field, whose average performances cluster in the low-to-mid 20s. Her last competitive run was 2nd at A6 500m — a genuinely high-quality effort. According to the previous session's research, she recorded a trial at 270m with a position 1 finish, which gives at least some evidence she can handle the distance. From T2 — a reasonable 19.7% structural draw at D4 — she should have every chance to translate her class advantage into a win, particularly if the D4 regulars run to their modest ceiling. Confidence is Tentative because sphere changes carry genuine risk and a 270m sprint is a fundamentally different test, but the quality gap between Policia and the native D4 runners is real and substantial.
Best composite among D4 regulars but weak T1 structural position and no recent wins
Very poor recent form including last place at D4 — not a realistic contender at this level
Drawn in the best structural trap but declining form trend limits confidence — each-way at best
Regular D4 runner placing consistently — not the standout and limited track suitability is a concern
Sphere changer off a long break in the worst structural trap — too many questions to be confident
T4 dominates at D4 270m Towcester with 24.0% from 379 runs. T3 and T5 are also strong. T1 and T6 are below average. Composite R1 is a solid signal at 23.9%, but composite is unreliable for sphere changers whose scores reflect 500m A-grade form rather than D4 270m performance.
T1:18.4%(375r) T2:19.7%(416r) T3:21.8%(435r) T4:24.0%(379r) T5:21.6%(297r) T6:17.0%(253r)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 270m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.